Upcoming IPOs in Russia and Worldwide: Monitoring, Roadshows, and Market Expectations
An initial public offering (IPO) is akin to a financial theater, where every move is meticulously planned, yet the outcome remains uncertain. Currently, the IPO market is undergoing transformation. Thousands of companies across the globe are contemplating entering the public sphere, but the reality often diverges from expectations. In 2024-2025, investors, analysts, and the issuers themselves are in a continuous state of seeking answers: when will the next wave of offerings arrive, which companies will truly be prepared, and where can they find information to not miss out on intriguing opportunities.
Understanding the mechanisms of preparing and executing IPOs, the ability to track upcoming offerings, and interpreting market signals have become critical skills for investors, financial analysts, and corporate leaders. Geopolitical instability, market volatility, and macroeconomic uncertainty are making the IPO planning process more challenging than ever. While in the early 2020s companies could almost guarantee investors for their offerings, today, each IPO must carefully justify its attractiveness and valuation fairness.
Information Infrastructure: Where to Find Data on Upcoming IPOs
Official Channels of Exchange Operators
Finding reliable information about upcoming IPOs is akin to navigating a labyrinth of official channels, media sources, and paid analytical platforms. Each channel provides a piece of the puzzle, and it is only by combining several sources that an investor gains a complete overview of the upcoming deals.
Official channels of exchange operators remain the primary source. The Moscow Exchange publishes information about received listing applications in the "Regulatory and Reference Documents" section of its website. Here, key parameters are indicated: the company's name, industry sector, names of underwriters, expected bookbuilding period, and approximate trading start date. However, the information is often minimal and serves more for regulatory notification than for investment analysis. The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ publish similar information through their channels, including detailed calendars of upcoming offerings, specifying volumes, price ranges, and process status.
Paid Analytical Platforms
Paid analytical platforms — Bloomberg Terminal, Refinitiv Eikon, S&P Global Capital IQ — provide the most comprehensive information package for professionals. These systems track every stage of IPO preparation, from the initial announcement of intentions to the completion of bookbuilding. They include historical data about offerings, financial metrics of companies, syndicate composition, expected timelines, and often even valuation opinions from leading investment banks. However, access to these platforms requires costly subscriptions, making them available primarily to financial institutions and professional investors.
Public Information Sources
For retail investors and analysts, publicly available alternatives exist. Major financial media — Reuters, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal — regularly publish news about planned and ongoing IPOs. In the Russian market, this role is played by RBC, Kommersant, and Interfax, which track the Moscow Exchange's calendar and provide analytical comments. Such sources are useful for getting a general picture, but information often arrives with a delay and is not always detailed enough for making investment decisions.
Investment Bank Newsletters
Investment banks' informational newsletters present an interesting and often overlooked source. Major underwriters (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank) regularly send updates about placements they organize to their clients. These newsletters often contain detailed analytical reviews, historical comparisons, valuation opinions, and forecasts. Access to these emails is granted to bank clients — they receive early information, often presented in a more structured form than public information.
Investor Communities and Multi-tier Monitoring
Specialized communities of investors and financial analysts (for instance, forums on platforms like Seeking Alpha, Reddit communities, local investment clubs) serve as venues for sharing information and analyzing upcoming IPOs. These sources are less reliable than official channels but often contain deep insights from market participants who have access to paid data and are willing to share their findings.
In practice, experienced investors employ a multi-tiered approach. They start by checking official exchange calendars, then move on to news agencies for context, consult specialized media for deep analysis, and if they have access, use paid platforms for a detailed examination of financial metrics and deal parameters. Such comprehensive monitoring requires time and resources but provides the complete picture necessary for making informed investment decisions. Many seasoned investors also subscribe to newsletters from major investment banks, gaining insights about upcoming offerings before they become public knowledge.
Roadshows: The Art of Persuasion and Demand Generation
Structure and Importance of Roadshows
A roadshow represents one of the most dramatic and psychologically intense phases of a company's IPO preparation. It is not simply a presentation — it is a targeted campaign aimed at generating interest, forming positive perceptions, and ultimately creating demand for shares in the upcoming offering.
