Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, February 27, 2026 — GDP of Switzerland, India, and Canada, US PPI, and Reports in Energy and Real Estate
Friday, February 27, 2026, is marked by "hard" macro data for global markets: the GDP releases from several economies (Switzerland, India, Canada) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) set the tone for expectations regarding interest rates and investor risk appetite. For audiences in the CIS, the internal agenda of Russia remains a critical factor: the annual government report in the State Duma has the potential to influence expectations regarding budgetary policy, infrastructure priorities, and the regulatory environment. On the corporate side, key reports in the energy, real estate, and lending sectors will help assess the state of demand, cost of capital, and margin stability at the end of the reporting season.
Markets and Context: How Growth, Inflation, and Rates are Interwoven
The combination of GDP and inflation data is crucial primarily as a signal for the trajectory of monetary policy. If growth in exporting countries and developed economies is sustained while inflationary pressures in the US remain noticeable, markets may factor in a prolonged period of high rates. This typically heightens sensitivity:
- to growth stocks and the technology sector (via discount rates),
- to the banking and financial sector (through yield curve dynamics),
- to commodities and currencies of exporting nations (via global demand and real yields).
Investor focus will be on the reactions of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indices to surprises in the data, as well as management comments during earnings reports.
Economic Calendar: Key Releases (Time — Moscow)
- Switzerland: GDP for Q4 2025 — 11:00.
- Russia: address by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to the State Duma with the annual government report — throughout the day (as per parliament scheduling).
- India: GDP for Q4 2025 — 13:30.
- Canada: GDP for Q4 2025 — 16:30.
- USA: Producer Price Index (PPI) for January — 16:30.
- USA: Chicago PMI for February — 17:45.
Europe: Switzerland and Demand "Temperature" Amidst Strong Franc
Switzerland’s GDP for Q4 2025 provides investors with a benchmark for the resilience of domestic demand and the export sector in a strong currency environment and changing external conditions. This is significant for European risk as part of the growth mosaic in the region: strong numbers support cyclical sectors, while weak outcomes boost demand for defensive assets and "quality" in equities. For Euro Stoxx 50, indirect effects arise from expectations in the industrial, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors, as well as through the currency channel (euro/franc).
Asia: India’s GDP as an Indicator for Commodities and the Global Cycle
Data on India’s GDP for Q4 2025 is increasingly perceived as a barometer of "new" Asian growth. Strong dynamics typically support expectations regarding fuel consumption and industrial metals, as well as demand for services and imports. This reflects in:
- commodity markets (oil, coal, metals),
- stocks of companies sensitive to the global cycle,
- sentiment in emerging markets.
Although Nikkei 225 is structurally more tied to exports and the yen, the overall backdrop of Asian demand influences expectations regarding supply chains and global trade volumes.
North America: Canada’s GDP, US PPI, and Chicago PMI — Triggers for Rates and the Dollar
The Canadian GDP for Q4 2025 is essential as a test of economic resilience under high rates and the sensitivity of households to mortgage costs. For the oil and gas markets, Canada remains a significant player, so growth data may also reflect expectations for energy demand.
The key release of the day for global assets is the US PPI. Alongside consumer inflation, it helps gauge how much pressure on producer costs may transition to end-consumer prices. For the S&P 500 and the broader "risk-on" regime, two scenarios are critical:
- PPI above expectations: increases in yields, strengthening of the dollar, pressure on high-multiple stocks and rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, parts of consumer demand).
- PPI below expectations: relief in terms of rates, support for growth stocks and the credit market, possible momentum for cyclical sectors while maintaining business activity resilience.
The Chicago PMI complements the picture as an indicator of the industrial cycle and supply chains. The combination of "strong PMI + tough PPI" usually intensifies discussions around prolonged high rates; while "weak PMI + soft PPI" pushes towards revising expectations for rate cuts.
Russia and the CIS Market: Government Report as a Factor for Budget and Regulatory Expectations
The address by the Prime Minister in the State Duma is an event that can shift short-term investor assessments of economic policy priorities. In the spotlight for MOEX and a wide array of investors in the CIS are:
- budgetary guidelines and possible changes in expenditure priorities (infrastructure, industry, social programs),
- signals regarding tax and regulatory policy for the corporate sector,
- emphasis on import substitution, technological chains, and investment support.
Even without immediate decisions, rhetoric can influence expectations regarding capital expenditures, state contracts, and sensitive sectors including banks, transportation, and energy.
Corporate Reports: Before Market Opening (US and International)
Below are the most notable companies scheduled to report on Friday. For investors, not only the figures matter, but also comments on demand, cost of capital, and forecasts for 2026.
US: Energy, Real Estate, Lending, and the Industrial Cycle
- Energy Fuels (UUUU) — focus on uranium/rare earth elements, sensitivity to long-term contracts and capital expenditures.
- Delek US Holdings (DK) and Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) — refining margin, logistics tariffs, capacity utilization, and debt load.
- Hawaiian Electric (HE) — tariff structure, network investments, regulatory risks, and cost of financing.
- Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) — quality of credit portfolio, delinquency rates, funding costs; a key indicator for the commercial real estate segment.
- Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO) — occupancy and rates in the hotel segment, RevPAR dynamics, sensitivity to consumer demand and corporate travel.
- TCP Capital (TCPC) — state of the private credit market, portfolio yield, and default risk.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) — coal/metallurgical commodities, pricing conditions, and export flows.
International Companies: Australia, New Zealand, Canada
- Virgin Australia Holdings — passenger traffic, cost structure (fuel), yield, and fleet plans.
- Summerset Group Holdings (New Zealand) — real estate and elderly care: prices, demand, and cost of capital.
- Savaria (Canada) — revenue and margin dynamics in niche industrial segments.
- Lumine Group (Canada) — profitability, organic growth, and M&A activity.
- IAMGOLD (international listing story) — costs, production, and sensitivity to gold prices.
Key Events of the Day: What Could Shift Markets Quickly
- 16:30 Moscow time: simultaneous release of Canada’s GDP and US PPI — a moment of maximum volatility for currencies, rates, and indices.
- 17:45 Moscow time: Chicago PMI — confirmation or refutation of the narrative on US industrial resilience.
- Russian Agenda: signals regarding budget and regulation influence individual stories on MOEX and business expectations in the CIS.
What Investors Should Focus On
The main task for Friday is to accurately interpret the link between "growth + inflation." For investors, the most practical checklist appears as follows:
- For the US: compare PPI and Chicago PMI against market expectations and assess yield reactions — this will set the tone for the S&P 500 and sector rotation.
- Globally: use GDP data from Switzerland, India, and Canada as a check on the breadth of the global cycle and demand for commodities.
- For Russia: track the government's report highlights — especially regarding investments, infrastructure, and regulatory changes that could alter sector evaluations.
- On Earnings: in energy and real estate, look not only at profits but also at debt levels, cost of funding, and management forecasts — often, these are more crucial by the end of the rate cycle than one-off quarterly figures.
The final assessment of the day will depend on whether the data confirms a scenario of soft cooling of inflation without a sharp decline in growth. If so — markets get a chance to close the week with moderate optimism; if not — the likelihood of defensive positioning and increased demand for quality and liquidity rises.
