Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Markets as of November 24, 2025: Global Events, Analysis, Refining, Gas, Power Generation, and Oil Products.
As the new week begins, global oil and gas markets are reacting to key geopolitical signals and industry events. Amid attempts to diplomatically resolve the conflict in Ukraine, oil prices have slipped to a monthly low, and notable shifts are occurring in the energy sector – from increased LNG exports to Europe to record profits in oil refining and compromise results from the COP30 climate summit. Below is an overview of the main news and trends in the fuel and energy sector as of November 24, 2025.
Global Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and New Sanctions
Oil prices are declining. Global oil prices ended last week at the lowest level in a month. Brent fell to around $62.5 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $58.1, which is 3% lower than the previous week’s levels. The pressure on prices stems from the US initiative to achieve a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: investors are pricing in the potential for an end to the protracted conflict and the easing of some sanctions, which could bring additional volumes of Russian oil back to the market. Concurrently, risk sentiment is weakened by high interest rates in the US and the strengthening dollar, making commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Sanctions and prospects for their removal. On Friday, November 21, new US sanctions went into effect against the largest Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. These restrictions aim to further reduce Russia's oil export revenues. However, the US-approved peace plan for Ukraine implies that if the agreements are implemented, these sanctions might be lifted. The market is already factoring in this possibility: the risk of disruptions in Russian supplies has somewhat decreased, though experts caution that a real peace deal is far from guaranteed. Moscow and Kyiv remain skeptical about the plan’s conditions, and analysts note that a final agreement may take a long time to secure.
Supply and demand balance. Fundamental factors in the oil market are shifting towards a potential oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its forecast in its latest report: it is expected that by 2026, the global oil market will transition into a slight surplus. OPEC+ plans to adhere to a cautious policy – the cartel previously indicated it would pause production increases in Q1 2026 to prevent an oversupply amid rising shipments from non-OPEC countries. Banking analysts (including Goldman Sachs) also forecast moderate oil price declines over the next year or two due to accelerating supply growth. A further indicator of oversupply is the record volume of oil being stored on tankers at sea: traders estimate that due to sanctions, a significant portion of Russian crude is accumulating in floating storage while waiting for buyers. All these factors combined are keeping oil prices under pressure.
US Shale Production: Testing the $60 Threshold
Low oil prices are starting to impact the US shale sector. In the country’s largest oil basin – the Permian Basin (Texas and New Mexico) – drilling activity is declining. Companies are shutting down drilling rigs, and a wave of layoffs has swept through the industry: the cost of shale oil production for several independent producers is approaching current market prices of around $60 per barrel, putting the profitability of new wells into question. Reports from the region indicate that dozens of drilling rigs have been halted in recent weeks, and some oilfield services are optimizing their workforce.
Nevertheless, experts note that the US shale industry has previously navigated similar downturns and displayed resilience. Major players with stable funding are seizing the moment to acquire assets: as production declines, merger and acquisition activities have intensified. The industry was recently stirred by ExxonMobil's significant acquisition of a shale producer, strengthening the major's position in the Permian Basin. Consolidation is expected to continue, as smaller producers prefer to sell or merge rather than face price pressures. If prices remain relatively low, a slowing of US production could stabilize the market and potentially lead to a new tightening of supply in the second half of 2026, which would, in turn, support prices.
Oil Products and Refining: Margin Surge and Infrastructure Issues
Record profits for refiners. Unlike crude oil, refined product markets are showing heightened tension. In November, refining margins for oil on many key markets reached multi-year highs. According to industry analysts, European refineries are achieving around $30–34 of net profit per barrel of crude oil sold – a level unseen since 2023. A similar situation is observed in the US (the 3-2-1 crack spread index is nearing record values) and in Asia. Several factors have played in favor of refiners:
- Capacity cuts: A series of scheduled and unscheduled refinery shutdowns worldwide have led to reduced supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Some refineries in the US and Europe have closed in recent years, while major new refineries in Nigeria and the Middle East (e.g., Dangote, Al-Zour) temporarily reduced output due to repairs and commissioning.
- Drone attacks and sanctions: Drone strikes on refinery facilities and pipelines in Russia during the conflict have lowered exports of oil products from that country. At the same time, embargoes and tariffs on Russian oil products (imposed by Western countries) have limited the availability of diesel fuel in the global market, especially in Europe.
