Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, January 16, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, Key Events, and Trends in the Global Energy Market.
At the beginning of 2026, global oil and gas markets are showing signs of increasing supply and persistent volatility. Oil prices remain moderate despite escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, while demand for hydrocarbons is tempered by a slowdown in economic growth. Concurrently, there is rising attention on the active expansion of wind energy, solar generation, and the development of other sources of "clean" energy. Investors and participants in the energy sector are closely analyzing the balance between the oversupply of fossil fuels and the large-scale transformation of the energy landscape.
Global Oil Market
- In January 2026, exchange prices for oil are hovering in the range of approximately $60–65 per barrel for Brent (WTI around $58–60). A sharp decline in prices (-3%) over the past week was triggered by a softening of the White House's rhetoric regarding Iran: statements about potential U.S. non-intervention significantly reduced expectations for supply disruptions and eased market tensions.
- Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the oversupply continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Oil production in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America has reached record levels, shifting the balance toward excess. Experts predict average Brent prices around $55–60 in 2026, citing risks of further declines. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the average annual price for Brent is expected to be approximately $56/barrel in 2026.
- OPEC is also confirming increased demand: the January report anticipates a rise in global oil consumption in 2026 to 106.52 million barrels per day (+1.38 million b/d from the previous year). Nevertheless, at the OPEC+ meeting on January 4, quotas remained unchanged as the cartel strives to balance the market without drastic reductions.
- European regulators continue to exert pressure on supplies from Russia: as of February 1, 2026, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to $44.1 per barrel, below the current pricing for Urals (~$39). Simultaneously, the White House is actively leveraging energy sanctions: the U.S. has already sold its first batch of Venezuelan oil worth $500 million, with proceeds frozen in foreign accounts (chiefly in Qatar).
- Global refineries are reacting to the surplus: many oil refineries are reducing the throughput of excess crude, while governments are adjusting fuel policies. For instance, discussions are underway in Russia to introduce export quotas on gasoline to prevent domestic shortages. In Europe and Asia, exports of oil products are increasing, reflecting a balance between energy resources and clean energy.
Global Gas Market
- The European gas market is experiencing a new crisis due to winter cold spells. In mid-January, the spot price at the TTF hub exceeded $387 per 1,000 cubic meters—an increase of more than 11% since the beginning of the week. A deficiency in wind generation (with wind contribution dropping to ~15% of consumption compared to 20% a year prior) has intensified the demand for gas-fired power plants.
- European storage levels are at a record low: as of January 13, stock levels were only ~52% of maximum capacity. Due to a deep deficit of pipeline gas (transit from Russia through Ukraine has been halted), EU countries have ramped up LNG imports to a record 109 million tons in 2025 (+28% compared to 2024). In January 2026, around 9.5 million tons of LNG are expected (+18% year-on-year) to meet winter demands.
- Significant changes are also noted in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has increased gas imports by ~20% (to 30 million cubic meters per day) via Slovakia and Poland to offset the cessation of transit and declining domestic production. Turkey and Southeast European countries are negotiating increased supplies from Azerbaijan and the U.S. to diversify their sources.
- Meanwhile, Russia is diversifying its exports: in 2025, Gazprom made its first deliveries of 38.8 billion cubic meters of gas to China (via the Power of Siberia), surpassing total deliveries to Europe and Turkey. This reflects a shift in demand geography: Asia is increasing long-term purchases of Russian gas amid the growth of renewable energy sources (RES).
Electric Power and Renewable Sources
- Renewable energy continues to experience explosive growth. China introduced record wind and solar generation capacities in 2025—over 300 GW of new solar and 100 GW of wind power plants. This allowed clean energy generation to outpace demand growth and enabled the first-ever reductions in coal-fired power plant output (see below).
