Recent News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, January 12, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Key Global Energy Projects. Analytical Overview for Investors and Market Participants.
The current events in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 12, 2026, draw the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of oversupply and geopolitical shifts. The new year has begun with an unprecedented move by the U.S. concerning Venezuela—the detention of President Nicolás Maduro—that may reshape oil supply routes. However, the demand for energy resources remains sluggish, heightening fears of market oversaturation.
The global oil market continues to exhibit declining prices under pressure from surplus supply: total production has exceeded demand, with a projected surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day expected in the early months of 2026. Brent prices post-holidays are maintaining around $60 per barrel, approximately 15% lower than the levels at the start of last year, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and geopolitical risks. The European gas market confidently navigates mid-winter: underground gas storage in the EU is over 60% full, with mild weather in December and record liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries keeping prices at relatively low levels (around €28–30 per MWh, or $9–10 per MMBtu). At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating, with many countries reporting record electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) in 2025, although traditional resources are still needed to ensure the reliability of energy systems.
In Russia, following last year's surge in fuel prices, the authorities are continuing manual regulation of the domestic oil products market—extended export restrictions and other measures are in place to normalize the situation. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Venezuelan Factor Pressure Prices
Global oil prices have remained under downward pressure at the beginning of 2026 due to fundamental factors. After several months of gradual decline, quotations have accelerated their drop amid expectations of abundant supply. Total oil production notably increased over the past year: OPEC countries ramped up exports, and those outside the cartel saw even more significant increases. As a result, the market entered 2026 with a surplus—estimates suggest a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, with demand growth slowing (around +1% per year versus the usual ~1.5%). Against this backdrop, the benchmark Brent has dipped to around $60 per barrel, while American WTI has fallen to approximately $57, reflecting a decrease of 15–20% from levels a year ago.
Additional pressure on the market arises from the situation in Venezuela. The unexpected detention of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. in early January has opened the prospect of easing the American oil embargo against Caracas. Washington has already expressed its readiness to engage companies to revive Venezuela's oil sector and announced a deal for the supply of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., effectively redirecting a portion of exports previously destined for China. These developments have heightened expectations of increased global supply and triggered further price drops. Simultaneously, the oil surplus has prompted OPEC+ countries to consider their next steps: despite a recent agreement to maintain current production quotas, key alliance members signal a willingness to reinstate cuts if prices fall below a comfortable level. No new official agreements have been announced yet; the market is closely monitoring the rhetoric of Saudi Arabia and its partners concerning potential price stabilization.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe Keep Prices Under Control
In the gas market, the situation in Europe remains a focal point, as the region experiences winter with much more tranquility than during the peak energy crisis of 2022–2023. EU countries entered 2026 with underground gas storage filled to over 60%, significantly above historical averages for mid-winter. Mild weather in December and record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) helped reduce withdrawals from storage. As of early January, gas prices in Europe remain at relatively low levels: the Dutch TTF index trades around €28–30 per MWh (about $9–10 per MMBtu). Although prices have slightly risen in recent weeks due to colder weather and seasonal demand spikes, they are still significantly lower than the peak levels observed during the 2022–2023 crisis.
European consumers compensated for nearly complete cessation of pipeline gas supplies from Russia by unprecedentedly increasing LNG purchases. For the year 2025, LNG imports to Europe rose by approximately 25% compared to 2024, reaching a record ~127 million tons, with the main additional volumes coming from the U.S., Qatar, and African countries. The commissioning of new floating terminals for receiving LNG in Germany and other EU states has expanded capacity and enhanced the region's energy security. Projections indicate that the EU will complete the current heating season with significant reserves (around 35–40% of storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the stability of the gas market. In the Asian market, LNG prices remain slightly above European levels, with the Asian JKM index exceeding $10 per MMBtu—but overall, the global gas market is in a state of relative equilibrium thanks to increased supply and moderate demand.
Geopolitics: Venezuela Under U.S. Control, Disputes Within OPEC+, and New Sanction Risks
Geopolitical factors are once again significantly impacting the energy sector. Two major events have taken center stage. First, Venezuela is embroiled in a severe political crisis: the U.S. announced on January 3rd the detention of President Nicolás Maduro and intends to take control of the country until a transitional government is formed. President Trump stated his intention to engage American oil companies to restore Venezuela's dilapidated oil infrastructure and increase production. Investors have reacted to these steps without panic: while Venezuela possesses the world's largest oil reserves, its current output is minimal, and even with investment influx, any increase in supply will take years. Second, within OPEC+, disagreements have surfaced: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have entered into sharp conflict (linked to events in Yemen), resulting in the most significant rift among allies in recent decades. However, the January meeting of eight key OPEC+ countries proceeded without drama—participants unanimously supported maintaining current production quotas, demonstrating a commitment to a common strategy for market stability.