- High diesel demand: Europe is experiencing a structural diesel fuel shortage – economic growth and cold weather support demand, while local refining does not fully cover it. Import supplies from Asia, the Middle East, and the US are not always able to fill the gap, pushing diesel prices higher.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that due to this refining margin rally, oil companies are revising their forecasts: despite gloomy expectations at the beginning of the year, the third quarter of 2025 proved to be extremely successful for the downstream segment. For example, France's TotalEnergies reported a 76% year-on-year increase in its refining business's profits, thanks to favorable market conditions. Experts believe that high margins will remain at least until the end of the year, stimulating refineries to increase their capacity utilization after completing autumn maintenance.
Pipeline accident in the US. Infrastructure issues are also impacting the refined products market. In November, a leak occurred on one of the largest product pipelines in the US – the Olympic Pipeline system, which delivers gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Washington State to neighboring Oregon. The leak was discovered on November 11 near Everett, Washington, after which the operator (BP) had to halt pumping. State authorities declared a state of emergency as the shutdown disrupted the supply of jet fuel to Seattle International Airport. By the end of the week, emergency crews had excavated over 30 meters of pipe in search of the damage, but the source of the leak was not immediately identified. One of the two pipeline threads has been partially restarted, but overall the system is not operating at full capacity. This incident highlights the vulnerability of fuel infrastructure: regional fuel stocks had to be replenished through road transport and emergency supply, leading to a temporary spike in local jet fuel and gasoline prices. The pipeline is expected to be fully operational only after repairs and inspections have been conducted.
Gas Market and Europe's Energy Security
The European gas market is entering the winter season relatively stable, but energy security concerns remain at the forefront. Thanks to active liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases and consumption savings over the past months, gas storage facilities in EU countries are nearing record levels as winter begins. This alleviates the risks of sharp price spikes in case of cold weather. Meanwhile, European countries continue to diversify their gas sources, reducing dependence on Russian supplies:
- New LNG terminals in Germany: The largest EU economy is boosting its LNG reception capabilities. The fifth floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) is set to launch in 2026 at the Elbe estuary (Stade port). Currently, LNG constitutes about 11% of all gas imports to Germany over three quarters of 2025. The construction of permanent terminals is progressing rapidly – Berlin aims to fully replace the pipeline gas lost from Russia in 2022–2023.
- Balkan gas pipeline with US support: In Southeastern Europe, a long-discussed alternative gas pipeline project is starting. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the assistance of the USA, has revived plans for a connecting pipe to Croatia – the so-called “Southern Interconnector.” Gas will flow from the Croatian LNG terminal on Krk Island, enabling Bosnia to reduce its dependence on Russian gas now flowing through the “Turkish Stream.” American partners have expressed their willingness to be leading investors in the project. Previously, internal political disagreements in B&H had hampered implementation, but now the project has received new backing and momentum.
- Ukraine increases imports: Amid escalating conflict with Russia, Ukraine faces significant challenges in the gas sector. Due to shelling of infrastructure in recent months, the country has lost up to half of its own gas production. To get through the winter, Kyiv is sharply increasing fuel purchases from neighboring countries. In November, the trans-Balkan supply route was reactivated – about 2.3 million cubic meters of gas per day are being imported from Greece (where there is an LNG terminal) via Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine is consistently receiving gas from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. These measures help compensate for the deficit arising from attacks and maintain energy supply to Ukrainian consumers during the winter period.
Energy security and policy. In several European countries, attention to controlling critical energy infrastructure has intensified. For example, the Italian government has expressed concern about the involvement of Chinese investors in the capital of companies owning national electricity grids and gas pipelines. Officials state that strategic networks must remain under reliable domestic control – measures are being discussed to limit the share of foreign shareholders in such assets. This step fits into the broader EU trend of enhancing energy independence and protecting infrastructure from geopolitical risks.
Price situation. Thanks to high reserves and source diversification, spot gas prices in Europe remain relatively moderate for the season. Regulators in various countries continue to protect consumers: in the UK, from December, the price cap for households will be raised slightly – by only 0.2% – reflecting the stability of wholesale prices. However, electricity and heating bills remain above pre-crisis levels, and governments are having to balance market prices with support measures for the population.
Electricity Generation and Coal: Contradictory Trends
In the global electricity generation sector, two opposing trends are evident: the rise of “green” energy sources and the simultaneous increase in coal use to meet demand. This is particularly evident in China and in several developing Asian countries:
Record electricity generation in China. In the PRC, demand for electricity is rapidly increasing – October 2025 marked a historical peak in generation for the month (over 800 billion kWh, +7.9% year-on-year). Meanwhile, output from thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) increased by more than 7%, compensating for a seasonal decline in generation from wind and solar stations. Despite efforts to develop renewable energy sources, about 70% of electricity in China is still generated from coal, so rising consumption inevitably leads to increased coal-burning.
