Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Sunday, February 1, 2026 | OPEC+ and Russia-Ukraine-USA Negotiations

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, February 1, 2026: Russia–Ukraine–U.S. Negotiations, OPEC+ Meeting, and Monthly PMI Releases Along with Reports from S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

The first Sunday of February 2026 sets the tone for a new week, combining geopolitical and commodity drivers. On the global stage, negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine are taking place in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the U.S. A potential breakthrough in this regard could significantly influence investor sentiment around the world. Simultaneously, OPEC+ countries convene a meeting to determine oil policy amid oil prices reaching multi-month highs. The macroeconomic agenda remains relatively calm, with limited data out this weekend. However, starting the new week, markets will receive crucial indicators—PMI indices for manufacturing in China and ISM in the U.S. Corporate earnings season continues, with investors eagerly awaiting results from major companies (both in the U.S., such as Disney, and globally) to assess their impact on stock markets. For the Russian market, key focal points remain external factors—the dynamics of oil prices following the OPEC+ decision, the ruble exchange rate, and the geopolitical situation, with minimal significant domestic events today. Investors from the CIS countries must consider this global landscape while preparing for market openings on Monday.

Macroeconomic Calendar (EST)

Throughout the day – Abu Dhabi, UAE: trilateral meeting of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. regarding the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict (continuation of the negotiation process, discussion of ceasefire terms and territorial issues).
Throughout the day – Vienna, Austria: meeting of ministers from OPEC member states and allies under the OPEC+ agreement (the monitoring committee discusses compliance with production quotas and prospects for oil policy in the coming months).
04:00 (Monday) – China: PMI index for manufacturing in January. An approximately neutral reading of around 50 is anticipated, indicating stabilization in the sector after fluctuations in recent months.
18:00 (Monday) – U.S.: ISM Manufacturing PMI for January. The first important indicator of U.S. economic activity in 2026, reflecting the health of the manufacturing sector and new orders.

Geopolitics: Ukraine Negotiations in Abu Dhabi

Continuation of Peace Dialogue. The second round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. regarding conflict resolution is underway in Abu Dhabi. The first round was held here on January 23-24 and laid the groundwork for further discussions. The central topic of the meeting is territorial disputes, with parties working to find a compromise on control over contested regions. Previous contacts have been assessed as constructive: according to media reports, the delegations were able to substantively discuss parameters for a potential ceasefire and its monitoring mechanisms, instilling cautious optimism.
Positions of the Parties and Prospects. The talks are mediated by the U.S.; however, this current meeting is likely to be predominantly bilateral in nature between representatives from Moscow and Kyiv. Kyiv continues to publicly rule out territorial concessions: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated he is unwilling to compromise on Ukraine's territorial integrity. Moscow, in turn, insists on its "red lines," including the status of Donbas and Crimea as part of Russia. Nonetheless, the focus on the territorial issue signifies that several other topics (e.g., ceasefire regime, humanitarian issues, situation surrounding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) have either already been discussed or postponed. American mediators express hope that this round may bring the parties closer to preliminary agreements. Sources indicate progress on details of a potential agreement and an opportunity to arrive at some framework document that the U.S. will be prepared to support separately with each party.
Markets Watching the Outcome. Investors are viewing these negotiations through the lens of global risk and uncertainty premiums. Any signs of progress—such as an agreement on a long-term ceasefire or a roadmap to a peace agreement—could reduce geopolitical tension. This, in turn, could bolster risk appetite in global equity markets: stocks of European companies and currencies of emerging markets (including the ruble) would receive support from diminished war premiums, while commodity prices (oil, gas, wheat), partially accounting for military risk, may adjust downward. Conversely, if negotiations stall or break down, markets may react by increasing demand for safe-haven assets—gold, the U.S. dollar, government bonds—leading to heightened volatility at the week's start, particularly in sectors sensitive to front-line news (oil, defense sector, European markets).

