Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News as of February 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Refineries. Key Developments in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Industry Participants.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of February 1, 2026, draw the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and mixed signals. Geopolitical tensions are once again escalating: the U.S. is intensifying its sanctions pressure in the energy sector, and the risk of conflict in the Middle East is increasing, creating uncertainty and driving oil prices to multi-month highs. At the same time, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, having experienced a significant decline in 2025, have partially regained lost ground but remain at moderate levels by historical standards — a supply surplus persists amidst subdued demand, and the OPEC+ alliance is keeping production in check. The European gas market is navigating the winter season confidently: record gas storage levels and mild weather in January are keeping prices at low levels, providing comfort to consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to gain momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following an autumn spike in fuel prices, authorities are maintaining strict measures to stabilize the domestic petroleum market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Trigger Price Rise
Global oil prices saw a notable increase last week, reaching the highest levels in the past six months. However, overall prices remain relatively restrained due to fundamental market factors. The North Sea Brent blend has stabilized around $70–72 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $64–66. Current levels are still 10–15% lower than a year ago and significantly below the peak values experienced during the energy crisis of 2022-2023.
- OPEC+ Supply: Major oil exporters are maintaining discipline in their supplies. In 2025, the OPEC+ alliance gradually increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day (from April to December) as previous restrictions were eased, leading to a surplus formation. However, at the beginning of 2026, considering the seasonally low winter demand, OPEC+ countries paused further increases. At their January meeting, participants unanimously decided to maintain current production restrictions at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026 to avoid a new market oversupply. The alliance has signaled its readiness to cut production again if necessary. This preventive approach keeps oil prices within a narrow range and reduces volatility.
- Demand Slowdown: Global oil consumption growth has substantially weakened. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand increased by only ~0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to +2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC estimates the demand increase for 2025 to be about +1.2 million b/d. The reasons include a slowing global economy and the effect of the previous period of high prices, which stimulated energy conservation. Additionally, demand suppression was contributed by China, where industrial production and fuel consumption growth in the second half of 2025 fell below expectations (industrial production growth dropped to its lowest rate in 15 months).
- Geopolitical Factors: The oil market is simultaneously influenced by opposing political forces. On one hand, the escalation of sanctions has intensified restrictions on energy resource trading. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the U.S. imposed the strictest sanctions in years against the Russian oil and gas sector (including a ban on transactions with several major companies), forcing some Asian buyers to reduce oil imports from Russia. Additionally, Washington has effectively announced the possibility of imposing high tariffs (up to 500%) on imports into the US from countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas — this initiative aims to deprive Moscow of export revenues that finance the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the risks of disruptions in the Middle East have increased: reports emerged in January that the U.S. is considering a military strike against Iran regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Against this backdrop, investors are pricing in increased risk premiums for oil. On the other hand, periodic signals of a possible ceasefire in Eastern Europe (albeit without tangible results) create expectations that sooner or later, sanctions against Russian oil exports may be eased and the full volume of Russian oil will return to the market — this factor is exerting bearish pressure on market sentiment. For now, the cumulative influence of all factors maintains a moderate oversupply in the market, keeping oil trading in a state of slight surplus.
As a result, oil prices remain in a relatively narrow range, lacking sustained momentum for either further growth or sharp declines. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events — from OPEC+ decisions (the next ministerial meeting is scheduled for February 1, where an extension of current production policies is expected) to developments in the geopolitical situation — that could shift the risk balance for oil prices.
Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter Confidently, Prices Remain Low
In the gas market, the focus is on the smooth winter navigation for European countries. So far, the season is shaping up favorably for Europe: January has been relatively mild, allowing for moderate gas withdrawals from storage. By early February, underground gas storage facilities in the EU are approximately 60% filled, significantly above the average level for this time of year, ensuring a high level of security in the supply system.
Thanks to this, as well as stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from alternative sources, prices in the European market remain low. The benchmark TTF index fluctuates around €25–30 per MWh — several times lower than the peak values during the energy crisis two years ago. For industry and consumers, these price levels have provided considerable relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have decreased significantly compared to last winter.
