Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy Sector of Russia as of December 15, 2025: Sanctions, Exports, Oil and Gas Markets, Internal Fuel Prices, RES, and Global Commodity Trends. Detailed Analytical Review for Investors and Industry Participants in the Fuel and Energy Complex.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex as of December 15, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. The United States has imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian oil industry, leading to a restructuring of global energy resource trading and highlighting the ongoing geopolitical tension. However, oil prices in the global market remain relatively stable and close to multi-month lows: oversupply and cautious demand keep prices at moderate levels. The North Sea Brent blend trades at approximately $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI hovers between $57–59, about 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a continued correction after the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. The European gas market also demonstrates a sustainable equilibrium: underground gas storage in the EU is over 70% full, providing a solid reserve for winter, while exchange gas prices remain relatively low (around $9 per million BTU, significantly lower than last year).
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum, with many countries reporting record power generation from renewable sources, although for the reliability of energy systems, countries still rely on traditional resources. As a result, amid green transformation and increasing sanction confrontation, governments and companies are forced to balance between decarbonization strategies and ensuring energy security. In Russia, following a recent spike in fuel prices, authorities are implementing a series of measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market – from export restrictions to record subsidies for oil producers. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, power engineering, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain relatively low under the influence of fundamental factors. After a noticeable increase in production during 2024–2025 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (the OPEC+ alliance), as well as rising supplies from the U.S. and other independent producers, expectations of oversupply have increased in the market. At the same time, global oil demand is growing only moderately: the slowdown in the Chinese economy in the first half of the year and improved energy efficiency restrain consumption, although by the end of 2025, the global macroeconomic environment began to improve. Together, these factors prevent prices from rising: Brent holds around $60 per barrel, WTI remains below $60. For comparison, a year ago, oil was trading significantly higher, so current quotes reflect a gradual return of the market to normalcy after a turbulent period of volatility. OPEC+, amid the threat of oversaturation in the market, has paused production increases for the first time in a long while, deciding to keep quotas unchanged at least for the first quarter of 2026. According to the latest forecasts, global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 3–4 million barrels per day next year, although recent sanctions have somewhat reduced the expected glut. The International Energy Agency noted that sanctions against certain supplier countries (primarily Russia and Venezuela) are reducing the available volumes in the market, while economic improvements add confidence in demand. In turn, the December report from OPEC confirms the rise in oil consumption in 2026 and anticipates a more balanced market: in the cartel's estimates, global demand and supply next year will be closely aligned. Thus, the oil market enters 2026 with cautious optimism: despite the pressure from excess stocks, OPEC+ measures and economic recovery are likely to prevent further price declines.
Gas Market: Comfortable Reserves in Europe and Moderate Fuel Prices
In the gas market, Europe remains the focus, confidently navigating the onset of the winter season thanks to accumulated reserves. European countries have proactively filled their underground storage to high levels: by mid-December, gas reserves exceed 75% of storage capacity, significantly above the averages of previous years. These healthy reserves provide a reliable buffer in case of cold weather spikes and help keep prices in check. Currently, spot prices at the TTF hub are fluctuating around €25–28 per MWh (about $8–9 per MMBtu), remaining at moderate levels and about a third lower than a year ago. Even periods of cold weather do not lead to sharp price spikes, as the market is balanced due to diversified liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and reduced consumption. This situation is favorable for European industries and energy sectors on the brink of winter: the burden on household and corporate budgets is significantly lighter compared to the crisis of 2022.
Potential risks of increased competition for energy resources from Asia loom ahead, should economic growth in the Asia-Pacific countries accelerate and they begin to actively purchase additional LNG batches. However, the current European gas balance appears stable. Moreover, the European Union is taking strategic steps towards complete independence from Russian energy resources. Politically, an agreement has been reached to phase out imports of Russian gas: a complete ban on LNG shipments from Russia is planned for the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027. This continues the EU's course towards strengthening energy security initiated after the events of 2022. Already, imports of Russian gas have decreased to about 13% of the total supply volume in the EU, while the share of Russian oil in European imports has dropped below 3%. Thus, Europe is securing gas from alternative sources and confidently reducing its dependence on Russia, which will ultimately reduce the vulnerability of its market and help stabilize prices.
International Politics: New US Sanctions Transform the Global Oil Market
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on the fuel and energy market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the United States sharply intensified sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. In October, the American administration imposed direct sanctions against the two largest oil companies in Russia – Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for approximately two-thirds of Russian oil exports. These measures, which took effect at the end of November, target the very core of Russia's oil sector and essentially demonstrate that even leading companies in the country are no longer "too big" for sanctions. As a result, Moscow's export capabilities are facing new obstacles: industry analysts estimate that oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget fell by about one-third in November compared to last year, reaching their lowest level since the onset of the sanction conflict in 2022. The blow to key exporters has led to disruptions in the sale of Russian oil on the global market: traders report an increase in volumes of Russian oil seeking buyers and stored on tankers at sea, as traditional trading chains have been disrupted.
