Analysis of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, December 4, 2025: Putin's Visit to India, Macron's Visit to China, Brazil's GDP, US Unemployment Claims, Canada's PMI, and Global Companies' Reports.
Thursday promises a diverse agenda for global market investors. World stock indices—from the American S&P 500 and Japanese Nikkei 225 to the European Euro Stoxx 50 and the Russian Moscow Exchange index—are hovering near recent highs amid signs of easing inflation and soft signals from central banks. Attention is now shifting to fresh economic events and corporate reports: high-level diplomatic visits in Asia, key macroeconomic data (Brazil's GDP, US employment statistics, Canada's PMI), and financial results from several major companies. Investors will need to reconcile these factors with market dynamics: robust growth and employment figures will support risk appetite, while negative surprises could increase volatility.
Macroeconomic Calendar (EST)
- 00:30 — US: Weekly API report on crude oil inventories.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Retail sales (October).
- 15:00 — Brazil: GDP for Q3 2025.
- 16:30 — US: Initial unemployment claims (weekly).
- 18:00 — Canada: Ivey PMI Business Activity Index (November).
Asia
- Asian markets will not receive significant new statistics on this day, meaning regional indices (such as Japan's Nikkei 225 and China's Shanghai Composite) will be guided by external signals. Investor sentiment in Asia largely depends on global trends and news, and the absence of internal data makes them more sensitive to events in the US and Europe.
- Force Majeure: President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to China (December 3–5) continues. Meetings in Beijing aim to strengthen trade and economic cooperation between the EU and China. While no groundbreaking agreements are expected, the mere fact of dialogue between two major economies underscores China's geo-economic significance. For the Asia-Pacific financial markets, the direct impact of these negotiations will be neutral, yet any statements resulting from the visit may temporarily increase volatility in select sectors (e.g., aviation or technology if relevant deals are discussed).
Europe
- The Eurozone is releasing retail sales data for October (13:00 EST). It is expected that the indicator will remain close to neutral following a slight decline in September. The state of consumer demand is an important indicator for Europe’s economic health: an unexpected drop in sales would heighten fears of an economic slowdown, while growth above expectations would bolster European stocks and the euro.
- European markets, in general, are conducting the day without major internal upheavals and will predominantly assess external factors. Attention is focused on the corporate reports from individual companies: for example, German metallurgical company Aurubis is releasing financial results, and British retailer Frasers Group will report on its operational successes. These announcements could cause movement in corresponding stocks, but the influence on the broader European market is expected to be limited. The Euro Stoxx 50 index maintains relatively stable dynamics, reacting mainly to overall signals on the global economy and monetary policy.
Russia
- Russian President Vladimir Putin begins an official visit to India (December 4–5). Talks with Indian leadership will focus on deepening trade ties, energy cooperation (including potential new agreements on oil and gas supplies), and joint investment projects. Signing major contracts—such as in the defense or raw materials sectors—could strengthen Russian corporations' positions in these industries. However, the short-term dynamics of the Russian stock market are likely to reflect this visit weakly, serving more as a strategic factor than a direct market driver.
- No new macro data is expected in the Russian domestic market on Thursday, following the publication of November inflation data the previous day. The corporate earnings season on the Moscow Exchange is nearing its conclusion, with most major issuers having already released their Q3 results. In the absence of fresh internal triggers, investors will monitor external conditions: oil prices, movements in global markets, and exchange rates. The Russian ruble remains relatively stable around 78 against the dollar, supported by export revenues and currency interventions from the Ministry of Finance.
US and America
- Focus in the US is on the state of the labor market. Weekly initial unemployment claims (16:30 EST) will serve as a leading indicator ahead of Friday's key employment report (Nonfarm Payrolls). A significant reduction in the number of new claims would indicate labor market resilience and could strengthen expectations of a tighter Fed policy (putting pressure on bonds and supporting the dollar). Conversely, an increase in claims would signal an economic cooling and weaken arguments for rate hikes, which would be positively received by stock indices.
- In Latin America, the highlight is Brazil's GDP for Q3. Continued moderate growth in the region's largest economy is expected, driven by strong domestic demand and raw material exports. Strong data would bolster investor confidence in emerging markets’ prospects and support the Brazilian Bovespa index, whereas weak GDP could prompt a capital reallocation towards safer assets. Additionally, at 18:00 EST, Canada's Ivey PMI Business Activity Index will be released: this indicator reflects the state of Canadian business in November. A PMI reading above 50 points would indicate economic expansion and could strengthen the Canadian dollar, while a decline in the index could intensify discussions about possible stimulus measures from the Bank of Canada.
- Corporate earnings (US and Canada): Several major companies will report financial results, leading to increased volatility in specific stocks. Even before US markets open, quarterly reports from leading Canadian banks (Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC) and one of the largest US retailers, Kroger, will be known. After market close, reports from technology giant Hewlett Packard Enterprise, cosmetics retail chain Ulta Beauty, discount retailer Dollar General, software developer DocuSign, and others will be released. If the earnings reports exceed expectations, corresponding stocks could surge, setting a positive tone for the sector overall (across financials to consumer goods). Conversely, disappointing results may lead to sell-offs in specific segments and constrain growth in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.
Commodities and Currencies
- The oil market is monitoring the American Petroleum Institute (API) data on crude oil inventories in the US, released overnight. Preliminary estimates indicate a reduction in commercial inventories amid increased fuel consumption during the holiday transportation period. If the actual decline in inventories is greater than expected, Brent and WTI prices will gain additional upward momentum. However, if inventories rise or decrease less significantly, the price rally may pause. Additionally, traders are evaluating the outcomes of a recent OPEC+ meeting and signals regarding future production, which influence medium-term expectations in the oil market.
- Overall, relative equilibrium persists in commodity markets. Industrial metals are trading with slight gains, supported by recovering demand in China, while precious metals are consolidating after recent increases. The currency market reflects a softening in Fed rhetoric: the US dollar index is declining to recent lows, allowing currencies from emerging markets and commodity currencies (e.g., the Canadian dollar) to perform more strongly. The euro and the pound are holding stable against the dollar, buoyed by local data. At the same time, the Russian ruble remains relatively stable, balancing the influence of recent increases in oil prices with domestic factors. Investors are closely monitoring trends in the currency market to timely assess risks for their international portfolios.
What to Watch for as an Investor
- US Labor Market Data: The number of new unemployment claims will provide an early signal regarding the state of the economy ahead of the official employment report. A sharp decline in claims would strengthen growth expectations and could unsettle bond yields, while an increase in claims will support arguments for an upcoming easing in Fed policy.
- Quarterly Reports from Market Leaders: Financial results from companies such as Kroger, Dollar General, HPE, and the largest Canadian banks reflect the health of several sectors—from consumer demand to the banking system. It is important for investors to compare the published figures against forecasts: exceeding expectations could drive up stocks in those sectors, while weak results may trigger declines and reassessment of sector valuations.
- Oil Market Situation: The dynamics of oil prices post-API report on inventories will provide indications for the oil and gas sector. Significant inventory reductions and subsequent price increases will improve sentiment in the energy segment and support export-oriented markets (including Russia), while unexpected inventory growth may temporarily weaken oil futures and related company stocks.