China, the main recipient of Venezuelan oil, has firmly condemned U.S. actions, calling them “blatant interference” in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Beijing has signaled its intention to protect its energy interests: China is likely to intensify its oil purchases from Russia and Iran or take other measures to compensate for a potential loss of Venezuelan volumes. This renewed escalation between major powers amplifies geopolitical risks for the market: investors fear that competition for resources will intensify, and political moves will introduce additional volatility into prices.
Meanwhile, the Western and Russian sanctions standoff in energy continues with little change. At the end of 2025, Moscow extended the ban on oil and petroleum product supplies to buyers adhering to the G7/EU price cap until June 30, 2026, reaffirming its position of not recognizing imposed restrictions. European sanctions against the Russian FEC remain in effect, and the export routes for Russian energy resources have been fully redirected to Asian, Middle Eastern, and African markets. There has been no significant easing of sanctions or breakthroughs in dialogue between Russia and Western countries—globally, the market must operate within a new paradigm split by sanction barriers.
In Washington, discussions are underway about new radical measures of pressure: a bill proposing to impose a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil. Such steps aim to further reduce Moscow's oil revenues and effectively punish key importers of its crude (primarily India and China), which threatens to further escalate the sanctions confrontation.
Additional uncertainty arises from the situation in Iran. Since late last year, large-scale anti-government protests have continued there—the most significant challenge to the regime in recent years. The Trump administration has threatened a tough response if Iranian authorities use force against demonstrators; in response, the Tehran leadership shows unwavering resolve, limiting communication with the outside world. Currently, these events do not have a direct impact on Iran's oil export volumes; however, the risk of escalation in the region raises nervousness in the market—participants are factoring in the potential for supply disruptions if the crisis deepens.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Import and Domestic Production
- India: Facing Western pressure due to its cooperation with Russia (the U.S. has doubled tariffs on Indian exports since August 2025 to 50%), New Delhi firmly states it has no intention of reducing imports of Russian oil and gas at the expense of its energy security. Russian suppliers are forced to offer significant discounts on Urals oil (about $5 off the Brent price), allowing India to continue purchasing crude at preferential prices and even increasing imports of petroleum products from Russia to meet growing demand. Simultaneously, the country aims to reduce its long-term dependence on imports: in 2025, a national program for deep-water oil and gas exploration was launched, with the state company ONGC beginning drilling in the Andaman Sea. By the end of the year, the first natural gas field in this region was announced, instilling hopes for the gradual strengthening of India’s resource base. Additionally, despite external pressure, India and Russia expanded settlements in national currencies and joint projects in the oil and gas sector in 2025, demonstrating their commitment to partnership.
- China: Asia’s largest economy is also increasing energy resource purchases while simultaneously increasing its own production. Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has taken advantage of the situation to import oil and LNG from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at reduced prices, remaining the leading buyer of Russian energy resources. According to Chinese customs, in 2024 the country imported about 212.8 million tons of crude oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas—1.8% and 6.2% more than the previous year, respectively. In 2025, imports continued to grow, albeit at more moderate rates due to the high base. Simultaneously, the Chinese government is encouraging domestic oil and gas production growth: from January to November 2025, national companies extracted approximately 1.5% more oil than during the same period the previous year and increased natural gas production by almost 6%. However, these increases only partially cover consumption growth—the Chinese economy still relies on imports for about 70% of its oil and around 40% of its gas. The government is investing substantial funds in field development and enhanced oil recovery technologies, but given the huge scale of demand, China’s dependence on external supplies will remain significant. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will maintain a key role in global raw material markets, balancing import assurance with the development of their resource bases.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in RES While Maintaining the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is noticeably accelerating. In 2025, many countries set new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (solar, wind, etc.). Europe, for the first time in a year, generated more electricity from solar and wind power plants than from coal and gas-fired power plants, solidifying the trend toward a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels. In the U.S., the share of renewable energy also reached a historical maximum—over 30% of generation—with the total output of wind and solar power exceeding production at coal plants for the first time. China, remaining the world leader in installed RES capacity, annually adds dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind farms, constantly breaking records in “green” generation.