Many states that previously increased their purchases of Russian energy resources have begun to reevaluate their policies under the influence of sanctions and market conditions. Turkey, India, Brazil, and several other major importers have reduced their acquisition of Russian oil by the end of the year, seeking to avoid secondary sanctions and payment issues. Nevertheless, China remains a key buyer: Beijing, which has not joined Western restrictions, continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and gas, albeit at substantial discounts. Russian exporters are forced to offer discounts to the world price to retain their foothold in the Asian market – according to trading platforms, the Urals grade is trading at a discount of about $15–20 compared to Brent. Additional pressure on Moscow is also coming from the European Union, which has nearly ceased imports of Russian oil and oil products and is now legislating a complete rejection of Russian gas in the coming years. As a result, the global oil market is undergoing structural changes: Russian companies are hastily selling off foreign assets (refineries, sales networks in Europe and other regions), making room for competitors, while traditional raw material trade flows are being redirected. Although dialogue between Moscow and Washington regarding energy has effectively frozen, the ongoing escalation of sanctions remains a significant uncertainty factor for the market. Investors are keeping a close eye on the situation: any further tightening of restrictions or retaliatory moves from Russia could reflect on global prices, while any hints of easing tensions would be seen as a positive signal. For now, the status quo is that the sanctions standoff continues, and market participants are adapting to the new reality of a bifurcated oil and gas space.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Faced with the pressure of Western sanctions, New Delhi clearly prioritizes energy security and does not intend to sharply reduce purchases of Russian energy resources. Russian oil and gas remain critical elements of the country’s import structure, and a sudden exit is deemed unacceptable due to the needs of the economy. Instead, India has managed to secure favorable terms: Russian suppliers offer significant discounts on Urals oil (estimated at around $5 per barrel from Brent prices), allowing Indian refineries to obtain feedstock at reduced rates. As a result, India continues to actively purchase Russian oil on preferential terms and is even increasing its imports of oil products from Russia to meet the growing domestic fuel demand. Simultaneously, the government is stepping up efforts to reduce reliance on imports over the long term. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a large-scale program for exploring deep-sea oil and gas fields on his Independence Day in August. Under this initiative, the state-owned corporation ONGC has begun ultra-deep drilling (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, with initial results deemed promising. This "deep-sea mission" aims to spur the discovery of new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to the goal of increasing energy self-sufficiency in the future.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also boosting energy imports while investing in increasing its domestic production. Chinese companies remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas: Beijing has not supported sanctions against Moscow and has taken advantage of the situation to import Russian raw materials at favorable prices. According to customs statistics from the PRC, in 2024, the country imported about 212.8 million tons of oil and 246.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas – these volumes increased by 1.8% and 6.2% respectively from the previous year. In 2025, imports continue at high levels, although growth rates have somewhat slowed due to the high base effect and overall rising oil prices. Simultaneously, China is stimulating its internal oil and gas production: from January to September 2025, national companies extracted approximately 180 million tons of oil and 210 billion cubic meters of gas, exceeding last year's levels by a few percent. Increased domestic production partially offsets rising demand but does not eliminate China’s need for external supplies. The authorities in the PRC continue to invest in developing fields and technologies to increase oil recovery, striving to slow import growth. Nonetheless, given the scale of the economy, China's dependence on energy resource imports remains significant: experts estimate that in the coming years, the country will import at least 70% of its consumed oil and about 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, blending import strategies with the development of their resource bases.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. In 2025, many nations reported new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), primarily solar and wind. The European Union reported that in 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed electricity generation from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025, as the commissioning of new capacities continues to increase the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while coal's share in the energy balance is gradually declining following a temporary increase during the 2022–2023 crisis. In the United States, renewable energy has also reached historical highs – at the beginning of 2025, over 30% of total generation was accounted for by RES, and the total output of wind and solar energy surpassed generation from coal-fired plants for the first time. China, being the global leader in RES capacities, annually adds dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines, constantly breaking its own records for “green” generation. Overall, companies and investors around the world are pouring unprecedented funds into the development of clean energy: according to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds allocated to RES projects, as well as the modernization of grid infrastructure and energy storage systems. The international climate agenda also provides additional impetus – at the recent UN Climate Summit (COP30), global leaders reaffirmed their commitment to emission reduction targets, implying an accelerated expansion of low-carbon energy in the coming years.
