Current News of the Fuel and Energy Sector as of November 2, 2025. Oil and Gas Prices, Renewable Energy Trends, Geopolitical Risks, and Forecasts for the Energy Market.
The current developments in the fuel and energy sector as of November 2, 2025, are taking place against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tension and notable positive signals in the markets. The sanctions standoff between Russia and the West remains stringent: the United States has implemented new restrictions against the subsidiaries of Rosneft and Lukoil with a deadline set for the end of November, and the European Union is expanding its embargo on Russian LNG. However, optimism in global markets is fueled by a trade "ceasefire" between the U.S. and China, which has improved forecasts for global energy demand. Combined with moderately high industrial activity, these factors provide additional support for raw material prices.
Commodity markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, after dropping to lows, are returning to a moderate range: Brent is trading around $64–66 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $60–62. The balance of supply and demand remains fragile, but oversupply is restraining growth. The gas market is entering the winter with record fuel stocks: European underground storage facilities are over 90% full, which has reduced spot prices to comfortable levels of around €30 per MWh. Overall, the global fuel and energy complex is evolving under the influence of divergent trends: on one hand, a persistent oversupply of hydrocarbons, and on the other, increasing investments in renewable sources and energy efficiency.
The global energy transition is gaining momentum: records in the construction of solar and wind power stations are being set in many countries, with the share of renewables in electricity generation continually increasing. At the same time, technologies from the traditional sector remain vital for energy supply reliability. In Russia, measures are being implemented to stabilize the domestic market following a recent fuel crisis: gasoline and diesel production has been restored to pre-crisis levels, wholesale prices are declining, and there are currently no issues in supplying fuel to gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key segments of the fuel and energy sector, including oil, gas, electricity, coal, refining, and the fuel market, as well as major geopolitical and market trends.
Oil Market: Surplus Balance and Ongoing Risks
Global oil prices remain under pressure from fundamental factors, despite temporary spikes. Following an autumn decline, Brent prices have stabilized around $64–66 per barrel (lower than the start of the year). The market continues to operate on a surplus scenario for supply by the end of 2025. Contributing to this are the following trends:
- Increased Production Amid Decreasing Demand: OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing quotas: in November, the alliance officially allowed additional production of around 137,000 barrels/day. The USA and some other producers (including Brazil and Kazakhstan) have reached record output levels. However, global demand growth is slowing: the IEA predicts an increase of approximately 0.7 million barrels/day in 2025 (compared to 2 million in 2023), leading to inventory accumulation.
- Trade Ceasefire: The U.S. and China agreement reduces geopolitical risks and stimulates expectations of demand growth. This provides short-term support for oil prices and may mitigate some negative factors of oversupply.
- Energy Conservation and Innovation: Measures to reduce emissions and the spread of electric vehicles are limiting fuel consumption growth. The transition of the vehicle fleet to EVs and enhanced energy efficiency in industry are reducing long-term growth rates in oil demand.
- Sanction and Geopolitical Risks: New U.S. restrictions against Rosneft and Lukoil increase uncertainty regarding Russian oil exports (with a deadline established for November 21 for winding down deals). However, actual trading has continued under contracts from previous months: oil flows to Asia (India, Turkey) are still maintained through intermediaries. Any further tightening of sanctions or emergencies at fields could suddenly alter the market balance.
Gas Market: High Stocks and Diversified Supplies
The situation in the gas market is favorable for consumers, especially in Europe. By the start of the heating season, EU underground storage facilities are over 90% filled, bringing spot gas prices down to around €25–30 per MWh (significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022). The influence of traditional suppliers from Russia and Algeria remains limited, and Europe is strengthening diversification through LNG.
- Record European Stocks: The EU has deliberately restrained gas withdrawals during the summer and autumn, maximizing storage levels. The planned target—90% by November 1—has already been exceeded, which instills confidence among consumers heading into the cold season.
- Increase in LNG Supplies: Despite sanctions, the U.S. is ramping up LNG exports to Europe and Asia. Predictions indicate that by the 2026–2029 period, around 70% of European LNG will come from the U.S. (up from 58% currently). The U.S. is building new terminals to offset reductions in Russian and Algerian supplies.
- Reduction of Russian Share: The European Union has planned a complete withdrawal from importing Russian gas starting January 2026 (considering transitional contracts until 2028) and will impose an embargo on Russian LNG from 2027. Russia continues to supply under existing contracts, but new deals are complicated due to European restrictions.
- Price Volatility: With high stock levels, the European market is less vulnerable to fluctuations, but severe cold spells could increase demand and prices again. Asian demand for gas remains moderate (with a decline in Chinese purchases in 2025), reducing the risk of shortages.
Electricity and Renewables: Investment Boom and System Stability
The global electricity sector continues to change dynamically under the influence of the energy transition. Renewable sources are becoming an increasingly significant factor, but major economies still rely on traditional resources and storage systems to maintain network reliability.
- Record Investments in Renewables: In 2025, record capacities of solar and wind power plants are being commissioned. IEA analysts predict that solar panels will account for up to 80% of the global generating capacity increase by 2030. In several regions (Europe, North America, China), the share of renewables in the overall energy balance has exceeded 30%.
- Rising Electricity Demand: Global electricity consumption is growing at an accelerated pace (around 2–3% per year), largely driven by the development of data centers, AI, and the electrification of transport. This is stimulating investments in new hydroelectric stations, nuclear power plants, gas-fired power plants, and, of course, in energy networks and storage to smooth out peaks.
- Integration and Reliability: The rapid growth of renewable capacities necessitates the modernization of energy networks. The IEA and WEF emphasize the need for significant investments in smart grids and storage systems (batteries, pumped storage) to ensure system flexibility and prevent outages with variable generation.
