Economic Events and Corporate Reports – Monday, January 5, 2026 PMI, U.S. ISM, Turkey Inflation

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on January 5, 2026. Japan’s PMI, China’s Caixin PMI, Turkey’s CPI Inflation, and the ISM Manufacturing Index in the U.S., as well as the Absence of Major Corporate Reports in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday marks the beginning of the new year on global markets with a series of important macroeconomic publications. In Asia, the Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) for Japan and China will set the tone for the region's industry and services. In Europe, focus will be on inflation levels in Turkey and investor sentiment in the Eurozone, while in the U.S., the key benchmark for the day will be the ISM manufacturing index for December. The corporate agenda on January 5 is relatively calm: the earnings season for Q4 2025 has yet to begin, so no major publications from companies within the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, or MOEX are expected. Investors will need to connect the obtained economic signals – from Asian demand and commodity prices to expectations regarding Fed rate movements – to assess the overall market sentiment at the outset of 2026.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 03:30 — Japan: PMI index in manufacturing (December, final).
2. 04:45 — China: Caixin PMI in services and composite (December).
3. 10:00 — Turkey: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December (year-on-year inflation).
4. 11:30 — Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence index (January).
5. 17:45 — U.S.: Final PMI index in manufacturing from S&P Global (December).
6. 18:00 — U.S.: ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (December).

Asia: PMI in Japan and China

Business activity in Asia will start the year with the December PMI assessment. The final Japan Manufacturing PMI, according to preliminary data, remained below the 50 points threshold (November: ~48.7; December flash: ~49.7), indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, although at a more moderate pace than the previous month. This reflects ongoing weakness in external demand for Japanese exports, despite signs of stabilizing domestic demand.

• Japan's Manufacturing PMI – values below 50 signal a contraction in output. A PMI closer to 50 indicates a weakening of the downturn and could provide support for industrial stocks in Japan and related markets.
• China's Caixin Services PMI – expected to be slightly above 50 (previous value around 52), indicating continued growth in China's service sector. A slowdown in the indicator compared to the previous month (52.6 in November) may reflect consumer caution, while stable values will sustain optimism regarding demand in China. The composite PMI for China will combine trends in manufacturing and services, providing a broad picture of the economy.

The PMI data from Asia will signal to investors how the region's largest economies are closing the year: improving indicators could support commodity markets and currencies of developing countries, while negative surprises could raise concerns about weakening global demand.

Turkey: CPI Inflation Dynamics

The year-on-year inflation in Turkey for December will be one of the key indicators of the day for EM markets. Consumer price growth is expected to slow to approximately 30-32% YoY (from ~31% in November), marking the lowest level in several years. This slowdown is attributed to the tightening of monetary policy by Turkey's Central Bank leadership in the second half of 2025.

• CPI Slowdown – continued inflation reduction will confirm the effectiveness of the recent sharp increases in interest rates (the CBRT rate was raised to double digits). Cooling price pressures will enhance expectations that in 2026, the regulator may shift towards a softer policy, beneficial for Turkey’s bonds and equities.
• Inflation Structure – investors will examine which components are contributing to disinflation. A deceleration in food and energy prices will ease socio-economic tensions, while a decrease in core inflation (excluding volatile components) will indicate a sustainable improvement in the situation.
• Market Reaction – particular attention will be on the Turkish lira and the banking sector. Moderate CPI data may strengthen the lira and support the shares of Turkish banks and companies (on expectations of rate cuts), while an unexpected spike in inflation could trigger sell-offs in Turkish assets due to concerns over further tightening.

Europe: Sentix and Investor Sentiment

In Europe, there are few significant macro releases on Monday, but the Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone for January will be released. This leading indicator reflects financial participants' sentiment regarding the Eurozone economy. In the previous month, the Sentix value was −6.2 (against a backdrop of falling energy prices and hopes for a soft economic landing).

• Sentix Expectations – forecasts suggest a slight improvement in sentiment, with the index potentially rising to the range of −5…−4. Although the indicator remains in negative territory (indicating a predominance of pessimists), its increase signals a partial recovery of investors' confidence in the stability of the Eurozone economy.
• Impact on EU Markets – a moderately positive Sentix may support European equity indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and national indices) at the beginning of the year, especially in cycle-sensitive sectors (banks, industrials). Conversely, a weak index will strengthen defensive sentiments, increasing interest in German bonds and resilient "defensive" stocks.

Overall, the Sentix index will set the tone ahead of the more significant data releases in Europe later in the week (including preliminary inflation estimates in key countries). Investors from the CIS countries who are focused on the European market will consider Sentix as a barometer of the overall market atmosphere in the EU.