Coal shortage and rising prices. Paradoxically, while coal use in China is hitting records, coal production itself in the PRC has somewhat declined. This is due to restrictions imposed by Beijing on the operation of mines (safety measures and curbs on excess capacity). Consequently, according to official data, coal production in October was 2.3% lower than the previous year. The supply reduction in the domestic market has led to rising prices: the benchmark price of thermal coal at the largest port, Qinhuangdao, has risen to 835 yuan per ton (approximately $117), which is 37% higher than the summer’s low. The deficit is also being met through imports – China is increasing coal purchases from Indonesia and Australia, supporting high demand in the global market.
Global coal record. According to the IEA, world coal production in 2025 is expected to reach a new record – about 9.2 billion tons. The main contributors to this increase are China and India, where economic growth still heavily relies on coal power. International experts express concern: the persistently high levels of coal combustion hinder the achievement of climate goals. Nonetheless, in the short term, many countries are forced to balance environmental commitments with the need for reliable energy supply.
Energy system under war pressure. Meanwhile in Europe, targeted attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure remain an issue. According to the operator “Ukrenergo,” as of the morning of November 23, over 400,000 consumers were without electricity, particularly in eastern regions that were subjected to overnight shelling. Repair teams are working around the clock to connect backup schemes and restore transmission lines, but each new damage complicates the peak load through the fall and winter. Ukraine's electricity system is integrated with ENTSO-E in Europe, allowing for emergency electricity imports in case of shortages, but the situation remains extremely tense. International partners are providing equipment and funding to support the Ukrainian energy grid.
Renewable Energy: Projects and Achievements
The renewable energy (RE) sector continues to develop steadily worldwide, demonstrating new records and initiatives:
- Pakistan transitions to solar energy. The country is preparing for an important milestone: according to government statements, by 2026, electricity generated from rooftop solar panels will exceed daytime consumption in several major industrial zones. This will mark the first such occurrence in Pakistan's history. The active development of solar generation is part of a strategy to reduce dependence on expensive imported fuels. The installation of solar modules on factory and enterprise rooftops is subsidized by the government and attracts foreign investors. It is expected that excess daytime generation will be used for charging energy storage and feeding into the general grid, which will improve the situation with electricity supply during evening peak loads.
- New offshore wind project in Europe. The consortium Ocean Winds (a joint venture of Portugal's EDP and France's Engie) has won rights to construct a large floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea (southwest coast of the UK). The planned capacity is several hundred MW, enough to supply “green” electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. This project highlights the growing interest in floating turbines, which can be installed at significant depths, tapping into new waters. The UK and EU countries are actively holding auctions for offshore wind farms to meet targets for increasing the share of renewables in the energy balance.
- Investment in grid infrastructure. German conglomerate Siemens Energy has announced plans to invest €2.1 billion (approximately $2.3 billion) in building facilities for electrical grid equipment by 2028. The projects will cover several countries and aim to address “bottlenecks” in the grid, which needs modernization to integrate renewable sources. Against the backdrop of ongoing crises in the wind energy sector, Siemens Energy is betting on a more reliable business – transmission and distribution of energy. The expansion of production capacities for transformers, switching equipment, and power electronics is supported by EU governments, as improving electricity grids is recognized as critical for the success of the Energy Transition.
- Corporations procure green energy. The trend of direct purchasing agreements for renewable energy between energy companies and large businesses continues. For instance, French TotalEnergies has signed an agreement with Google to supply electricity from new solar and wind farms to Google’s data centers in Ohio (USA). This long-term deal will help the tech giant move closer to its goal of using 100% renewable energy, while the energy company can guarantee the sales of its renewable project output. Such corporate PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) are becoming a significant component of the market, driving the construction of new renewable energy facilities globally.
Corporate News and Investments in the Fuel and Energy Sector
Several significant events have occurred in the corporate segment of the fuel and energy sector, reflecting the industry's restructuring to meet new realities:
- ExxonMobil pauses hydrogen project. The American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has taken a pause in implementing one of its most ambitious projects for producing “blue” hydrogen. The planned large hydrogen plant (most likely in Texas) has been postponed due to insufficient demand from potential buyers. According to Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods, customers are not ready to purchase substantial volumes of hydrogen at economically viable prices. This situation reflects a broader trend: the transition of traditional oil and gas companies to low-carbon technologies is slower than expected, as many such projects do not yet yield quick profits. Analysts note that ExxonMobil and other majors are revising their timelines for achieving emission reduction goals, focusing more on profitable areas – oil and gas production – amid the current pricing environment.