The market is prepared for potential weather surprises: short-term cold spells could temporarily increase demand and prices, but there are currently no systemic risks of fuel shortages. Moreover, Europe’s strategy of diversifying gas sources and energy conservation measures has proven effective, allowing for flexible responses to challenges. On a global level, IEA forecasts suggest that global natural gas consumption could reach a new record in 2026 — primarily driven by rising demand in Asia. Nonetheless, at present, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is enough to meet needs, and the European market is entering the final phase of winter without disruptions.
International Politics: Sanctions Pressure, Middle Eastern Tensions, and Changes in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States intensified efforts to limit Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump is promoting through Congress a bill imposing extremely high tariffs — up to 500% — on imports into the U.S. from countries that "knowingly trade" with Russia in oil and gas. The aim of the U.S. side is to reduce Moscow's revenues from energy resource exports, which Washington believes finance the military conflict in Ukraine. These measures are straining external trade: China has sharply protested against external pressure on its energy policy, stating that its trade with Russia is legitimate and should not be politicized. India, for its part, is trying to navigate by reducing the share of Russian oil in its imports over the past year while negotiating with Washington regarding easing American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another high-profile event at the start of the year was the unexpected changes in Venezuela, potentially impacting the balance of power in the oil market. In early January, the U.S. conducted a military operation, resulting in Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro being ousted and taken into custody. President Trump stated Washington's readiness to support a temporary administration in the country until a new government is formed. This unprecedented move has resonated on the international stage: several countries (such as China) condemned the violation of Venezuela's sovereignty and principles of international law. However, for the oil and gas sector, the key question remains whether the regime change will lead to the return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, but due to sanctions and the economic crisis, its production has plummeted over the last decade. Experts note that even with political changes, immediate growth in exports is unlikely: the country's oil infrastructure requires substantial investment and modernization. Nonetheless, the anticipated gradual easing of sanctions could increase the availability of heavy Venezuelan oil in the global market in the long term, which may become a new factor for the balance of power within OPEC+.
Tensions in the Middle East have also escalated. In January, the U.S. imposed new sanctions against Iran, accusing Tehran of advancing its missile-nuclear program and destabilizing the region. Reports emerged that Washington is considering a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if diplomatic pressure yields no results. Iran categorically rejected the demands to limit its defensive capabilities, stating that it will not tolerate external interference. The escalation of rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran has heightened nervousness in the oil market: traders fear supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf in the event of military conflict. Although a direct confrontation has so far been avoided, the very threat of destabilization in a key oil-producing region contributes to rising prices and remains one of the main factors of uncertainty for FEC market participants.
Asia: Balancing Import and Domestic Production
Asian countries — key drivers of energy demand growth — are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the rapidly growing needs of their economies. The policies and energy strategy choices of major Asian consumers — China and India — have a significant impact on the global market:
- India: New Delhi aims to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressure. Following the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India significantly increased purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western sanctions, it slightly reduced Russia's share in its oil imports. Concurrently, the country is focusing on developing domestic resources: a large-scale program for the exploration of deep-water oil and gas fields has been launched to boost its production to meet the surging internal demand. Additionally, India is rapidly expanding renewable energy capacity (solar and wind power plants) and infrastructure for LNG imports, striving to diversify its energy balance. However, oil and gas remain the foundation of its energy supply, necessary for industry and transport, so the Indian leadership must delicately balance the benefits of importing cheap fuels against the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world's second-largest economy continues its course towards enhancing energy self-sufficiency, combining maximum boosting of traditional resources with record investments in clean energy. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, China raised its domestic oil and coal production to historic highs, aiming to reduce import dependency. Simultaneously, the share of coal in electricity generation in China has dropped to a multi-year low (~55%), as the country has brought a record volume of new solar, wind, and hydroelectric capacities online. According to analysts, in 2025, China commissioned more solar and wind power stations than the rest of the world combined, helping to curb the growth of fossil fuel combustion. Nonetheless, in absolute terms, China's appetite for energy resources remains enormous: oil imports (including from Russia) continue to play a significant role in satisfying demand, particularly in transportation and petrochemicals. Beijing is also actively concluding long-term contracts for LNG supply and increasing nuclear power generation. It is expected that in the new 15th five-year plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious targets for non-carbon energy development, while also ensuring enough reserve of traditional capacities — authorities intend to avoid energy deficits, considering the experience of rolling blackouts in the past decade.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming the irreversibility of this trend. Many countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. According to estimates from international analytical centers, global generation from wind and solar sources in 2025 for the first time surpassed electricity production at all coal power plants. This historic milestone was made possible by a sharp increase in new capacities: in 2025, global electricity generation from solar power plants grew by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, while wind-generated power increased by 7%. This was sufficient to meet the primary increase in global electricity demand and allowed for reduced fossil fuel use in several regions.