The structure of a roadshow reflects the geopolitical and economic hierarchy of contemporary financial markets. The first phase — meetings with institutional investors — is considered the most critical since these players often determine the success of the entire offering. Major pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, and asset management investors are located in the world's financial hubs: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and other large centers. For Russian IPOs, this process typically begins with meetings in Moscow, which may then extend to European and Asian centers, especially if foreign capital is sought.
Preparation of Presentation Material
Roadshow preparation begins several weeks prior to the announcement of bookbuilding. The company’s management works with the organizing banks' consultants to develop presentation material. A standard presentation is created, usually comprising 30-50 slides, that narrates the company’s story: its origins, business model, achieved results, competitive position, market opportunities, and critically, a justification of the proposed valuation. Slides are carefully tested — what message do they convey, what questions might arise, how best to present the information.
Meeting Process and Interaction with Investors
Meetings typically include the CEO and CFO of the company, and sometimes the COO and other key managers. The logic behind this composition is simple: the CEO tells the company’s story and vision, while the CFO delves into the financial metrics and details. Meetings are often held at investors' offices or in specially booked conference rooms at hotels. Each meeting usually lasts 45-60 minutes: 20-30 minutes for the presentation, the remainder for questions and discussion.
The questions posed by investors often become more critical and probing as the roadshow progresses. Initial meetings tend to be more friendly, but as information about the company spreads among investors, they begin to focus on potential weaknesses. Investors inquire about the company's real market share, key competitors, how well competitive advantages are protected, growth rates in various segments, plans for using the raised capital, key business risks, and management practices.
Quality of Presentation and Its Impact
The quality of answers to these questions often determines the success of the roadshow. Management that is well-prepared and can critically discuss the company's problems without attempting to hide issues tends to create a positive impression. Conversely, management that avoids difficult questions, gives vague answers, or appears uninformed can significantly undermine investor interest in the offering.
Retail Roadshow and Meeting Geography
The second phase of the roadshow — meetings with retail investors — usually occurs in parallel with institutional investor meetings but can be time-shifted. Retail roadshows are often conducted in the form of webinars (especially common post-pandemic), which are more scalable and allow for a larger investor audience. The presentation, in this case, is often simplified — avoiding in-depth financial details and focusing on ease of understanding and business idea attractiveness.
During meetings, investors often receive brochures (pitchbooks) that contain essential information: company history, key financial metrics, market analysis, and intended use of raised capital. These materials are prepared by bank specialists and often serve as the basis for deciding to participate in the IPO.
The geography of the roadshow plays an important role in the success of the offering. A significant international IPO may cover up to 15 cities over 2-3 weeks. For Russian IPOs, if the company aims to attract solely Russian capital, meetings are often limited to Moscow and several major regional centers. However, if the goal is to attract foreign investments, the roadshow may include a trip through Europe and Asia.
Duration and Impact on Demand
The duration and intensity of the roadshow depend on the size and complexity of the deal. Smaller IPOs worth $100-200 million can be prepared through a series of conference calls and a few in-person meetings. Large offerings, especially international ones, require an entire series of events in different countries. During an intensive roadshow, management experiences constant stress — they must repeat the same presentation dozens of times, answer critical questions, and maintain enthusiasm and confidence in the company despite fatigue.
The impact of the roadshow on bookbuilding results is huge. Data indicates that much of the demand for the offering is formed during the roadshow, following investor meetings with the company's management. If the roadshow proceeds successfully, if management makes a positive impression and can convince investors of the company's appeal, bookbuilding usually displays strong demand, multiple oversubscriptions, and potential price increases. Conversely, an unsuccessful roadshow often leads to weak demand, forcing companies to lower prices or even cancel the offering.
Market Expectations Dynamics: From Euphoria to Caution
Macroeconomic Factors
Market expectations regarding future IPO activity have a life of their own, often reflecting not so much the actual state of companies preparing for offerings but rather the overall psychological state of investors and the global economic backdrop. These expectations are shaped by a multitude of factors, some with clear economic justification, while others reflect irrational fears and hopes.
The macroeconomic environment creates a general backdrop for shaping expectations. Interest rates set by central banks directly influence the attractiveness of investments in growth companies and IPOs. When interest rates are low and investors can only earn modest income from risk-free assets (bonds, bank deposits), they are willing to take on more risk by investing in emerging companies. This creates a favorable environment for IPOs — companies receive higher valuations, and investors are eager to participate in offerings. Conversely, when central banks raise rates to combat inflation and attractive returns become available from bonds, investors begin to shift from riskier assets to more conservative options. IPO activity subsequently declines, as both companies and investors await a clearer picture.