OPEC+: Meeting on Oil Policy

Expectations of Maintaining Quotas. OPEC+ countries are holding a scheduled meeting where it is expected that existing oil production restrictions will be extended unchanged at least for the first quarter of 2026. Earlier, the alliance agreed to suspend increases in output for February-March, and five delegates in OPEC+ have indicated to Reuters that the current meeting will likely not introduce adjustments to this policy. Key players—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others—have signaled their readiness to adhere to previously agreed production levels, aiming to maintain market balance and keep oil prices at a comfortable level.
Oil Prices and Context. Oil quotes are approaching the meeting at the highest levels since late summer: Brent is trading in a range of around $70–75 per barrel following a rise in January. The price increase has been supported by a combination of factors: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (enhanced U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran and threats of military action) have added an additional risk premium to the market, while unplanned supply disruptions (e.g., recent shutdowns at the large Tengiz field in Kazakhstan) have restricted supply. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ is unlikely to want to increase output—rather, they will maintain a cautious stance to avoid oversupplying the market during a seasonally weaker demand period.
Market Reaction to Oil. The baseline "no changes" scenario has largely been factored into prices and will likely be received neutrally by the market: oil is expected to maintain its current range of fluctuations, and shares of oil and gas companies on global exchanges (including the MOEX index where the commodity sector has a high share) will likely show stable dynamics. However, it is crucial for investors to watch any statements made at the conclusion of the meeting. Any hints at future steps—such as discussions around possible production increases in the second quarter or, conversely, a willingness to maintain constraints until mid-year—could intensify price oscillations. Should disagreements arise between participants or unexpected proposals surface (e.g., unplanned cuts or increases in production), this could add volatility to the oil market: additional constraints might push prices up, while signals regarding potential increases in supply could trigger short-term price declines.

Industrial Sector: PMI in China and ISM in the U.S.

China: Signs of Stabilization. January data on business activity in China's manufacturing sector sets the tone for the entire Asian region. The official PMI index for China is expected to hover around the key mark of 50 points, which separates growth from contraction. By the end of 2025, the Chinese economy faced a slowdown, but stimulus and stabilization measures taken by Beijing (including eased credit policies and support for real estate) could have staved off further declines in manufacturing. If the PMI exceeds forecasts and rises above 50, it will signal an unexpected uptick in activity—such a signal would strengthen commodity markets (from copper to oil) and provide a boost for Asian companies focused on China's domestic demand. Conversely, if the PMI is weak (lower than expected or in the contraction zone), investors may heighten concerns about the recovery of the Chinese economy, negatively impacting currencies and markets of commodity-exporting countries and the overall global risk appetite.
U.S.: First Glimpse at the 2026 Economy. The ISM Index of Manufacturing Activity for the U.S. comes out on Monday and will be one of the first macro signals of the year for the American market. By the end of 2025, the U.S. manufacturing sector was in a state of stagnation, and the consensus anticipates an ISM figure of around 48–50 (at the edge of contraction territory). Investors will closely analyze the index’s components—new orders, employment, pricing pressure. An improvement in ISM (a rise closer to or above 50) would indicate that the manufacturing sector has begun to recover after last year's slowdown: this would support shares of manufacturing companies, machinery, and the commodity sector, and could also result in a rise in bond yields due to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate expectations. Conversely, if the index remains significantly below 50 or declines, markets would interpret this as a signal of ongoing economic weakness—such an outcome might intensify discussions about easing policies from the Fed and lead to a localized reduction in yields, while also raising concerns about corporate profits for industrial giants.
Importance for Markets. The results of China's PMI and the U.S. ISM index will collectively set the direction for global markets at the start of February. Positive surprises in manufacturing indices (activity growth, inventory reduction, improvement in new orders) will bolster investors’ confidence that the global economy can withstand high interest rates and maintain growth—this is a favorable factor for equity markets, particularly cyclical industries (machinery, metallurgy, chemicals). At the same time, interest in safe-haven assets will diminish as recession fears recede. Conversely, should both China and the U.S. deliver weak data, expect the opposite reaction: discussions of a risk of global industrial downturn will intensify, leading to a more cautious market strategy—possible rotation from risk assets into bonds, partial profit-taking in stocks, particularly in sectors dependent on investment demand (e.g., equipment manufacturers, automotive sector). Thus, monitoring the morning PMI from Asia and the subsequent ISM index during the afternoon will be a critical task for investors planning their actions at the week's outset.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Opening (BMO, U.S.)

Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The media giant and Dow Jones component will report its financial results for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year (October-December 2025) before trading begins in the U.S. Attention will focus on the performance of key segments during the holiday period. Investors will evaluate revenue from theme parks and resorts (especially after the rebound in tourism and attendance), the dynamics of subscriber growth for Disney+ and associated profits or losses, as well as box office figures from recent film releases. Equally important will be the management’s statement: the market expects comments from CEO Bob Iger regarding further business restructuring, potential sales of non-core assets (e.g., television networks), and cost-cutting plans. Strong results (beating profit forecasts and growth in subscriber numbers) could drive up Disney's shares and boost optimism across the entertainment and communications sector, while disappointment in the numbers or cautious guidance may trigger declines in valuation, signaling ongoing post-pandemic challenges for the industry.
Other Releases Before the Open. Other major reports expected early in the morning include Tyson Foods (TSN) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX). Tyson, one of the world’s leaders in the agribusiness sector and meat supplier, is reporting against a backdrop of volatile feedstock prices and shifting consumer preferences. Investors will scrutinize Tyson’s profitability: whether the company has managed to pass increased costs onto consumers while maintaining profitability and how sales volumes for chicken, beef, and pork have changed based on price dynamics. These figures will provide benchmarks for inflation in the food sector and consumer demand for basic food products. On the other hand, IDEXX Laboratories—a leading developer of veterinary diagnostic solutions—will present results interesting in terms of spending on pet healthcare. A revenue increase for IDEXX could indicate a resilient demand for pet services even in the face of broader economic uncertainty. In general, the morning reports in the U.S. will establish the tone: strong metrics from Tyson, IDEXX, and other S&P 500 companies will bolster confidence in the resilience of corporate profits, while weakness or deteriorating forecasts will lead investors to start the week with greater caution.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, U.S.)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The well-known big data and analytics platform company will report after the main U.S. session concludes. Palantir operates within the tech sector focusing on AI and security solutions, making its fourth-quarter results for 2025 an area of attention as an indicator of demand for software among government and commercial clients. Key focuses will include revenue growth from public contracts (traditionally a strong area for Palantir, especially amid geopolitical instability) and commercial segment performance (how actively the private sector is adopting their data analytics platforms). Investors will also be looking for information regarding the initial results of the company's AI initiatives announced earlier and comments on profitability: Palantir achieved consistent net profitability for the first time last year, and it’s important to ascertain whether it can maintain positive returns. Any signs of accelerated business growth or optimistic forecasts for 2026 (possibly due to new defense contracts or successes related to the AIP—Artificial Intelligence Platform product) will support further stock growth; in contrast, slowing momentum or a lack of progress in monetizing AI solutions might dampen investor enthusiasm for this popular stock.
Other Companies Reporting After Close. In addition to Palantir, several other well-known issuers will publish results after the close on Monday. These include chip manufacturer NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), whose Q4 results will shed light on the state of the semiconductor industry, especially in the automotive electronics and IoT segments (critical to assess if demand from the automotive sector has held up and whether supply chains are continuing to recover). Additionally, several mid-cap tech and biotech companies will report, while in Asia, results from various Japanese corporations for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year will be released on the same day (for instance, TDK has already announced its report). Although the impact of these individual releases on the broader market may be limited, the overall picture is significant. If, for example, the semiconductor sector (as demonstrated by NXP) shows robust growth and forecasts, it will set a positive tone ahead of larger reports later in the week (with major players like Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon reporting in the coming days). Conversely, unexpectedly weak results from select companies on Monday night could amplify nervousness and volatility in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors should pay attention to sectoral signals: trends identified in these reports will help adjust expectations for S&P 500 companies' earnings going forward.