Current News in the Energy Sector as of February 16, 2026: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, LNG Market, Electricity Situation, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Petroleum Products. Analysis for Investors and Participants in the Global Energy Market.
Oil: US-Iran Negotiations and the Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting in April
As of February 16, 2026, Brent crude is approximately $67.72 per barrel, while WTI is around $62.86. Last week, Brent declined by about 0.5% and WTI by approximately 1%: the market reacted to signals regarding a possible US-Iran deal, but the premium could not be fully eliminated due to the risks of negotiation failure and supply factors. In the US, there is also no reported WTI benchmark price today due to the holiday, reducing the informational value of daily movements in the American segment of the curve.
The medium-term focus is shifting towards OPEC+: sources indicate some members are leaning towards raising quotas starting in April; a crucial meeting among eight member countries is scheduled for March 1. For the spring-summer horizon, this increases the importance of spreads (front-month/long-term contracts) and differentials among crude grades, particularly during periods of thin liquidity. Fundamental assessments are also diverging: the International Energy Agency's February review reflects a more moderate demand growth and significant inventory accumulation, which limits the potential for price increases without new supply disruptions.Sanctions and Logistics: The Cost of Maritime Services as a Market Factor
The EU has proposed a broader ban on services that support maritime exports of Russian crude oil. If the package is adopted, it could replace the price cap regime and increase insurance, freight, and compliance costs across the entire supply chain. Consequently, the role of the "shadow" fleet is amplified, and the premium for transparent logistics is rising—especially on routes from Russia to Asia and within the petroleum products segment, where traceability has become a commercial condition for access to the EU.
Regarding gas, the sanctioning framework is becoming "long-term": the EU approved a mandatory schedule to cease imports of Russian LNG by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027, with limited capacity to shift timelines in the event of storage filling issues. This enhances the value of long-term LNG contracts, regasification capacities, and portfolio flexibility for European buyers and suppliers.Gas: TTF for Europe, Henry Hub for the US, LNG for Asia
European gas prices (TTF) are holding steady near the low €30/MWh range (with recent available figures around €32/MWh). The market is preemptively assessing the complexities of the injection season in underground gas storage amidst a structural exit from Russian volumes: news regarding the LNG fleet, routes, and regulations quickly translates into premiums at hubs and increased costs for "flexibility."
In the US, after the extremes in January, Henry Hub has returned to a range of about $3–3.5/MMBtu for near-term futures, although the EIA forecast still anticipates a higher average price for 2026 (around $4.3/MMBtu). In Asia, the LNG price benchmark (JKM) for spring contracts is positioned around $10–11/MMBtu: the market is awaiting a wave of new capacity coming online in 2026 and a recovery of Chinese imports, although not necessarily to 2024 levels.
Electricity and Grids: EU Industries Pressuring Regulators
Within the EU, leaders from Central European countries are calling for reductions in electricity prices as a condition for industrial competitiveness, highlighting the impact of expensive gas and the costs of carbon regulation under the ETS. Simultaneously, options for adjusting the system of free quotas and the trajectory of ETS2 are being discussed, which is essential for electricity, metals, and chemicals markets.
Grid constraints have become a key "bottleneck" in the energy transition. France is pushing the idea of a unified energy market and integrated European grid, while regulators in the UK and France have suspended the approval of a new interconnector, citing a dispute over cost and revenue distribution. From an investment perspective, this signifies: the share of system costs (grid, balancing, connection) in electricity bills is increasing and may surpass the pure wholesale price.
Renewables: Auctions Accelerating Deployment while Supply Chains Become Expensive
The recent UK Contracts for Difference auction confirmed the scale of demand for renewable energy: projects totaling 6.2 GW were selected (of which 4.9 GW is solar generation), with the cumulative capacity of the round estimated at 14.7 GW. Importantly for the market are the strike prices (in 2024 prices): solar generation and onshore wind remain competitive against new gas plants at contract pricing.
In Northern Europe, the focus remains on offshore wind and shared infrastructure. For renewable energy investors, this shifts the focus from "clean generation" to networks, storage, fleet servicing, and equipment—segments where capacity shortages and delivery delays are most frequently observed in the capital investment cycle.
Coal: Structural Shift in Trade Amidst Rising Domestic Production
Despite record global demand in 2025, maritime coal imports in Asia have decreased: the market is increasingly defined by China and India, both ramping up domestic production while simultaneously increasing the share of renewables in generation. China expects its production to rise to 4.86 billion tons in 2026 (the slowest pace in a decade) and forecasts a decline in imports amid supply risks from Indonesia. The price corridor for thermal coal is holding around $110–120/ton in mid-February, supporting exporters' offers and maintaining coal's competitiveness against LNG in coastal Asian regions.
Petroleum Products and Refineries: Incidents in Russia and Diesel Flow Reconfigurations
The petroleum products market (diesel/gasoil, gasoline, fuel oil) remains vulnerable to refinery accidents and sanctions logistics. At the Volgograd refinery, production was halted due to drone attacks: damage to a key unit raises the risk of short-term premiums in regional supply chains. In Europe, sanctions are altering operational models: TotalEnergies has taken full operational control of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands, supplying raw materials and capturing the entire output while maintaining a share of Russian stakeholder capital.
Following the EU's ban on imports of fuel produced from Russian oil, diesel flows are being redistributed: Indian supplies are shifting to West Africa, while Europe is increasing imports from the US and the Middle Eastern countries. This makes petroleum products more sensitive to freight and compliance issues than to crude oil prices themselves, raising the value of "flexible" refineries with access to various raw material grades.
Forecast for Tuesday, February 17, 2026
- Oil: the key risk revolves around news from Geneva (US-Iran) and expectations from OPEC+ ahead of March 1, 2026; the base scenario anticipates Brent in the high $60s while maintaining a risk premium.
- Gas: for Europe—weather and the speed of transition to the injection season; for the US—temperature forecasts and expectations concerning EIA reports; for Asia—the JKM/TTF spread and availability of the LNG fleet.
- Electricity: political signals regarding ETS and network investments in the EU, as well as regulations regarding interconnectors and tariffs in the UK.
Brief Analytical Block: Recommendations
- For Investors: favor businesses with diversified cash flows (integrated majors, gas/LNG portfolios, and networks), as volatility in 2026 often arises from logistics and regulatory issues.
- For Traders: focus on spreads and premiums (oil/petroleum products/freight), not just on "direction"; this is where arbitrage opportunities arise amidst sanctions.
- For Refineries: proactively hedge product premiums and secure alternative logistics for raw materials and shipments—incidents tend to "hit" gasoline and diesel more than crude oil.
- For Renewables and Electricity: evaluate projects considering grid fees, connections, and balancing—system costs are becoming a target of political pressure in the EU.