Volatility and Sector Trends
Volatility in stock markets serves as an indicator of the level of uncertainty and fear among investors. High volatility often suggests that the market oscillates between hope and fear, and in this environment, investors are less likely to engage in IPOs of young companies with high levels of uncertainty. Calm markets with upward trends, on the other hand, encourage a revival of IPO activity.
Sector trends play a critical role in shaping specific expectations. In 2017-2018, investors were obsessed with blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and even companies with a distant connection to these technologies could attract huge sums through IPOs with nearly bewildering valuations. Subsequently, attention shifted to cloud computing, and then to AI. Each time a new hot topic emerges, companies in that sector enjoy favorable conditions for offerings. However, periods of enthusiasm are typically followed by cooling periods, when it becomes clear that many companies were overvalued, and the market begins to demand stricter adherence between valuation and actual performance.
Geopolitical Factors and Historical Cycles
Geopolitical factors increasingly influence expectations. Sanctions, trade wars, international conflicts create uncertainties and often lead to the postponement or cancellation of planned IPOs. Following the imposition of sanctions against Russia in 2022, most Russian IPOs slated for international exchanges were canceled. Companies and investors have reassessed their strategies in light of the new reality.
Historical cycles show that the IPO market follows patterns of booms and busts. The year 2021 was extraordinary for IPOs — in terms of both the number of offerings and the capital raised, records were set. However, in 2022-2023, activity dropped by 70-80% from peak levels. By 2024-2025, the market is gradually recovering but remains significantly more conservative than in 2021. Investors have become more selective, demanding better justification of valuations and clarity on capital usage strategies.
Analytical Forecasts and Their Significance
Analysts and journalists regularly publish forecasts about future market activity for IPOs spanning a year or multiple years. These forecasts often differ radically — some predict a recovery and a return to historically normal levels of activity, while others warn of continued periods of quiet. Reality typically lies somewhere in between, but the very process of forming and debating forecasts is crucial for understanding market expectations. These expectations often turn into self-fulfilling prophecies: if the majority of analysts predict a market revival, investors become more confident and willing to participate in new offerings, which in turn fosters actual revival.
Pricing: From Analysis to Bookbuilding
Initial Analysis and Range Determination
Determining a fair price for an IPO is one of the most complex and manipulatable tasks in the financial industry. The process begins months before the bookbuilding announcement and requires coordination among the issuing company, offering managers, financial consultants, and regulators.
Offering managers start by conducting a detailed analysis of the company: its financial metrics, growth rates, competitive position, and prospects. They then identify comparable companies in the same industry that are already trading on the public market and analyze the multiples at which these companies are valued. If comparable companies are trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x, and the assessed company shares similar characteristics, it is logical to assume it should be valued with a similar multiple. However, in reality, things are much more complex.
Multiplier Analysis and Premiums
Differences in growth rates, profitability, management quality, and competitive positioning reasonably lead to varying multiples for different companies. High-growth firms are often valued at a premium — they trade at a higher P/E than slower-growing peers. Companies with strong brands and enduring competitive advantages receive a premium, while firms with high-risk business models, conversely, receive a discount — investors demand a lower price as compensation for risk.
Based on the analysis of comparables, offering managers propose to the company a preliminary price range. For instance, they might say: "Based on our analysis, a fair valuation for your company lies in the range of $20-28 per share." This range is generally wider than the final price to allow for flexibility depending on the demand revealed during bookbuilding.
The Role of Bookbuilding in Pricing
The price range is announced by the company in the so-called "red herring" (preliminary prospectus) — the initial version of the security prospectus. At this stage, investors begin conducting their analysis of the company, forming their own opinions on fair price and deciding what positions they might take in the bookbuilding.
Bookbuilding is the central pricing process during an IPO. Offering managers call their large clients — institutional investors — and inquire about how many shares they would be willing to purchase at various price points. An investor might say, "At $20 I would like to buy 500,000 shares, at $24 — 300,000, at $28 — I'm not interested." Based on information from all potential investors, managers create a demand schedule showing the total number of shares investors are willing to purchase at each price.