- The growth of RES occurred against the backdrop of an overall increase in electricity consumption; however, the trend is clearly tilted towards green generation. Many countries are increasing investments in solar and wind: new auctions for the construction of solar and wind power plants in Europe and Asia are being held annually with capacities in the hundreds of megawatts.
- The atomic energy vector is also noteworthy: Germany is re-evaluating past decisions and intends to bring nuclear power plants back online. Chancellor F. Merz labeled the 2022 phase-out of nuclear energy as a "strategic error" and stated plans to build new nuclear reactors to ensure the stability of the energy system.
- Overall, the share of non-carbon generation is growing. There is an acceleration in the commissioning of hydro, geothermal, and biomass capacities, alongside developments in energy storage. This enhances competition with traditional sources and creates favorable conditions for a potential decline in electricity prices.
Coal Energy and Climate
- The results of 2025 indicate a historic trend: coal generation in China and India has simultaneously decreased for the first time. In China, coal output fell by approximately 1.6%, while in India, it dropped by 3.0% compared to 2024. The last time a similar decline was recorded was in 1973.
- The drop in coal demand is tied to record growth in RES and a slowdown in economic growth. In China, rapid additions of solar and wind capacity fully offset the increase in electricity consumption, leading to the first-ever simultaneous reduction in coal generation in both major coal-producing countries.
- As a result, the global energy structure is changing: the share of coal generation is decreasing, which has a positive impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This is critically important for meeting the climate commitments of many countries and helps to restrain the rise in global electricity prices, thereby reducing energy deficit risks.
Oil Products and Refineries
- The balance in the oil products market reflects the phenomenon of fuel surplus. Many countries are experiencing high gasoline and diesel prices due to low stocks and expensive logistics in 2025. Refineries are cutting back on crude throughput, while regulators are introducing new measures; for example, Russia is considering the implementation of gasoline export quotas to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market.
- In the European Union, however, some refineries are refocusing on exporting fuel to developing countries. Oil product stocks in EU countries remain unstable amidst severe winter conditions, so there is a high likelihood of further corrections in the fuel market as the economy recovers. Robust demand in Asia supports prices for fuel oil and diesel, encouraging investments in additional storage and refining capacities.
Global Energy Policy and Deals
- The policy of sanctions and alliances continues to shape the market. The European Union has lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1/barrel, while the U.S. has stepped up pressure: the U.S. Treasury extended the license for overseas asset operations of Lukoil, effectively easing sanctions against the oil company.
- Serbia and Hungary are preparing an intergovernmental energy agreement: plans include the construction of a 113-kilometer oil pipeline from Novi Sad to Aldyo (with a capacity of 5 million tons/year) and expanding cooperation in electricity and gas supply (e.g., reserving gas capacities). This is part of regional initiatives to diversify supply sources.
- On the international stage, ties are strengthening regarding LNG and pipelines. China and Southeast Asian countries are coordinating long-term LNG contracts from the U.S. and Qatar, while Russia is advancing new gas routes (Central Asia–China, "Nord Stream 3" in the future) to serve customers in Asia and Europe.
Forecasts and Investments
- Analytical agencies point to dual perspectives on prospects. On one hand, OPEC forecasts an increase in oil demand (+1.38 million b/d in 2026), but fundamental factors indicate an oversupply in the market. According to EIA data, Brent could "drop" to approximately $56/barrel in 2026, with oversupply leading to an accumulation of global stocks.
- On the other hand, there is a growing investment influx into clean energy. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that despite a temporary slowdown in job growth, global investments in wind and solar projects will continue their record ascent in 2026. There is also increasing attention to hydrogen energy and energy storage: corporations are committing new funds to the development of storage systems and "green" hydrogen.
- Investors are reorienting their portfolios: oil and gas companies are increasing R&D expenditures in RES and energy efficiency, while Western funds are gradually reducing investments in hydrocarbons. The stock market is seeing interest in shares of “green” startups and renewable projects, which could potentially adjust the balance of supply and demand in traditional energy markets.