U.S.: ISM Index and the Manufacturing Sector

In the U.S., the ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index for December will be published – one of the first important indicators of the state of the U.S. economy in the new year. The manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management is expected to remain in the range of 47–49 points (November: 48.2), likely continuing to indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector (values below 50 signify a decrease). However, markets will be on the lookout for signs of changing dynamics in the report – a potential approach toward a turning point or a deepening downturn.

• New Orders and Production – key components of the ISM index. In the prior month, the new orders index was significantly below 50, reflecting weak demand for goods. If new orders see a rise towards 50 in December, it will be the first sign of industrial revival. Conversely, a decline would indicate sustained weak demand, especially from exports.
• Prices and Inventories – the prices paid sub-index will illustrate producers' cost trends. A slowdown in the price growth of raw materials and components would indicate easing inflationary pressures in manufacturing, which is positive for company margins. Data on stock levels and backlog will provide insights into whether companies are cutting production in anticipation of demand recovery.
• U.S. Market Reaction – for investors, the ISM index will act as an indicator of sentiment in the industrial sector, potentially influencing Wall Street index trends. A stronger than expected PMI (closer to 50) could support cyclical company shares (industrials, materials) while boosting U.S. Treasury yields (amid lower expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts). Conversely, disappointing numbers could heighten discussions of potential stimulus or rate cuts – this could weaken the U.S. dollar and drive up gold prices amid expectations of a softer policy.

It is worth noting that alongside the ISM, the final value of the S&P Global PMI for the U.S. in December (manufacturing) will also be released, but it carries less weight as preliminary figures are already known. Investors will primarily focus on the ISM report and the subsequent market reaction – from the S&P 500 to US Treasury yields.

Earnings: Before Market Open (BMO, U.S. and Asia)

• No Major Quarterly Reports: No companies within the major indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX) are slated to release financial reports on January 5. The earnings season for Q4 2025 has not yet commenced, thereby temporarily shifting investors' focus to macroeconomics.
• U.S. Automakers – sales data for December and the entire 2025 year from leading auto manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, etc.) are expected. These figures are not traditional profit reporting but will shed light on the demand within the U.S. automotive market at year's end, especially for electric vehicles. Strong holiday sales could buoy stocks in the auto sector.
• Chinese EV Manufacturers – major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto) traditionally reveal their December delivery figures in early January. High growth rates in EV sales in China at year's end will underscore sustained demand for EVs and could positively reflect on the stock prices of these companies (as well as related markets, such as battery manufacturers).
• Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) – the Taiwanese tech giant and key electronics manufacturer (iPhone assembler) is set to release monthly revenue data. The report for December is expected on January 5: investors will be looking at how robust the year-on-year revenue growth was amid the holiday season. Hon Hai's figures serve as a barometer for global demand for electronics and gadgets: growth in December sales will indicate a successful season for electronics producers, while weak data could temporarily dampen appetite for sector stocks.

Earnings: After Market Close (AMC, U.S.)

• After the closure of U.S. exchanges on January 5, no major public companies in the U.S. are scheduled to release financial reports. Investors are using this pause before the earnings season begins to analyze macroeconomic signals and prepare for the influx of corporate news that will intensify in the second week of January.

Day Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

• 1) PMI in Asia: The business activity figures for Japan and China will serve as an early indicator of global industrial health. Improvement in PMI will support commodities and currencies of emerging markets, while weak data will amplify concerns regarding demand for raw materials and exports from Asian countries.
• 2) Inflation in Turkey: Continued disinflation (declining CPI) will strengthen confidence in the economic policies of Turkish authorities and may lead to rising prices for Turkish bonds and stocks. However, an unexpected inflation spike could induce volatility – weakening the lira and reshaping investors' risks in the Turkish market.
• 3) ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.): This report can set the direction for U.S. and global markets. If ISM exceeds expectations, investors are likely to revise forecasts regarding interest rates (toward a more "hawkish" Fed), reflected in rising bond yields and support for cyclical stocks. Conversely, disappointing PMI data will heighten expectations of policy easing – possibly leading to a correction in the dollar and increasing interest in defensive assets (gold, bonds).

In conclusion, the first trading Monday of 2026 offers investors a comprehensive overview of economic trends – from Asia to America. The outcomes of these events will determine the level of risk appetite in the markets: balanced, moderately positive data could give the markets momentum for growth at the start of the year, while negative surprises will encourage participants to adopt a more cautious stance while awaiting further signals from upcoming reports and statistics.