Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, December 14, 2025: China's Industrial Production Data, U.S. Federal Reserve and ECB Meetings, and Corporate Decisions of Investment Holding SFI. A Comprehensive Overview for Investors from the CIS.
On Sunday, global financial markets are in a state of relative calm, as major exchanges are closed. Investors are digesting the recent decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and preparing for the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). The start of the new week will be marked by the release of important macroeconomic statistics from China, which could set the tone for trading in Asian and commodity markets. In Russia, market participants are focused on a corporate event—the shareholders' meeting of SFI, where significant issues related to dividends and the sale of a major asset will be discussed. Overall, the sentiment among investors in the CIS and around the world remains cautious: key global indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX index) close the week without sharp fluctuations, concentrating on future signals for their strategies.
U.S. Federal Reserve: Impact of Rate Cut and Market Reaction
During its meeting on December 9-10, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered the key rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.5-3.75% per annum. This step was anticipated by the market and marked the fourth rate cut in 2025 amid slowing inflation in the U.S. In its accompanying statement, the Fed signaled a more cautious approach moving forward: further monetary policy easing will depend on incoming economic data. The U.S. stock market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices) reacted with moderate gains to the regulator's determination to support the economy; however, the growth was restrained—investors are assessing whether the easing cycle is approaching a pause. U.S. Treasury yields stabilized after the decision, and the dollar weakened slightly against major currencies, reflecting expectations of lower interest rates. On Sunday, market participants are re-evaluating the Fed's outcomes: already next week, speeches from Fed officials and the publication of the minutes may provide additional clues regarding the policy direction for 2026.
ECB and European Policy: Expectations Ahead of the December 18 Decision
European investors are focusing on the upcoming meeting of the ECB, scheduled for Thursday, December 18. After a series of interest rate hikes throughout the year, the ECB is likely to maintain the refinancing rate at the current level (4.00%) amid signs of slowing inflation in the eurozone (approximately 2.2% year-on-year) and fragile economic growth. The ECB's leadership, headed by Christine Lagarde, is balancing the need to finally curb inflation with the necessity to support an economy showing signs of cooling. Investors in Europe (Euro Stoxx 50 index) will be looking for hints in the regulator's rhetoric regarding plans for 2026: possible pauses or the conclusion of the tightening cycle, or readiness to resume rate hikes if inflationary pressures intensify. The eurozone bond market is already pricing in the stabilization of rates—government bond yields have decreased in anticipation of a dovish tone from the ECB. The ECB's decision and comments at the end of the week could impact the euro's exchange rate and the dynamics of European stocks, leading to potentially subdued trading activity until Thursday.
China's Economy: November Data Will Indicate Trends
On Monday morning, December 15, China will publish a package of key macroeconomic indicators for November, attracting investors' attention ahead of the Asian trading session. Modest growth in industrial production is expected at around +5% year-on-year, which is comparable to previous months and indicates sustained but not accelerating activity in the manufacturing sector. Retail sales figures are forecasted to be around +3% year-on-year—consumer demand in China remains positive, albeit without a sharp surge, reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic consumption. Statistics on fixed asset investment and the real estate market will also be closely analyzed for signs of stabilization in troubled sectors. Any deviation of actual data from expectations could result in a noticeable response in Asian markets: stronger-than-expected figures will support investor optimism, pushing regional indices and commodity prices upward, while weaker results may heighten concerns about the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD) and prices for industrial metals will be particularly sensitive to Chinese statistics.