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): For European markets, Sunday is traditionally a quiet day, with no major corporate earnings publications expected. The main annual earnings season in Europe will commence later in February, so early in the week, investor attention in the Eurozone shifts to external factors and macro statistics. Focus will be on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting (crucial for the shares of energy companies and the economies of Norway and the UK), news from Abu Dhabi regarding Ukraine (any reduction in geopolitical tension would positively affect European assets), and data releases from China and the U.S. Regional economic indicators will be published in the coming days: preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone in January is expected on Tuesday, with consensus forecasting a continued slowdown in price growth (annual CPI could dip closer to 2.5%, approaching the ECB's target). In the currency market, the euro holds around the $1.10 mark, while EU countries' bond yields remain stabilized—investors are pricing in a pause in rate hikes by the European Central Bank amid signs of waning inflationary pressure. The absence of internal corporate drivers means that on Monday, European stock indices will likely follow the overarching global trend set by weekend news and the dynamics of U.S. index futures, with possible corrections influenced by local news (such as political events in specific EU countries or fluctuations in natural gas prices).
Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese stock market enters the week without significant new corporate reports on Sunday—most of the country's major companies already reported results for the first half of the fiscal year, with many scheduled to report third-quarter results (October-December) in the first half of February (a number of tech companies are set to report between February 5 and 10). The macroeconomic backdrop in Japan is relatively stable: inflation in Tokyo hovers around ~2.4% year-on-year, which, while exceeding the targeted 2% benchmark, still enables the Bank of Japan to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. Japan's interest rates remain near zero, and the central bank continues to control bond yields (YCC), which keeps the yen in a weakened state—trading around ¥158 per U.S. dollar. A weak yen is by tradition favorable for export-oriented companies, which is one of the factors keeping the Nikkei 225 at high levels in recent months. In the absence of domestic news today, the Japanese index will be influenced by external factors: improved sentiment on Wall Street on Friday and possible positive signals from China (for instance, if the PMI unexpectedly shows growth) could push the Nikkei up at the open. However, any gains in the Nikkei may face limitations if geopolitical uncertainties rise or if investors shift to safe-haven assets: in such scenarios, a strengthening yen as a "safe haven" could temporarily diminish the competitiveness of Japanese exporters and lead to corrections in their stock valuations.
MOEX (Russia): The Russian MOEX index concluded January around the 3200–3250 mark, demonstrating moderate month-over-month growth against the backdrop of favorable commodity price conditions and relative calm on the foreign policy front. No major corporate events are planned for February 1 on the Russian market: the annual financial reporting season for most issuers will begin later, closer to the end of February and March. Today, investors on the MOEX will primarily rely on external signals. The key external factor will be the OPEC+ meeting outcome and oil price dynamics: stability or growth in Brent quotes following the meeting would boost shares of oil and gas companies (Lukoil, Rosneft) and federal budget revenues, while any disappointment for the oil market will quickly reflect in market sentiment on the MOEX. The Russian FX market remains relatively calm: the ruble trades around 90 per dollar, supported by high energy prices and the absence of new sanctions shocks. The end of the month tax period has concluded, which has removed some short-term support; however, the overall balance of power in the FX market has shifted towards stabilization of exchange rates—exporters sell revenues against the backdrop of expensive oil, countering capital outflows. In a relatively neutral global environment today, Russian indices will likely follow global trends. Specific corporate stories (such as potential operational reports from individual companies or management announcements) may cause local fluctuations but are unlikely to determine broad index dynamics. The primary task for domestic investors will be to assess external factors (OPEC+, geopolitics, sentiments in the U.S. and China) and be prepared for their impact on trading at the start of the week.