- Government Programs: Many countries are solidifying their "green transformation" policies: target levels are set for renewable energy and mechanisms are introduced to support producers of "clean" electricity. This creates a favorable environment for energy companies focused on investments in renewable technologies.
Coal Industry: Demand in Asia and Gradual Decline in the West
The global coal sector is showing mixed dynamics. On one hand, global coal prices have risen in recent weeks—by the end of October, quotations reached approximately $109 per ton (a two-month high). On the other hand, annual prices continue to be significantly below last year's levels. Key changes are associated with Asia and the regulatory environment.
- Price Stabilization: Under pressure from Asian demand, coal prices increased by approximately 3–4% over the last month (to around $108–110/ton). However, prices are still about 20–25% lower than October 2024 levels. China and India are gradually reducing purchases in a saturated market but are planning peak demand around 2030 in the long term.
- Asian Demand: China, India, Japan, and Korea continue to be the largest coal buyers. Even with the growing share of renewables in the energy balance, these countries maintain significant coal generation to ensure network stability. Conversely, Europe and the U.S. are reducing consumption: the closure of coal-fired power plants and the transition to gas and renewables are decreasing coal's share in Western energy.
- Investment Trends: China has announced that it will maintain investments in coal energy for the foreseeable future. In contrast, Western governments are promoting a shift away from coal-fired power plants (some of the largest U.S. and European plants plan to close ahead of schedule). This creates a "two-speed" market dynamic.
Refining and Fuel Market: Recovery from the Crisis
The petroleum product market remains balanced. On a global scale, refineries are operating at high capacity to meet autumn demand for gasoline and diesel fuel. In Europe and Asia, a surplus fuel balance is forming, while Russia has fully restored domestic production after the summer of 2025 (Outcome of the Summer Fuel Crisis in the RF).
- Russian Fuel Market: Following an October deficit, the Russian government introduced stringent export controls and supported refineries, allowing for increased production of gasoline and diesel. As a result, local shortages have been eliminated, wholesale fuel prices have dropped from their peaks, and gas stations have received sufficient fuel ahead of winter.
- Global Demand Trends: In developed countries, there is moderate growth in gasoline consumption (due to economic recovery and tourism), but industrial demand for petroleum products is restrained by the development of alternative fuels. Investment in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is increasing in aviation, and in automotive transport, investments are being made in electric and hybrid vehicles.
- Refinery Modernization: As environmental standards tighten, refineries are adapting production. In Europe, refineries are increasing the share of low-octane and bio-blends, while in Asia, modernization efforts are underway to reduce sulfur emissions. This confirms the trend towards "cleaning up" petroleum products and transitioning to new fuel types.
- Fuel Prices: Market quotations for gasoline and diesel remain in a moderate range: in Europe, ultra-light gasoline costs around $800–820/ton, while diesel fuel is approximately $780–800/ton, closer to mid-2025 levels. Domestic fuel prices in Russia have stabilized below the peaks of 2022–2023 due to government measures.
Sanctions and Geopolitics: New Restrictions and Workarounds
Political factors continue to exert a significant influence on the fuel and energy sector. At the end of October, the U.S. and European Union introduced new sanctions packages against Russia, targeting the oil and gas sector and financial structures. This is provoking a realignment of supply chains and forcing buyers to seek alternatives.
- U.S. Against Rosneft and Lukoil: The administration has imposed sanctions on the subsidiaries of the two largest Russian oil companies. They have been given a few more weeks to wind down deals (final deadline is November 21), causing difficulties with banking operations and payments. Meanwhile, Russia is focusing on mitigating currency risks.
- EU and Russian LNG: The 19th sanctions package of the EU includes a ban on purchasing Russian LNG starting in April 2026 (for short-term contracts) and January 2027 (for long-term). The EU is also expanding the list of technologies and financing prohibited for export related to the Russian fuel and energy sector. Moscow's response has been to implement countermeasures and diversify its oil and gas supplies through friendly countries.
- Trading Flows: Under pressure from sanctions, major buyers of Russian oil (India, China, Turkey) are increasing purchases through trading firms and mixed deals, trying to circumvent restrictions. Europe is ramping up oil and gas purchases from alternative sources (the U.S., Middle East, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan), while Russia is strengthening ties with southern routes, including through Black Sea ports.
- Market Impact: The risk of new sanctions and geopolitical conflicts remains one of the main drivers of short-term price volatility. However, these risks simultaneously prevent a deep decline in quotes, as market participants await resolutions regarding contract statuses and assessments of the impact of new restrictions.
Forecasts and Prospects for the Fuel and Energy Sector
By the end of 2025, the fuel and energy sector is expected to adapt to the new market and geopolitical realities. In the coming weeks, the following trends are anticipated:
- OPEC+ and Oil Supply: At the November 2 meeting, OPEC+ will again review quotas and, according to analysts, may increase production by around 137,000 barrels/day (December quotas). This will support the trend towards gradual recovery of supply that began in October.
- Demand for Energy Resources: International agencies expect moderate growth in demand for oil and gas in 2026. The global economy is recovering from last year's shocks, but oversupply and the development of alternative energy will limit a sharp rise in prices.
- Energy Transition: The investment boom in renewable energy will continue. Long-term emissions reduction targets and technological innovations (such as hydrogen projects, battery storage) will be priorities for funds and governments, while traditional sources will remain foundational in the balance.
- Energy Security and Climate: High storage utilization and supply diversification enhance energy consumption stability during winter. However, sharp climate fluctuations (an abnormally cold winter) or unforeseen disruptions may temporarily change the situation. Countries continue to build strategic reserves and enhance energy networks to avoid crises.