Japan: Business Climate and the Bank of Japan's Course
On Sunday at 23:50 GMT (01:50 Moscow time on Monday), the results of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey for Q4 2025 will be released. A slight improvement in business sentiment among large manufacturers and stable positive assessments in the service sector is expected. Preliminary economist forecasts indicate that the index of business optimism among large industrial companies may increase by a few points compared to the previous quarter, reflecting Japanese companies' adaptation to the weakening yen and the recovery of external demand. At the same time, confidence among large non-manufacturing (service) companies remains strong due to resilient domestic consumption. This data is released in the lead-up to the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 18-19. According to a Reuters poll, most experts expect the Bank of Japan to raise the interest rate from the current 0.5% to 0.75%—this would be the second tightening of policy in the year, considering inflation in Japan has exceeded the targeted 2%. The Tankan will serve as an important indicator for the Bank of Japan: confirmation of strengthening business confidence could bolster the regulator's determination to gradually depart from the era of zero interest rates. For the Nikkei 225 index and the yen's exchange rate, the prospect of a higher rate carries a dual effect: the financial sector will benefit from an increase in margins, while exporters may face challenges from yen appreciation if the Bank of Japan's decision exceeds expectations.
Corporate News and Reports
- SFI (Russia) – investment holding (PJSC “SFI”) with shares traded on MOEX is conducting an extraordinary remote shareholders' meeting on December 14. The agenda includes significant corporate decisions: shareholders will consider the board's proposal to pay interim dividends for the first nine months of 2025 amounting to 902 rubles per share, totaling approximately 43.9 billion rubles. There will also be a vote on the approval of the sale of 87.5% of the shares of the leasing company "Europlan" (a key asset of SFI) to Alfa-Bank—this transaction requires shareholder approval as it involves over half of the holding's assets. Additionally, SFI plans to approve the buyback of the remaining 3.2% of treasury shares. These decisions signal the company's intention to enhance returns for shareholders and focus on core business areas. Russian investors will closely monitor the results of the meeting: generous dividends make SFI an attractive dividend story on the Russian market, and the sale of "Europlan" could substantially alter the holding's business structure.
- Nike (NKE, USA) – one of the world's largest manufacturers of sports apparel and footwear, will present its financial results for Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year on Thursday, December 18 (after market close). Investors in the U.S. and Europe are eagerly awaiting this report to assess consumer demand in the retail sector at year-end. Analysts predict a moderate decline in Nike's profits compared to the previous year due to increased costs and currency fluctuations; however, any positive surprises (such as sales growth in North America or China) could support the company's stock and the consumer goods sector within the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices.
- FedEx (FDX, USA) – a global leader in logistics and express delivery, will report on its financial Q2 of 2026 at the end of the week (December 18, after trading hours). FedEx's results serve as a barometer for business activity and global trade: an increase in delivery volumes typically reflects heightened economic activity. The market expects FedEx to report an increase in revenue due to the pre-holiday season and the effectiveness of cost-cutting measures. Strong results from FedEx could have a positive impact on sentiment in the industrial and transportation sectors, while disappointing figures may heighten concerns regarding a slowdown in the global economy.
- Oracle (ORCL, USA) – a major technology corporation, which already released its quarterly report (fiscal Q2 2026) last week, deserves mention due to noticeable market reaction. The company showed double-digit year-on-year profit growth; however, a weaker revenue forecast in the cloud segment disappointed investors. Oracle's shares have dropped around 12% in recent days, putting pressure on the Nasdaq's technology sector. This example highlights selectivity in sentiment: even strong financial results can lead to declines in stock prices if forecasts do not meet high expectations. Investors will continue to analyze Oracle's management comments, especially regarding demand for cloud services and developments in artificial intelligence, to adjust their assessments of sector prospects.
Geopolitical Factors
- Presidential Elections in Chile: On Sunday, December 14, Chile is holding the second round of presidential elections. Latin America attracts the attention of global investors as the outcome of this campaign could impact the economic course of one of the largest regional players. Chile is a leading global supplier of copper and lithium, so candidates' preferences regarding mining and foreign investments are particularly significant. The victory of a market-oriented candidate could stimulate investment inflows and ensure regulatory stability, positively affecting the stocks of Chilean mining companies and copper prices. Conversely, more left-leaning rhetoric from the winner may raise concerns about increased state influence in strategic sectors, which could theoretically limit metal supplies on the global market. In the short term, the election results will be reflected in the dynamics of the peso and the prices of Chilean stocks on Monday; indirectly, the reaction may also be felt in other emerging markets, including CIS markets, through changes in commodity prices and investor risk appetite.