Day’s Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

OPEC+ Decisions and Oil. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will be one of the main indicators at the week’s start. The baseline scenario of maintaining current production levels will likely be interpreted calmly by the market: oil prices are expected to remain within the previous corridor (around $70+ per barrel), while shares of oil and gas companies will continue to trade without significant deviations. However, it is vital for investors to monitor the rhetoric and comments following the meeting. If leading exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc.) unanimously confirm their commitment to limited production, this will strengthen confidence in the stability of commodity markets. Conversely, any hints toward future changes—such as a potential increase in quotas in the second quarter or calling for an emergency OPEC+ meeting in response to market changes—could heighten volatility. Attention should particularly be paid to the reactions of currencies from commodity-exporting countries: an increase in oil prices would support the ruble, the Canadian dollar, and the Norwegian krone, while an unexpected “dovish” signal (e.g., discussion about increasing supply) may lead to their weakening.
Geopolitics and Risk Appetite. The trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi are a factor capable of significantly influencing global risk appetite. Investors should stay attuned to news from the UAE: even on a non-business day, news could emerge that would set market movements ahead of Monday's opening. A positive outcome (e.g., announcement of ceasefire agreements or plans for the next round with a specific agenda) would reduce uncertainty and likely support riskier assets—European and emerging equity markets could gain momentum, while prices for safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds) may decrease. Conversely, if negotiations end without results or new tensions arise, investors' risk appetite may diminish: expect an increased demand for “safe havens”—the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen—and potential corrections in European stock markets. Sectors tied to military spending and commodity supplies (defense, oil & gas, grain markets) will be particularly sensitive: negative outcomes from negotiations are likely to support their quotes (assuming conflict continuation), while positive outcomes may cause price declines (due to reduced risk premiums).
Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment. The ongoing earnings season will shape investor sentiment over the coming week. Already on Monday, several well-known issuers will release results before and after the close—market reactions to these will indicate the overall sentiment. Investors should focus not only on profit and revenue figures but also on management’s statements about expectations for 2026. For instance, a better-than-expected report from Disney or an optimistic forecast from Palantir regarding their technology demand could improve the climate in their respective sectors (media, technology) and push broad indices (such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq) higher. Conversely, if companies signal a slowdown in growth, margin compression due to expenses, or demand uncertainty, this could serve as a trigger for profit-taking after recent rallies. Considering that major reports from tech giants (like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) and several European banks and industrial flagships are scheduled for midweek, Monday's results will only provide an initial signal. Investors must catch these signals and recalibrate their exposure to sectors demonstrating either unexpected strength or weakness.
Macroeconomic Data for the Start of the Month. The first week of February is rich in important macroeconomic data: in addition to today’s PMIs and ISM, Tuesday will see inflation data from several European countries and the Eurozone overall, and Friday will bring the crucial U.S. labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls for January). These indicators will clarify the trajectory of the global economy: whether inflation continues to slow toward central bank targets while maintaining growth. Investors should particularly note if the fresh data confirms the “soft landing” scenario (moderate cooling without recession). If so, low inflation combined with acceptable growth and employment rates would offer a favorable climate for stocks, reducing the likelihood of further tightening monetary policy and boosting hopes for gradually lower rates closer to year’s end. However, should the data come as an unpleasant surprise (e.g., a renewed acceleration in price growth or a sharp drop in employment), markets may react swiftly: volatility could increase, and investors may begin asset regrouping, seeking safe-haven bonds while reducing allocations to riskier positions. The U.S. jobs report will hold particular significance: strong Payrolls amid weak industrial performance could trigger mixed reactions (Fed maintaining rates longer, while consumer demand remains resilient), while weak employment figures would enhance expectations of policy easing but raise concerns about GDP prospects.
Strategy for CIS Investors. This tranquil Sunday provides an opportune moment to evaluate portfolios ahead of a series of upcoming events. Investors from CIS countries should evenly distribute key assets and check the balance between risk and defensive instruments. The beginning of the new month is a time when many global funds redistribute capital, potentially leading to additional inflows or outflows in local markets (including the MOEX). Given the heightened uncertainty (geopolitics, macro statistics, corporate reports), it is advisable to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels for the most volatile positions. A well-thought-out strategy for unexpected news—whether it be breakthroughs during Ukraine negotiations, new sanctions implementation, unexpected inflation spikes, or other unforeseen events—will help preserve capital and seize emerging opportunities. As the markets prepare for Monday's opening, investors equipped with plans and a grasp of the global picture will navigate the flow of information with greater confidence, making informed decisions.