At the same time, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to ensure stability and cover peak loads. The rapid growth of the share of solar and wind power plants creates new challenges for grid balancing during hours when renewable generation is temporarily unavailable – at night, during calm weather, or under extreme loads. To guarantee uninterrupted power supply, operators sometimes have to re-engage gas and even coal-fired power plants. For instance, in some regions of Europe last winter, coal-fired power generation was briefly increased during periods of calm and cold weather, despite the environmental costs associated with such actions. Aware of these risks, governments in many countries are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly redistributing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES increases. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources could take the lead globally in electricity generation volumes, ultimately surpassing coal. However, in the coming few years, the need to maintain traditional power plants as reserves and a safeguard against disruptions remains vital. Thus, the global energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources to keep energy systems resilient and flexible.
Coal: Stable Market Amid Continued High Demand
Despite the rapid development of renewable sources, the global coal market retains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. The demand for coal products remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support the intensive use of this fuel. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – continues to burn coal at near-record rates in 2025. Annual production in Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, covering a lion's share of the country's internal needs. However, this barely suffices to meet peak demand during certain periods: for example, in the hot summer months when air conditioning usage surges, China's energy system experiences increased load, and coal generation remains indispensable to prevent outages. India, possessing large coal reserves, is also increasing its consumption: over 70% of electricity in the country is still produced at coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal usage is rising alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing projects to construct new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing energy consumption of their populations and industries.
Global coal production and trade have adapted to maintain high demand. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – have increased production and export shipments of thermal coal in recent years, which has kept prices at moderate levels. After price spikes in 2022, thermal coal quotes have returned to more familiar values and have fluctuated within a narrow range in recent months. The balance between demand and supply is currently stable: consumers are guaranteed the necessary fuel, while producers have a stable market with profitable prices. Although several countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal usage in the future for climate goals, in the short term, coal remains an irreplaceable resource for supplying electricity to billions of people. Most experts believe that over the next 5–10 years, coal generation – particularly in Asia – will continue to play a significant role, even amidst global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is experiencing a period of relative stability: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the fundamental pillars of the world's energy system.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, emergency measures are being implemented in the second half of 2025 to normalize the pricing situation and prevent fuel shortages. In August, wholesale exchange prices for automotive gasoline in Russia reached new historical highs, exceeding the records of the previous year. This occurred against a backdrop of several factors: high summer demand (active car tourism, harvesting in the agricultural sector), limited fuel reserves, and unplanned outages at several refineries. Accidents and drone attacks at the end of summer damaged several major refineries, reducing gasoline production and leading to localized supply disruptions in several regions. Faced with an impending fuel crisis, the government had to intensify market regulation. On August 14, an emergency meeting of the headquarters monitoring the situation in the fuel and energy complex took place under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, where a comprehensive plan was announced to reduce price surges and stabilize supply in the domestic market. The main steps include:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel from Russia, instituted at the end of summer, has been extended indefinitely. The government has directly mandated oil companies to redirect stockpiles to the domestic market. Authorities also discuss the possibility of introducing quotas or a complete embargo on diesel fuel exports to ensure priority supply to domestic consumers.
- Distribution Control and the Functioning of Refineries: Regulators have intensified oversight of fuel distribution within the country. Producers are directed to first meet the needs of the domestic market and avoid exchange resales, which previously spiked prices. One of the reasons for shortages was unplanned outages at major refineries, so special attention is being paid to expedite their restoration and prevent similar disruptions. The Ministry of Energy, along with the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, is developing long-term measures – for example, shifting to direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing stockbrokers – to make the fuel distribution system more transparent and resilient.
- Subsidies and Price Stabilization Mechanisms: The state has increased financial support for oil refineries to curb prices at gas stations. Budget payments for the reverse excise tax on fuel (the so-called "damper") continue without interruption, compensating companies for the difference between export and domestic revenue. In October, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree prohibiting the suspension of compensation payments to oil producers until May 2026, effectively lifting previously existing restrictions on the subsidy amounts. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first nine months of 2025, oil companies received approximately 715.5 billion rubles under the fuel price stabilization mechanism – an unprecedented volume of state aid aimed at stabilizing prices. These measures encourage companies to retain a larger volume of oil products in the domestic market despite higher prices abroad.
The cumulative measures are aimed at gradually stabilizing fuel prices in Russia and preventing shortages at gas stations. The extension of export restrictions is expected to increase gasoline supply within the country by hundreds of thousands of tons monthly – previously, these volumes were exported. Additionally, large-scale subsidies maintain economic incentives for oil companies to saturate the domestic market. The government expresses its readiness to act proactively: should the situation require it, restrictions on fuel product exports will be extended, and additional resources from state reserves will be promptly directed to the regions. Thus far, the sharpness of the fuel crisis has somewhat diminished: despite record wholesale prices, retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations have risen much more moderately (by single percentages since the beginning of the year, close to overall inflation). Gas stations are supplied with fuel, and it is anticipated that the measures implemented will gradually cool exchanges prices. The situation continues to be monitored at the highest level – relevant authorities and the Russian government are prepared to introduce new mechanisms as needed to ensure stable fuel supply in the domestic market and keep prices within acceptable limits for end consumers.
