Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of December 11, 2025: EU's Rejection of Russian Energy Resources, Oil Market Balance, Global LNG, Russian Exports to Asia, Renewable Energy Sources, and Energy Sector Forecasts. Analytical Overview for Investors and Industry Companies.
The focus is on the decisive steps taken by the European Union to divest from Russian energy resources, the changes in monetary policy in the United States, and their impact on global oil and gas prices, as well as the latest geopolitical events that are affecting the fuel and energy complex. This overview is intended for investors and market participants in the energy sector, including oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, as well as anyone tracking the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and commodity markets.
Global Oil Market: Prices and OPEC+
Global oil prices have stabilized after a recent uptick: a barrel of Brent is trading at around $62, while WTI is in the vicinity of $58. The strengthening of quotes last week was aided by expectations of a reduction in interest rates in the United States and concerns regarding supply constraints (sanction risks for Russian and Venezuelan exports). However, overall in 2025, oil prices have decreased by about 15% as the market faces the threat of oversupply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious stance. At the latest OPEC+ meeting, it was decided to keep the current production quotas unchanged at least for the first quarter of 2026. The alliance continues to withhold some capacity from the market, with around 3.2 million barrels per day (approximately 3% of global demand) remaining "in reserve" under the existing production restriction agreements. With Brent priced around $60, OPEC+ representatives are focusing on market stabilization rather than immediate share expansion, considering the deteriorating supply-demand balance forecast.
Key Factors Currently Influencing the Oil Market:
- Monetary policy of major economies (the easing by the Federal Reserve supports demand prospects).
- Geopolitical tensions (the war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and Iran, risks of conflicts – for example, surrounding Venezuela).
- Actions by OPEC+ (maintaining production restrictions and readiness to respond to possible oil surplus in the market).
- Economic growth rates and demand for commodities (including the recovery in demand in China and accelerated transition to renewable energy sources).
Monetary Policy and Demand for Energy Resources
The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States is easing monetary policy this week: a 0.25% reduction in the base interest rate is expected following the December 10 meeting. This marks the third rate cut of 2025 aimed at supporting the cooling economy and labor market. Lower rates and potential dollar weakening typically stimulate economic growth and demand for energy resources – from gasoline to electricity – which positively impacts the oil and gas market. Industry investors are closely monitoring signals from regulators: the current cycle of monetary policy easing may conclude if inflation stabilizes, yet the very expectations of cheaper borrowing costs have contributed to the recent rise in oil prices.
Europe's Withdrawal from Russian Energy Resources
The European Union is taking decisive steps toward complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, ambassadors of EU member states approved a phased plan to fully phase out all types of Russian gas by the end of 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to the agreement on the upcoming embargo as "the beginning of a new era" for Europe – an era in which European energy will permanently free itself from dependence on Russian energy resources. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen added that in early 2026, a bill will be proposed to ban any imports of Russian oil to "turn off the tap" for supplies from Russia no later than 2027.
These measures continue the course established by the EU following the events of 2022: since then, Europe has drastically reduced its purchases of Russian pipeline gas (nearly to zero) and has imposed an oil embargo on maritime deliveries. The new initiatives aim to enshrine the break with Russia at the legislative level and stimulate the development of alternatives – from increasing LNG imports from the USA, Qatar, and other countries to the accelerated transition to renewable energy sources. The Kremlin has reacted skeptically to the EU's strategy: Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that abandoning relatively cheap Russian gas in favor of more expensive imports would condemn the European economy to rising costs and decreased competitiveness in the long term.
Key Elements of the EU's Energy Strategy:
- Complete divestment from Russian gas: cessation of purchases of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia no later than 2027.
- Embargo on oil and petroleum products: a legislative ban on importing Russian oil and petroleum products is planned by the same date.
- Diversification of supplies: expanding LNG imports from alternative suppliers, increasing domestic renewable energy generation, and enhancing energy efficiency to substitute for Russian hydrocarbons.
Redirecting Russian Supplies to Asia
Facing diminishing Western markets, Russia is actively redirecting its energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as early as late August, the first cargo of liquefied gas from the "Arctic LNG-2" project of Novatek was sent to China, despite the sanctions on this terminal from the USA. According to trader data, Russian LNG shipments to China rose by double digits in the fall, as Beijing eagerly increases purchases of energy resources at a 30-40% discount, ignoring unilateral Western sanctions. The energy cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, supporting the economies of both nations: Russia gains an alternative market for its products while China secures cheap fuel for its needs.
India also remains one of the largest purchasers of Russian oil. Following the EU's embargo, Indian refineries have increased purchases of Urals-grade and other varieties of crude oil at significant discounts to global prices. During recent negotiations, Russian leadership confirmed its readiness to provide India with stable supplies of crude oil and petroleum products. Although New Delhi remains cautious, balancing geopolitical risks, cheap Russian energy resources help meet rising demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check.
At the same time, Moscow is seeking opportunities to expand its export infrastructure to the East. Discussions are underway to increase pipeline capacity to China (the "Power of Siberia-2" project) as well as to enhance its own tanker fleet for delivering oil to Asian markets, circumventing restrictions. These steps are aimed at solidifying the long-term shift of Russian energy flows from West to East.