- Mining giant targets copper. In the realm of resource megadeals, a new potential consolidation process is underway. Australian firm BHP Group has made a renewed offer to acquire British Anglo American. Anglo recently agreed to merge with Canadian Teck Resources to jointly concentrate on copper production – a metal highly sought after in the energy transition era (for electric vehicles, cables, renewable energy). Now, BHP, already a leader in copper, aims to create an unprecedentedly large copper mining company capable of dominating the market. Anglo American's management is currently refraining from comments, and the details of the discussions remain undisclosed. If the deal goes through, it will reshuffle the balances in the mining industry and give BHP control over strategic copper reserves in South Africa, South America, and other regions.
- US invests $100 billion in critical resources. The American government’s Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) has announced an unprecedented financing program aimed at providing sustainable supplies of critically vital raw materials for the US and its allies. This involves allocating up to $100 billion in investments for projects related to the extraction and processing of rare earth metals, lithium, nickel, uranium, as well as the development of liquefied gas production capacities and components for nuclear energy. The first package of deals has already been formed: among them is insurance of $4 billion for US LNG exports to Egypt and a $1.25 billion loan for developing a large copper-gold deposit Reko Diq in Pakistan. The EXIM initiative aligns with the US administration's policy of strengthening “energy dominance” and reducing dependence on China for high-tech and energy sector raw material supplies. Given Congress's approval of the bank's funding, active US participation in resource projects worldwide can be expected in the coming years.
- Hungary's nuclear project receives exemption. In the context of sanctions policy, a noteworthy piece of news has emerged from Europe: the US Department of the Treasury has issued a special license allowing certain companies to conduct transactions related to the construction of the new nuclear power plant “Paks-2” in Hungary. This project is being executed with the participation of the Russian state corporation Rosatom, and earlier sanctions had created uncertainty regarding its financing. A reprieve has now been granted, likely at the request of Budapest and to support the energy security of a NATO ally. The license pertains to transactions related to non-nuclear aspects of the construction and reflects a pragmatic approach – the sanctions regime remains strict, but targeted relaxations may occur if they serve the interests of energy stability for European partners.
COP30 Climate Summit: Compromise Without Abandoning Oil and Gas
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded in the Brazilian city of Belém, with final agreements reflecting the complexity of international negotiations in the energy sector. The final document of the summit was adopted with significant difficulty and became a compromise between a group of developed countries advocating for more decisive actions and a bloc of fuel-exporting states and developing economies:
Financial support for vulnerable countries. One of COP30's main achievements was the promise to triple climate financing for developing countries by 2035. Wealthy countries are willing to increase assistance for projects aimed at climate adaptation – building protective infrastructure, transitioning to renewable energy, and combating desertification and flooding. This was a key demand from Global South states, which highlighted their disproportionate vulnerability to climate risks. Although the European Union criticized the initial draft of the agreement as “insufficiently ambitious,” it ultimately refrained from blocking its adoption precisely to launch the mechanism to support the poorest countries. According to one of the EU negotiators, the agreement is "not perfect, but will direct much-needed funding to the most vulnerable."
Lack of consensus on fossil fuels. The most contentious point in the negotiations was the fate of oil, gas, and coal. Preliminary drafts sought to include plans for a “gradual phase-out of fossil fuels,” but the final text lacks such a formulation. The countries comprising the so-called “Arab Group,” as well as several other oil and gas producers, categorically opposed any mention of direct reductions in fossil fuel use. They insisted it was much more important to discuss carbon capture technologies and the “clean” use of oil and gas rather than curtailing production. As a result of the compromise, the topic of the energy transition is vaguely outlined, without quantitative commitments to reduce the share of oil and coal. This concession disappointed several Latin American countries (Colombia, Uruguay, and Panama openly called for stricter wording) and environmental organizations, but was necessary for consensus.
Response and prospects. The COP30 compromise agreement received mixed reviews. On one hand, it has allowed for the preservation of the multilateral climate process and ensured a flow of funds into adaptation and “green” technology funds. On the other, the lack of specifics regarding the phasing out of hydrocarbons has been described by experts as a missed opportunity to expedite the implementation of the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who previously called for a “roadmap” for the phasedout of coal, oil, and gas, expressed cautious optimism, noting that dialogue continues and key decisions are still ahead. In the meantime, the venue for the next conference has already been decided: COP31 in 2026 will be hosted by Turkey. Ankara has reached an agreement with Australia to co-organize the summit, which will take place on Turkish territory. The world will be closely watching whether the next meeting can make bolder strides towards decarbonizing the global economy.
Prepared for investors and professionals in the fuel and energy market. Stay tuned for updates to keep abreast of the latest developments in the oil, gas, and energy sector worldwide.