- International Trade and Sanctions: No significant events are scheduled for December 14; however, investors continue to monitor the backdrop of trade negotiations and sanctions policy. The focus is on the potential continuation of dialogue between the U.S. and China on trade issues following a series of mutual steps toward de-escalation, as well as news from Europe regarding sanctions against certain countries and companies. Any sudden statements from officials over the weekend could prompt market movement on Monday morning. For now, geopolitical uncertainty remains a limiting factor: market participants are pricing in a risk premium for sensitive assets. For instance, CIS markets continue to account for sanction risks and news surrounding geopolitical conflicts, although there have been no specific escalations in recent days.
Commodity Markets
- Oil: Brent crude oil prices closed last week around $78 per barrel, showing a slight decline amid profit-taking by investors. In the absence of new drivers, oil traders on Sunday are focused on upcoming macroeconomic statistics from China and signals from central banks. Chinese data on industrial production and retail sales could significantly influence the oil market: stronger economic growth in China will be interpreted as a sign of increased demand for energy resources, potentially pushing oil prices upward. Additionally, the tone from the Fed and ECB will be a factor: if regulators confirm the easing of financial conditions and rate cuts, the U.S. dollar may weaken, supporting commodity prices. The market is also awaiting OPEC's monthly report on demand and supply—this may clarify the cartel's plans following the recent decision to cut production. Overall, the price range for oil remains relatively narrow as market participants await clearer guidelines, and volatility has somewhat decreased following the rally in November.
- Precious Metals: Gold continues to trade near recent highs of around $2050 per troy ounce, benefiting from expectations of a more dovish monetary policy. The Fed's decision to cut rates and signals of a pause in tightening from other central banks support gold's attractiveness as a safe haven against inflation and currency risks. Investors continue to see precious metals as a "safe harbor": inflows into gold ETFs increased last week. However, the short-term dynamics of gold may be volatile—if central bank comments are less dovish or the dollar strengthens unexpectedly, price corrections for metals could occur. Silver and platinum are also showing resilience, following gold; their industrial demand component will depend on data from China. For CIS markets, gold prices are particularly relevant in the context of export revenues and the state of foreign exchange reserves, hence, stable high gold prices support regional economies.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Focus On
- Monetary Policy in Focus: The consequences of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates have already been reflected in the market—it's crucial for investors to assess the regulator's comments and understand whether the easing of policy will continue. In the coming days, the tone of the Fed and expectations ahead of the ECB meeting (December 18) will set the direction for currency rates (especially the EUR/USD pair) and the dynamics of global bonds.
- Chinese Macroeconomic Data as a Driver: Early Monday morning, data from China (industrial production and retail sales) may determine the trading mood in Asia and the commodity market. Stronger statistics will support oil and industrial metals prices, while weak figures could amplify concerns about the pace of global economic recovery.
- Corporate Events and Reports: In the CIS local market, a key event is the shareholders' meeting of SFI, which may result in record dividends and a significant transaction. This will draw investors' attention to the Russian stock market and the financial sector. On the international stage, important reports from Nike and FedEx are due (December 18), which will signal consumer spending and the state of global trade ahead of the holidays. The technology sector remains sensitive to company forecasts, as demonstrated by the reaction to Oracle's report—investors should approach such stories selectively.
- Risks and Opportunities During the Weekend: Despite the holiday, investors remain vigilant. Geopolitical surprises (such as the outcome of the elections in Chile) or sudden statements could disrupt market tranquility before the week opens. It's advisable to pay attention to news on Sunday evening to respond promptly to potential changes in sentiment in Asia on Monday morning. As the end of the year approaches and market liquidity decreases, maintaining caution is crucial: even minor news can lead to disproportionately strong price fluctuations.