Key Steps by Russia in Eastern Markets:
- Launch of LNG supplies to China from the new "Arctic LNG-2" project, despite sanctions.
- Increased oil exports to India under preferential conditions (discounts to global prices) and confirmation of readiness to supply the Indian market with fuel.
- Development of infrastructure: plans for new pipelines ("Power of Siberia-2") and expanding the tanker fleet for uninterrupted exports to Asia.
Kazakhstan and Transit Risks
The instability associated with the military conflict in Ukraine presents new risks for energy resource transit in Eurasia. In early December, a Ukrainian drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) marine terminal near Novorossiysk prompted Kazakhstan to reassess its oil export routes. The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan announced that some oil from the Kashagan field would be rerouted through an alternative route to China. Previously, Kazakhstan exported the majority of its oil through the CPC pipeline, which delivers crude to the Black Sea terminal in Russia. The CPC is crucial for transporting oil from key Kazakh fields (Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak) and remains the country's primary export channel.
While the damage from the drone strike did not halt shipments entirely, the incident demonstrated the vulnerability of this international infrastructure. The Kremlin termed the strike on the CPC terminal a horrifying incident, emphasizing the strategic importance of the consortium. Kazakhstan, for its part, has begun diversifying its routes: alongside the Chinese direction, it is considering increasing shipments through Caspian ports and other bypass routes. In the long term, Astana plans to enhance energy security through development efforts: plans have been announced for the construction of a new large refinery with foreign investment, which will increase domestic capacities and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products. Experts note that transit risks through Russian territory are on the rise – such incidents can impact the global oil market, reminding participants of the geopolitical risk premium in prices.
Global Gas and LNG Market
The natural gas market is experiencing relatively stable conditions compared to the frenzy of two years ago. In Europe, despite the impending winter, the pricing situation is calmer than in previous years: gas reserves in underground storage facilities are at comfortable levels, and spot prices are far from the records set in 2022. The reduction in supplies from Russia is being compensated by LNG imports – European terminals are actively receiving gas from the USA, Qatar, Norway, and other sources. According to analysts, from January to November 2025, Russian LNG supplies to the European Union decreased by nearly 7% year-on-year (to ~18 billion cubic meters), reflecting the EU's gradual move away from even liquefied gas from Russia.
The supply of LNG in the global market continues to grow. New export facilities are coming online in the USA: the major Golden Pass terminal in the Gulf of Mexico (a joint project between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil) is preparing to commence shipments, expanding America's export capabilities. Qatar, as part of the North Field expansion project, will increase LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027, signing long-term contracts with European and Asian buyers. Meanwhile, countries in Asia are reacting flexibly to the market situation: for instance, Pakistan has agreed with Qatar to redirect previously designated LNG shipments to other markets due to a temporary gas surplus and weak domestic demand. With new capacities coming online and moderate demand, spot prices for gas are being held at relatively low levels, although weather factors and potential disruptions in supplies can still cause short-term price spikes.
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
The development of renewable energy is gaining momentum, although the climate agenda faces resistance from the oil and gas sector. At the November UN climate conference COP30 in Brazil, heated debates unfolded around the phase-out of fossil fuels. The final draft agreement did not satisfy the European Union, as a straightforward roadmap for a phased withdrawal from oil, gas, and coal was excluded under pressure from a group of major hydrocarbon-exporting countries. As a result, the agreements reached are of a compromise nature: instead of clear commitments to curtail fossil fuel production, countries focused on increasing funding for climate adaptation and general emission reduction goals.
Meanwhile, the energy transition continues to be implemented in practice. The year 2025 has become a record year for the commissioning of new solar and wind generation capacities in many countries. Major economies – from China and India to the USA and the EU – are investing in renewable energy, energy storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, striving to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. However, in the short term, traditional resources maintain an important role: high gas prices have forced some regions to ramp up coal burning for electricity generation in 2025, temporarily putting a pause on the decarbonization trend. Experts believe that as the share of renewable sources increases (supported by government initiatives), demand for coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline, strengthening the global course toward sustainable energy.
Forecasts: A Glimpse into Early 2026
Energy market participants are finishing 2025 with moderate optimism, but without excessive illusions. Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices may come under pressure due to rising inventories: some forecasts indicate a decline in Brent prices to $55–60 per barrel, barring any new shocks. At the same time, geopolitical factors – from the evolving situation in Ukraine to sanctions decisions and localized conflicts (including possible escalation in Venezuela or the Middle East) – could sharply influence market conditions. In the gas market, the upcoming months largely depend on weather: during a mild winter and with sufficient reserves, gas prices will remain low, but unexpected cold spells or supply chain disruptions could lead to price spikes.
For investors and companies in the sector, adapting to new conditions will be of particular importance. Diversifying supply sources, increasing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including in the renewable energy sector) will become key elements of business resilience. The outgoing year of 2025 has demonstrated the close interconnection of economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen further: the global market will need to balance between oversupply and the risks of shortage, while the global community will seek to find a balance between energy security and climate goals.
