The appeal of Russian diesel fuel in the global market is increasing in the wake of the Hormuz crisis. Data from the Center for Price Indices (CPI) indicates that exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk reached 1.4 million tons with 29 vessel arrivals from March 1 to 15 alone. This volume is already nearly comparable to the total shipments from the same port for the entire month of February.
In Primorsk, located in the Leningrad Region, fuel storage tanks were damaged due to an attack by Ukrainian drones, leading to a fire, as reported by the regional governor Alexander Drozdenko on March 23. According to Reuters, the port temporarily halted the loading of oil and petroleum products.
Meanwhile, in February, total diesel exports from Russian ports showed a decline, amounting to 2.3 million tons for the month, approximately 30% lower than in January. The primary destination for these exports was Brazil, receiving 680,000 tons of diesel fuel—a 4% decrease month-on-month. Exports to Turkey fell by 28%, totaling 400,000 tons, while shipments to African countries experienced a 46% reduction, amounting to 531,000 tons. Exports to other destinations decreased by 19%, reaching 453,000 tons.
Gasoline is still being exported from Russia to distant foreign markets, but the volumes are minimal, as two industry sources informed RBK. Furthermore, the sales of gasoline via the St. Petersburg Exchange plummeted in March; at the beginning of the month, total daily sales exceeded 50,000 tons, but by March 20, they had decreased to 34,000 tons.
Russia continues to supply petroleum products through intergovernmental agreements (primarily to EAEU countries and Mongolia) even during periods when the export of gasoline and diesel fuel is restricted.
In March, Mongolia's Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, Begzsurengiin Enkhtuvshin, stated that the country would fully meet its fuel needs through imports from Russia, as China has prohibited the export of petroleum products due to the situation in the Hormuz Strait.
The Russian-Mongolian agreement signed in 2024 anticipates the delivery of 1.8–1.9 million tons of petroleum products and 60,000 tons of aviation kerosene annually on mutually beneficial terms.
Will Export Growth Impact the Domestic Market?
Experts surveyed believe that the increase in export revenues for Russian oil companies will lead to higher margins in oil refining and reduce price pressures in the domestic market.
In 2025, oil producers were deprived of substantial export revenues for various reasons, forcing them to "compensate" by raising prices in the domestic market, notes independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov. The net profit of Russian petroleum producers declined by 16% last year, totaling 2.26 trillion rubles. Additionally, oil companies received lower budget payments through the fuel damper mechanism, amounting to 882 billion rubles compared to 1.8 trillion rubles in 2024. All of this contributed to decreasing margins in oil refining.
The 2025 Crisis
Exchange prices for gasoline in Russia hit historical records during the summer and fall of 2025. Retail prices showed a similar upward trend. Heads of certain regions reported fuel shortages at local gas stations.
However, by mid-October, exchange prices began to retreat from their record highs. As explained by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to reporters, this occurred amid export restrictions and increased production following the end of refinery maintenance.
By the end of the year, the government permitted companies with production capacity exceeding 1 million tons of petroleum products annually to export diesel fuel abroad. At the end of January 2026, the export ban on gasoline was lifted for oil companies as well. This permission remains in effect until July 31.
"Now, Russian oil companies have received a 'gift' in the form of rising global petroleum product prices, which will lead to increased margins in oil refining," says Rodionov. Therefore, the expert sees no threat to the domestic market. Thus, the government is unlikely to need to impose an export ban in the coming months, despite seasonal increases in demand from agricultural producers.
According to the National Price Exchange Agency, ahead of the high consumption season, buyers have shown heightened interest in summer diesel fuel, while supply continues to grow since the end of February. This situation is typical for each year: in 2025, by mid-March, summer diesel demand reached 53.3% of total sales.
The Russian fuel market is traditionally in surplus, believes Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market. Until 2022, the ratio of exports to the domestic market was 50-50, and after that, 40-60 in favor of the domestic market, partly due to increased demand for heavy machinery. However, the surplus remains, and it is logical to redirect it to external markets, especially now that the reduction of raw material transit through the Hormuz Strait has led to increases in world prices, he adds.
At the same time, diesel prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange have surged by 20% since the beginning of the month, closing Monday's trading at 67,774 rubles per ton, equivalent to levels seen in mid-September 2025. The prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline during the same period rose by more than 12%, reaching 67,603 rubles and 71,398 rubles per ton, respectively.
Managing Partner at NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, believes that this price increase will be tempered by damper payments. If this does not help stabilize prices, the government will quickly reinstate the export ban. The analyst suggests that such a scenario may occur as early as April.
The essence of the fuel damper is that the government, by providing subsidies to refiners, encourages oil producers to supply more gasoline and diesel to the domestic market rather than for export. If selling fuel abroad is more profitable than within the country, the damper mechanism compensates oil companies for the difference with exports, thereby stabilizing price dynamics. However, if domestic fuel prices exceed specific thresholds, damper payments are nullified.
Tereshkin believes there is no need for export restrictions on diesel fuel. Due to the presence of surplus, its price increase is more moderate than that of gasoline. According to Rosstat, by March 16, accumulated retail price increases for diesel fuel since the end of last year amounted to 1.6%, while gasoline rose by 2.4%, with inflation at 2.6%.
From March 1 to 23, 2026, gasoline sales on the St. Petersburg Exchange totaled 691.21 thousand tons, which is 5.7% higher than in March 2025 and 16.8% more than February of this year, the National Exchange Price Agency reported to RBK. Total diesel sales for March reached 1.2 million tons, an 11% increase compared to the same period last year and 5.1% higher than February 2026. In the second half of March, market participants are indeed observing increased buyer interest in petroleum products. However, the key factor here is the seasonal component: the start of spring fieldwork, increased automobile transport activity, and planned refinery maintenance, the agency added.
RBK reached out to the press office of the Ministry of Energy for a comment.
Source: RBK
