Global Lithium Prices Rise Amid Increased Demand for Batteries. Russia Prepares to Launch Its Own Lithium Mining by 2026 and Reach 28,000 Tons Per Year by 2030. An Analytical Review for Investors.
Global lithium prices are experiencing a new wave of growth amidst expectations of a rapid increase in demand. In early December, futures for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Exchange surged to $13,300 per ton—the highest level in the past year and a half. On the London Metal Exchange, contracts for lithium hydroxide surpassed $10,000 per ton, rising about 6% in just a month. Experts attribute this uptick to the prospects of explosive growth in the battery and electric transportation markets in the coming years.
Analysts forecast that global lithium demand could reach 700,000 to 900,000 tons (in terms of pure metal) by 2026, which is significantly higher than levels seen in the mid-2020s. For comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated global lithium consumption at around 220,000 tons in 2024. While there's a wide range of predictions, all experts agree on one point—consumption of "white gold" will continue to grow at an accelerated pace. By 2030, annual demand may exceed 1 to 2 million tons, reflecting a boom in electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Batteries and Electric Vehicles: The Main Driver of Demand
The rapid increase in lithium usage is primarily driven by the advancement of battery technologies. About 80% of all lithium produced today goes into lithium-ion batteries, mainly for electric vehicles. As the global automotive industry shifts towards electric drivetrains, demand for batteries will grow exponentially. Experts predict that within the next 3 to 4 years, the market for "green" batteries will expand by several hundred percent. By 2028–2030, global annual production of electric vehicles may reach 20 to 25 million units, and along with that, lithium consumption will hit unprecedented levels. Asia accounts for most of the consumption: around 90% of lithium raw materials are processed into batteries in China, South Korea, and Japan. These regions, along with North America, are leading the way in expanding electric vehicle fleets and energy storage capacities.
Who Extracts Lithium: Global Leaders
The global lithium extraction market is currently dominated by a few countries. Australia is the largest producer, accounting for up to 40% of the world's primary lithium. The top three producers are completed by Chile and China. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its presence in the industry: the country is investing in new mines both domestically and overseas and controls about 60% of lithium raw material processing capacity. By the first half of 2025, China's share of global production is expected to reach 28%, and analysts estimate that by 2026, China could surpass Australia to become the world's largest lithium supplier and maintain this leadership well into the mid-2030s. Other players are also expanding production—new projects are underway in Zimbabwe and Argentina. In this race for "white gold," Russia's role is currently minimal; however, its own extraction efforts could eventually position the country among key lithium producers.
Russia: Dependence on Lithium Imports
Despite the global frenzy surrounding lithium, there is practically no lithium mining in Russia at present. Small volumes (around a few dozen tons per year) are extracted only as a byproduct at the Malyshevskoye beryllium deposit in the Sverdlovsk region. The majority of lithium needed by the economy comes from abroad. Experts estimate that Russia's current lithium requirements are approximately 1,000 to 1,500 tons per year (in terms of pure metal), which are fully satisfied by imports from Latin American countries and China. Notably, less than half of this volume is used for battery production domestically; the rest is consumed in the manufacturing of specialty lubricants, refractory ceramics, glass, and other materials.
This dependence on imported strategic raw materials jeopardizes plans for the development of high-tech sectors. While leading world economies actively consolidate control over lithium resources globally, Russia is just beginning to catch up in exploring its own reserves of the "new oil of the 21st century." The country possesses significant lithium resources: according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, proven ore reserves amount to about 3.5 million tons of lithium oxide (equivalent to approximately 1.6 million tons of pure metal). This potential still needs to be transformed into actual production.
State Strategy: Launching Domestic Lithium Mining
In 2025, the Russian government clearly defined a course to eliminate the lag in the lithium sector. In February, at the "Technologies of the Future" forum, President Vladimir Putin publicly expressed concern that lithium extraction in the country is still not established—despite the available opportunities, production could have started 10-15 years ago. On November 1, he instructed the government to approve a "roadmap" for the long-term development of the extraction and production of rare and rare-earth metals (including lithium) within a month. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has been appointed as responsible for this initiative, underscoring the priority of this issue.
Specific goals have also been set. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources plans, by 2030, Russia should produce at least 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually—equivalent to approximately 28,000 tons of pure lithium per year. Achieving such volumes would completely satisfy the domestic market's needs for the metal and even create an export reserve. The Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates that achieving complete "import independence" in lithium will require about six years—thus, by 2030, the aim is to achieve self-sufficiency in the Russian market with its own lithium raw materials.
Key Lithium Mining Projects in Russia
To achieve the outlined objectives, several investment projects at promising mines are already underway or planned:
- Kolmozerskoye (Murmansk Region) — the largest lithium deposit in the country (about 19% of Russia's total reserves). It is being developed by the joint venture "Polar Lithium" (MMC Norilsk Nickel and the mining division of the state corporation "Rosatom"). Ore extraction is scheduled to start in 2028, with full production capacity expected to be achieved by 2030–2031, producing up to 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide per year.
- Polmostundrovskoye (Murmansk Region) — one of the largest lithium deposits in the Kola Peninsula. The license for development was granted to AO “Khalmek” and PJSC “Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant” (project “Arctic Lithium”). Pilot ore extraction began in 2023, and by 2026, production equivalent to 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year is planned.
- Tastygskoye (Republic of Tuva) — a major lithium deposit (around 600,000 tons of lithium oxide). It is being developed by "Elbrusmetall-lithium" (part of the state corporation "Rostech"). The license was obtained in 2023, and construction of the road and mining and processing plant is underway. According to the plan, in 2027–2028, the enterprise will start producing lithium ore concentrate (with accompanying niobium, tantalum, and tin), which will then be processed into lithium carbonate at Russian facilities. The project aims to cover up to half of the country’s internal demand by 2030.
- Kovykta (Irkutsk Region) — an innovative project for extracting lithium from underground brines at the Kovykta gas condensate field. It is being implemented with the participation of PAO "Gazprom" and the Irkutsk Oil Company. In 2022–2023, a technology for sorption extraction of lithium has been developed, and preparation for an experimental-industrial facility is ongoing. If the technology is successfully tested, lithium carbonate production from lithium-rich brines at Kovykta is planned for the end of the decade.
Prospects: Russia on the Global Lithium Map
The realization of the planned projects could fundamentally alter Russia's position in the global lithium industry. Achieving the target of ~28,000 tons per year by 2030 would place the country among the notable lithium producers (for comparison, in 2024 this is more than the annual extraction level in Zimbabwe or Argentina). Such a leap would not only eliminate the domestic market's dependence on imports but also strengthen the raw material base for developing its own high-tech sectors. Facilities for lithium-ion battery production are already under construction in the country—for example, the Rosatom factory for producing battery cells in the Kaliningrad region is expected to launch in 2025. Having its own raw materials and a full cycle of “ore to battery” will allow Russia to reduce costs and risks in the increasingly critical value chain in the fields of electromobility and energy.
For investors, the formation of the lithium sector in Russia opens new opportunities. Major players such as "Norilsk Nickel," "Rosatom," and "Gazprom" are involved in extraction projects, which indicates serious intentions and support at the highest level. State participation and the strategic nature of the programs reduce risks for investors interested in this new segment. Undoubtedly, much will depend on the successful launch of production facilities and the dynamics of the global market, which remains volatile for now. Nevertheless, in the context of the global race for resources for a "green" economy, Russia's determination to secure a respectable position on the world lithium map appears to be a step toward diversifying its raw material base and strengthening the country's technological sovereignty.