Interpreting Demand and Final Pricing
If the demand schedule shows that even at the minimum price in the range all shares of the offering are oversubscribed (i.e., demand exceeds supply), it signifies strong market interest in the company. In this case, managers may suggest that the company raise the price range or announce the final price at the upper end of the initial range. Conversely, if even at the maximum price demand covers only a portion of the shares, it indicates weak interest, and the company will have to either lower the price, cut the offering size, or postpone the IPO.
The dynamics of bookbuilding often reflect not just the company’s real value but the psychological state of the market at a specific moment. During "hot" market periods, when investors are eager to aggressively compete for shares in popular IPOs, bookbuilding may show 5-10 times oversubscription, allowing the company to significantly increase its price. In "cold" market periods, even quality companies may receive weak demand.
The final price is typically announced after the bookbuilding closes, often in the evening or night according to Moscow time (depending on participants' time zones). The final price can fall within the initially announced range but often exceeds it. In the case of strong demand, the price may be raised by 10-20% above the maximum of the range. In the case of weak demand, the price may be reduced to the point that the company cancels the offering.
Global IPO Markets: Geographical Activity and Recovery
Global Distribution of IPOs by Region
The IPO market in 2024-2025 is demonstrating a distinct geographical and sectoral differentiation. North America, which has historically dominated capital raising, remains the largest market, but its share of global totals is declining. Asia, particularly Hong Kong and other financial centers in Southeast Asia, is exhibiting an upward trend. According to analytics agencies, in 2024 the Asia-Pacific region may potentially surpass North America for the number of new offerings, although in terms of raised amounts, the American market remains stronger due to the high average value of American IPOs.
Characteristics of the Russian IPO Market
The Moscow Exchange is in a unique position. Following the sanctions in 2022 and the delisting of many Russian companies from Western platforms, the Moscow Exchange has become virtually the only option for Russian issuers. This has led to a resurgence of activity in Russia, albeit under conditions of limited foreign investor participation. Russian IPOs in 2024-2025 primarily attract Russian and Kazakh capital, along with foreign investments from companies and funds that are not under sanctions. This situation paradoxically fostered the development of the domestic investment base, as Russian investors were forced to realign from international platforms to the Moscow Exchange.
Recovery in Developed Markets
In the U.S., the IPO market is recovering following the downturn of 2023. However, this recovery is uneven — technology companies are showing stronger demand than traditional sectors. The average size of IPOs remains lower than in 2021 — companies prefer conducting more modest offerings than previously. At NASDAQ, which has traditionally been the platform for young technology firms, there has been an interesting shift in 2024-2025 towards more "boring" companies in traditional sectors, reflecting a more conservative approach by investors towards new offerings.
Europe, particularly London and major continental exchanges, is also showing gradual revival, but the pace of recovery is slower compared to the U.S. and Asia. At Euronext, for example, the number of new offerings in 2024 remained significantly below historical norms.
Participants' Ecosystem: Roles and Interactions
Key Players
Each IPO represents a complex ecosystem in which dozens of organizations and hundreds of professionals work in concert to achieve one goal — a successful offering. Understanding the roles of each participant helps an investor better evaluate the quality of preparation and the likelihood of offering success.
The issuer (company) initiates the process and is the main "client" of the entire operation. The issuer's board of directors decides to conduct the IPO, hires organizers and consultants, and makes key strategic choices. The company’s management is responsible for preparing financial information, participating in the roadshow, and negotiating with investors. The success of the entire offering often depends on how well the management is prepared and how convincingly it can communicate the company’s story.
Organizers and Syndicate
Offering organizers (lead managers, bookrunners) are usually one, two, or three large investment banks. They lead the entire IPO process: advising the company on deal structure, coordinating bookbuilding, interacting with regulators, managing the underwriting syndicate, and ensuring the distribution of shares among investors. For their services, they receive a commission, usually ranging from 3-5% of the raised capital volume. In major offerings amounting to billions of dollars, this commission can reach hundreds of millions of dollars, explaining the fierce competition among banks for the role of organizer.
