By the end of August, the exchange rate of the ruble is expected to remain at around 80 per dollar. Its strengthening below 75 is possible if the parties sign a settlement deal regarding the Ukrainian conflict, experts surveyed by Izvestia believe. At the same time, the MOEX Index has the potential to rise to 3200–3400 points. Overall, the summit in Alaska has created a favorable backdrop; however, concrete outcomes from this meeting will only be clear when the parties move to specific actions. For now, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he does not plan to impose new sanctions or tariffs against Russia or its energy resource buyers. The following material from Izvestia discusses expectations for the oil market and how trade between Russia and the U.S. may change.
Topics Discussed by Putin and Trump in Their August 15 Meeting
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his American counterpart Donald Trump in Alaska on August 15. Among the key achievements of the Anchorage summit was the leaders' acknowledgment of some progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The heads of the two states also discussed other critical issues such as trade, sanctions, and tariffs.
While the summit in Alaska did not yield any legally binding results, it demonstrated that the Russian economy has always been—and will continue to be—part of the global economic system, noted Vadim Kovriggin, an associate professor at the Institute of Economics, Management, and Law at MGPU. It is unlikely that it can be excluded from this system, no matter how much many European countries might wish for that. The summit revealed that the U.S. is ready to continue constructively addressing issues, the expert added.
The positive rhetoric from the meeting creates a favorable information environment; however, the real economic impact will evidently only manifest when declarations turn into concrete actions. The value of the negotiations lies primarily in reducing geopolitical risks, which have long hindered economic development.
When Will Anti-Russian Sanctions Be Lifted?
The U.S. administration has decided to postpone the introduction of sanctions against Russia. According to Trump, there is no current necessity for them. Given the parties' desire to establish economic interaction, including in the Arctic—something Putin mentioned in Anchorage—there could even be discussions about partially lifting restrictions.
In general, the Russian economy is coping with the difficulties posed by sanctions and significant budget expenditures, emphasized Vadim Kovriggin from MGPU. However, lifting the restrictions would provide a substantial boost to its development. At the same time, it is unlikely that this will happen in the near future, as Donald Trump does not make decisions unilaterally.
"The strong anti-Russian lobby is unlikely to allow him to lift even a portion of the sanctions without the conflict in Ukraine ending. Therefore, serious discussions about lifting the sanctions can only commence once the conflict is resolved," Kovriggin believes.
What Will Trade Between Russia and the U.S. Look Like in 2025?
At a press conference following their meeting, Vladimir Putin reminded attendees that trade turnover with the U.S. increased by 20% under the new White House administration. Last year, it reached about $3.5 billion. In contrast, in 2014, it peaked at around $40 billion, noted Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.
Over the past six months, Russian exports to the U.S. have reached $2.5 billion, particularly in fertilizers, uranium, and platinum, pointed out Alexander Timofeev, an associate professor at G.V. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Meanwhile, American exports were at $285 million, mainly comprising vaccines, medical devices, and reagents.
"The trends this year bring positive notes to the forecast; however, the situation's development will depend on further negotiations and specific results. Currently, neither party wants to make any abrupt moves as they understand the implications. This instills confidence that the trend will continue," Alexey Tarapovsky asserted.
The trade turnover between the two countries this year is expected to range from $3.7 to $4.5 billion, according to independent expert Andrey Barkhota. By 2026, he anticipates it exceeding $10 billion amid active development of trading and economic relations between Russia and the U.S.
What Will Happen to the Oil Market?
On Friday, before the summit in Alaska, the oil market closed with a decline in quotes. Brent fell by 1.5%, trading at $66.12 per barrel. On Monday, analysts expect a subdued price response to the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the U.S.
In an interview with Fox News before his meeting with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump suggested that he would not impose additional import tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. Later, he withdrew such measures against China thanks to the progress made in negotiations. This situation resembles lessons from the U.S.-China trade war: more often than not, it ends in a balance of interests and gradual adaptation by both parties, believes Mikhail Diakonov, founder and CEO of Freight Logistics Group.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, supplies of Russian oil will continue, and the impact on the raw material's price will remain minimal for now.
"The imposition of immediate sanctions against Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries is postponed. Now all attention will be on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Zelensky, set for Monday in Washington. It should also be noted that European leaders have not abandoned further pressure on Russia and are already preparing the 19th sanctions package. However, even if a significant breakthrough in the negotiations is achieved, we should expect a fall in prices from current levels. In such a case, I believe OPEC+ will intervene since even today's prices are hardly comfortable," she notes.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, agrees with his colleague. In his opinion, the risks of reducing oil exports, exacerbated after the introduction of U.S. tariffs against India, are now subsiding.
"There’s no reason to expect new restrictions against Russia, which will lead to stabilizing the Urals discount to Brent near $10 per barrel. The long-term consequences can only be assessed in the coming months as the negotiation process progresses," the expert highlights.
Following the summit, Vladimir Putin was the first to make a statement, which indicates a high level of trust in the Russian president from the U.S. administration and the potential for further achieving measured decisions regarding peaceful resolution, emphasizes Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector ("NAANS-Media").
Equally important, in her view, is the proposal put forth by Putin before the negotiations to add the initiative for extending the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires in February 2026, to the agenda.
"The aforementioned statement by the Russian president, combined with the proposal to address security issues in Ukraine and ensure the absence of threats to European countries within the framework of a comprehensive peace agreement, completely dismantles the myth of the 'Russian threat' propagated by the collective West. This myth has allowed for the management of military budgets and the perpetuation of the conflict in Ukraine for four years," Tamara Safonova emphasizes.
The expert believes that following the summit, "investors will react positively to peace initiatives, the prospect of Russian-American cooperation, the reduction of U.S. tariff pressures, and the increased demand for hydrocarbon resources, which will be a positive factor for oil prices."
What Will Happen to the Ruble Exchange Rate and the Market After the Negotiations?
The Central Bank has set the ruble exchange rate for the weekend just above 80 per dollar. For comparison, on August 15, it was 79.76 rubles. The negotiations unfolded according to a neutral scenario, so in the coming week, the dollar is expected to trade around 78–81, says Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Furthermore, the expert did not rule out that the national currency might strengthen below 75 per dollar, but this will only occur if the parties reach a peace agreement regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
Additionally, the market has already reacted to the meeting of the two leaders. The MOEX Index surpassed 3000 points but subsequently fell to 2950 after the summit. Such volatility is characteristic of uncertain periods, adds Professor Nadezhda Kapustina from the Department of Economic Security and Risk Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
In her opinion, by the end of summer, the indicator could reach 3200–3400, provided positive dynamics in the negotiation process continue. The annual horizon suggests potential growth to 3500–3800 points; however, much depends on the practical implementation of agreements, she clarified.
Nevertheless, the dynamics on August 18 will depend on the information that comes in before trading begins, is confident Albert Koroev, head of the stock market expert department at BCS Mir Investitsiy. If no crucial geopolitical statements arise, a consolidation phase following the rollback is possible.
Source: Izvestia