According to estimates from the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3.3 trillion, with more than half of these funds directed toward RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In 2026, investments in clean energy may grow even further amid government support programs. For example, the U.S. plans to install approximately 35 GW of new solar power plants within the year—a record figure, constituting nearly half of all expected new generating capacity. Analysts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable energy sources may emerge as the leading sources of electricity generation globally, decisively surpassing coal.
Meanwhile, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to maintain stability. The growing share of solar and wind creates challenges for grid balancing during hours when RES do not generate sufficient power. Gas and even coal-fired power plants are still used to meet peak demand and reserve capacity. For instance, last winter in certain regions of Europe, there was a need to temporarily increase output at coal-fired power plants during windless cold weather—despite the environmental costs. Many countries’ governments are actively investing in energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage) and “smart” grids capable of flexibly managing loads. These measures are designed to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Thus, while the energy transition reaches new heights, it requires a delicate balance between “green” technologies and traditional resources: renewable generation is breaking records, but classic power plants remain critically important for uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: High Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite accelerated decarbonization efforts, the global coal market maintains significant consumption volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal remains high, particularly in Asia-Pacific countries, where economic growth and electricity needs sustain its intensive use. China—the world's largest coal consumer and producer—burned coal at almost record levels in 2025. The volume of coal mined in Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons per year, covering a lion's share of domestic needs, but is barely sufficient during peak load periods (e.g., hot summers when air conditioning usage surges). India, possessing extensive coal reserves, is also increasing its usage: over 70% of electricity in the country is still generated at coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside economic growth. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to commission new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing demands of the population and industry.
Global coal mining and trading have adapted to sustained high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have ramped up coal mining and exports in recent years, allowing prices to remain relatively stable. Following price peaks in 2022, prices for energy coal have decreased to more familiar levels and have recently fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, the price of energy coal at the European ARA hub is currently around $100 per ton, whereas two years ago it exceeded $300. Overall, the supply-demand balance appears to be stable: consumers receive guaranteed fuel while producers benefit from stable sales at profitable prices. Although many countries announce phased plans to phase out coal for climate goals, this fuel will remain indispensable for providing electricity to a significant portion of the population over the next 5-10 years. Experts believe that coal generation, especially in Asia, will continue to play a substantial role, despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to serve as a pillar of global energy.
The Russian Fuel Market: Government Regulation Stabilizes Fuel Prices
In the Russian domestic fuel market, emergency measures aimed at normalizing prices following last year’s fuel crisis remain in effect.
- Extension of the fuel export ban: The full ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, imposed back in August 2025, has been repeatedly extended and remains in effect (at least until the end of February 2026) for all producers. This measure channels additional volumes—hundreds of thousands of tons of gasoline and diesel each month—that previously went to export back to the domestic market.
- Partial resumption of supplies for large refineries: As the situation stabilizes, the restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October, some large refineries have been allowed limited export shipments of fuel under government supervision. However, the embargo on exports remains for independent traders, oil depots, and smaller refineries to prevent the leakage of scarce resources abroad.
- Control of distribution within the country: The government has intensified oversight of petroleum product movement in the domestic market. Oil companies are required to prioritize meeting domestic consumer needs and to avoid practices of stock exchange reselling that previously inflated prices. Relevant authorities (Ministry of Energy, Federal Antimonopoly Service in collaboration with the St. Petersburg Exchange) are developing long-term measures—such as a direct contracting system between refineries and gas station networks bypassing exchange platforms—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth out price fluctuations.
- Subsidies and price dampers: The state continues to provide financial support to the industry. Budgetary subsidies and a reverse excise mechanism (“damper”) continue to compensate oil refiners for part of the lost export revenues. This incentivizes refineries to direct a larger volume of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market without incurring losses due to lower internal prices.
The combination of these steps has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been kept under control. Despite record exchange prices in the summer of 2025, retail prices at gas stations have only risen by about 5% over the year (within inflation limits). Gas stations are adequately supplied with fuel, and the measures taken are gradually cooling down the wholesale market.
The government states it will continue to act preemptively: if necessary, restrictions on the export of petroleum products will be extended into 2026, and in the event of localized disruptions, resources from state reserves will be swiftly directed to problematic regions. The situation is being monitored at the highest level—authorities are ready to implement new mechanisms to ensure stable fuel supply to the country and keep prices within acceptable ranges for consumers. At the same time, representatives of the Ministry of Energy admit that if stability is maintained, restrictions may be gradually lifted in the second half of 2026, but the experience of recent months has shown that the state will swiftly intervene to protect the domestic market when needed.