However, the rapid growth of green energy is accompanied by reliability issues in electricity supply. When demand growth exceeds the introduction of renewable capacities or when weather conditions are unfavorable (calm, drought, extreme cold), energy systems must compensate for the shortfall through traditional generation. Thus, in 2025, in the U.S., amid economic recovery, electricity generation at coal-fired power plants increased since existing renewables were insufficient to meet additional demand. In Europe, due to weak winds and low water levels in hydro resources during the summer and fall, there was a partial increase in the burning of natural gas and coal to meet energy needs.
These examples illustrate that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants continue to play a vital role as a safety net, compensating for the variability of solar and wind generation. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other advanced technologies to smooth out production fluctuations. However, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: rapid growth in renewables is occurring alongside a substantial share of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which provide stability to energy systems and cover baseload needs.
Coal: Strong Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The global coal market demonstrates how inertia can characterize global energy consumption. Despite decarbonization efforts, coal usage on the planet remains at record high levels. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, global demand for coal increased by approximately 0.5%, reaching around 8.85 billion tonnes — a historic maximum. The bulk of the growth has come from Asian economies. In China, which consumes over half of the world's coal, the relative role of coal in electricity generation, while reduced to minimum levels in recent decades, remains colossal in absolute terms. Furthermore, fearing energy shortages, Beijing authorized the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025 to prevent supply disruptions. India and Southeast Asian countries also continue to actively burn coal to satisfy rising electricity demand, as alternative sources are not developing at the same pace.
Prices for thermal coal stabilized in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (such as Australian Newcastle coal), quotations remained significantly below the 2022 peak, although still above pre-crisis levels. This encourages mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the current decade and then begin to gradually decline as climate policies strengthen and numerous new renewable capacities are brought online. However, in the short term, coal remains a crucial component of energy balances for many countries. It provides baseload generation and heat for industries, so until effective substitutes emerge, demand for coal is expected to remain robust. Thus, the struggle between environmental goals and economic realities continues to shape the fate of the coal industry: a downward trend is evident, but the "swan song" of coal is clearly not upon us just yet.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilization Through Government Efforts
In the Russian fuel market, a relative stabilization emerged by early 2026, achieved through unprecedented government intervention. Back in August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the country soared to record levels, prompting the government to respond swiftly. Strict temporary export limits on petroleum products were introduced, domestic fuel distribution was closely monitored, and financial support measures for oil refineries were expanded. These steps produced tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale prices have retreated from their peaks, and retail prices at gas stations have increased only moderately — by about 5-6% over the entire year of 2025, in line with inflation. A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel has been avoided: gas stations across the country, including in remote regions, are adequately supplied even during seasonal consumption peaks.
Russian authorities confirm their intention to continue controlling the situation. Fuel export restrictions remain in place as of early 2026 (for gasoline, they have been extended at least until the end of February), and at the first signs of a new imbalance, they may be tightened again. The government is also ready to resort to commodity interventions from state fuel reserves if necessary to smooth out price fluctuations. For participants in the FEC market, such policies mean predictability in domestic petroleum product prices, even amid external shocks — sanctions and volatility in global prices. Oil companies have had to come to terms with partial export restrictions, but overall stabilization of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that consumer and economic interests will be reliably protected from price shocks.
