Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Wednesday, December 31, 2025: China's PMI, U.S. Data, Trade Conditions on Global Exchanges, and Investor Benchmarks in the Pre-New Year Calm.
Wednesday, December 31, marks a day of reduced liquidity in global markets: some exchanges are closed for the holidays, while others are operating on a shortened schedule. For investors from the CIS, this shift in focus moves away from intraday trading to risk management and macroeconomic signal evaluation as they approach the new year. On such days, even standard economic events can trigger disproportionate movements in individual instruments due to thin markets and wider spreads. The key highlights include China's PMI and U.S. data, as well as the trading regime on Russian exchanges, where the Moscow Exchange is closed, but trading continues on the SPB Exchange.
Trading Regime: Global Markets and CIS Exchanges
- Europe: Some continental exchanges are closed; several markets may have shortened trading days. For Euronext exchanges, December 31 is designated as a half trading day for certain markets in the group.
- Asia: A considerable portion of regional markets is entering holiday mode; liquidity is generally lower than the average for the end of the month.
- Russia: The Moscow Exchange is not conducting trading on December 31. For CIS investors who need to maintain trading access, the key platform remains the SPB Exchange, where trading is ongoing.
- U.S.A: The stock market operates as usual, while the bond market closes earlier than standard hours.
A practical takeaway for investors: As the European and U.S. sessions approach their close, volatility may "spike" on specific news, but confirming the strength of these movements may be challenging due to low volumes. The priority should be maintaining discipline on limits, selecting instruments with high liquidity, and checking with brokers regarding settlement and clearing schedules.
China: Services PMI and Composite PMI (04:30 MSK)
Early in the morning, China's service sector PMI and composite PMI indicators for December will be released. For global markets, this serves as a quick marker of whether the momentum of domestic demand persists and how robustly the service sector is recovering. For commodity assets and currencies in emerging markets, China's PMI holds significant importance: strong readings support demand expectations for industrial metals and energy resources, while weak readings heighten caution and increase risk premiums.
- How to Read the Release: A level above 50 typically indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction in activity.
- What’s Important Inside: Components of new orders, employment, and prices (inflation signals in supply chains).
- Market Reaction: Given the thin liquidity, sharp movements may occur in commodity futures and currency pairs; however, trend confirmation may only arise after U.S. markets open.
U.S.A: Unemployment Claims (16:30 MSK)
In the afternoon, the focus shifts to U.S. data — initial unemployment claims. This metric is an important operational indicator of the labor market and the "temperature" of the economy. For investors, it forms part of the overall picture: the labor market impacts consumption trends, corporate earnings, and rate expectations.
- Positive Scenario: A moderate level of claims without significant spikes signals employment stability.
- Negative Scenario: A noticeable rise in claims could enhance defensive sentiments and drive demand for quality (short-term bonds, dollar-denominated assets, and low-volatility sectors).
- Strategy: In the pre-New Year session, the reaction may be disproportionate; when trading through the SPB Exchange, it makes sense to pre-determine entry/exit levels and utilize limit orders.
U.S.A: Chicago PMI (Estimate 17:45 MSK)
Another important indicator from the U.S. is the Chicago PMI for December. This helps assess manufacturing activity and business expectations in the industrial region. Together with unemployment claims, the indicator forms a "quick" macro set that market participants use to finely tune their expectations for early January.
- Volatility Factor: If the release occurs in a thin market, the movements in index futures and the dollar could be sharp but short-lived.
- Interpretation: An increase in the indicator strengthens the case for resilient business activity; a weak reading raises the risk of a "soft landing."
Corporate Reports: Global Agenda for December 31
From a corporate reports perspective, the day is generally "empty" for major issuers: companies from the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and major Russian public companies are not concentrating their releases on December 31. The main financial results publishing is scheduled for the working weeks of January and February, when the market returns to normal liquidity.
However, several small-cap issuers in the U.S. have reports planned. While not systemic for the broader market, they may hold particular interest for risk-oriented strategies:
- Coffee Holding (JVA): Focus on margin dynamics in the context of commodity prices, working capital, and inventory levels.
- Maison Solutions (MSS): Comparable sales, cost inflation, and network efficiency (operating margin) are of interest.
- 1933 Industries (TGIFF/TGIF): Key aspects include cash flow, debt load, and revenue stability in the regulated sector.
- Formation Minerals (FOMI): Investors should pay attention to asset structure, sources of financing, and any indications of achieving sustainable income.
- 4Less Group (FLES): Micro-cap with heightened liquidity risks; priority lies in assessing corporate events and transparency of reporting.
For CIS investors, the practical recommendation is straightforward: one should only consider such reports if they understand the specifics of illiquid securities and have predefined risk limits. During the pre-New Year trading session, the risk of "slippage" and price gaps is significantly elevated.
Assets and Themes of the Day: Currencies, Rates, Commodities
In the context of shortened trading on some platforms, the market often shifts focus to "larger" macro narratives. Therefore, both China’s PMI and U.S. data set the tone for the dollar, yields, and commodity assets. For investors' portfolios, three practical observations are important:
- Currencies: In the event of surprises in U.S. data, the dollar may react the quickest, especially against currencies with low liquidity during the holidays.
- Rates: The early closure of the U.S. bond market amplifies the effects of thin liquidity—movements may occur in "jumps."
- Commodities: A weaker-than-expected China PMI often pressures cyclical assets, while a stronger-than-expected reading supports risk appetite and demand for commodity stories.
Risk Management in Pre-New Year Trading
For both retail and professional investors, the key task of the day becomes protecting against inefficient execution and "random" volatility. During the pre-New Year trading session, it is rational to:
- Use limit orders instead of market orders;
- Reduce the position size in instruments with weak order depth;
- Avoid "impulse" trades immediately after data releases—wait for price stabilization;
- Account for the specifics of settlement and clearing, especially when trading through the SPB Exchange and in foreign instruments;
- Maintain focus on portfolio goals: the end of the year is not the best time for aggressively increasing risk without a clear idea.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
December 31 is a day when global markets largely adhere to a holiday schedule, thus increasing the price of errors. Investors should remain focused on economic events—specifically China’s PMI in the morning and the block of U.S. data in the afternoon. On the corporate reports side, no significant releases from major companies are expected; activity will be concentrated in select small U.S. issuers where liquidity and volatility risks are above average.
The practical focus for CIS investors: (1) pre-determine scenarios for reacting to macro data, (2) employ conservative execution and limit orders, (3) avoid overloading the portfolio with risk in a thin market, and (4) prepare a watchlist for January when liquidity returns and a full agenda for the new year commences.