The underwriting syndicate consists of dozens, or even hundreds, of investment banks that assist the organizers in the share placement. In large IPOs, the syndicate may include up to 50-100 banks. Each bank in the syndicate commits to sell a certain volume of shares to its clients or market-makers in exchange for a share of the commission. Syndicate members often compensate each other in the open market for shares that they received in excess of their needs and buy shares they lack, creating a secondary market in the early trading days.
Consultants and Regulators
Legal advisors represent the interests of both the issuer and the organizers. The main legal firm on the issuer's side prepares the prospectus, interacts with regulators, conducts due diligence, and advises on structural and regulatory issues. The organizing legal firm ensures that the deal is structured correctly and complies with all requirements.
Auditors conduct independent examinations of the company’s financial statements. The auditor’s verdict is one of the most critical conditions for investors. If auditors express doubts about the accuracy of the statements (qualified opinion), it may significantly undermine demand for the offering. The Big Four audit firms (Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG) participate in the overwhelming majority of major IPOs worldwide.
Regulators (the Central Bank of Russia for Russian IPOs, SEC for American ones, FCA for British ones, etc.) oversee the process, ensuring compliance with rules and protecting investors' rights. Regulatory approval is critical for carrying out the offering. The regulatory approval process can take several months and sometimes becomes a bottleneck in IPO preparation.
Investors and Their Motives
Investors represent various types, each with its own motives and constraints. Large pension funds often seek long-term investments with relatively predictable cash flow and growth potential. Hedge funds may look for short-term profits from price volatility in the first weeks of trading post-IPO. Mutual funds often participate in IPOs that fit within their investment mandates by sector and company size. Retail investors frequently participate in hopes of rapid stock price increases on the first trading days, although statistics show that many IPOs experience price declines in the initial weeks after the offering.
Media and analysts play a significant role in shaping public opinion about the offering. Positive reviews and forecasts can lead to a surge in interest, whereas critical remarks can alert investors. Major outlets publish detailed reviews and analyses before big IPOs, helping investors form their own opinions.
Making Investment Decisions: Comprehensive Analysis
Macro-Level Analysis
For an investor considering participation in an upcoming IPO, the decision-making process necessitates analysis on multiple levels simultaneously. At the macro level, it is crucial to assess whether the IPO market is in a favorable phase. Periods of high volatility, low risk appetite, and competing macroeconomic events often do not bode well for new company offerings. When central banks raise rates, when bonds provide attractive yields, and when recession risks loom, investors frequently prefer to avoid IPOs of young companies with high uncertainty.
Micro-Level Analysis of the Company
At the micro-level, a detailed analysis of the company itself is essential: financial metrics, business model, competitive position, and management quality. An investor must check whether the company has sustainable competitive advantages or if its market position depends on temporary factors. It is necessary to evaluate how fair the assessment presented in the IPO is compared to comparable companies and historical medians for the sector.
Information Search and Monitoring
Keeping track of the calendar of planned IPOs, studying available roadshow materials, reading analytical reviews, and interpreting bookbuilding results helps investors make more informed decisions. It is especially important to compare the proposed price with independent estimates of fair value, often published by investment banking analysts. If the final price substantially exceeds analysts' estimates, it may signal overvaluation.
Fair Price Assessment
Understanding the demand formation process during bookbuilding and the factors influencing the final price helps investors gauge whether they are receiving a fair price or overpaying for a hot trend. Historically, IPO markets often overvalue "hot" offerings, and investors participating in the initial wave frequently encounter price declines in the months that follow. On the other hand, boring, conservative offerings often yield better long-term results.
Risk Management
Risk management when participating in IPOs is critical. It is advisable not to concentrate too large a portion of a portfolio in one offering, diversify participation across several IPOs, avoid using borrowed funds for participation in offerings, and have a clear plan for managing the position after trading begins. Many investors have a specific return percentage that they aim to achieve from an IPO (for instance, 15-20% in the first year) and take profits once that goal is reached, rather than hoping for large gains that often do not materialize.
Final Wisdom
Successful investing in IPOs requires a balance between caution and boldness, between following macro market trends and deep analysis of specific companies. Those investors who can combine these approaches and remain disciplined in their investment decisions often achieve returns that exceed market averages. The IPO market remains one of the most intriguing and promising segments of equity markets, but it also poses one of the highest risks for unprepared participants. Thus, a systematic approach to monitoring, analysis, and decision-making regarding IPOs can serve as a foundation for long-term investing success.
