Current News in the Oil and Gas Sector and Energy for Friday, November 28, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions, Fuel Market, Renewable Energy, Coal, Overview of Key Events for Investors.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of November 28, 2025, are unfolding amidst contradictory signals, capturing the attention of investors and participants in the energy sector. Diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts instill cautious optimism about reducing geopolitical tensions: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that may alleviate sanctions pressure in the future. At the same time, Western countries maintain a tough sanctions regime, sustaining a challenging environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
World oil prices continue to remain relatively low due to an oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent benchmark hovers around $61–62 per barrel, while American WTI stands at approximately $57, remaining close to two-year lows and significantly below levels from last year. The European gas market is entering winter in a relatively balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is approximately 75–80% full by the end of November. These reserves provide a solid buffer of resilience, and gas exchange quotes remain at comparatively low levels. However, weather-related uncertainty persists: a sharp drop in temperatures could lead to a surge in price volatility as the season progresses.
At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating—many countries are setting records for electricity production from renewable sources (RES), although traditional resources remain essential for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, even though oil, gas, and coal still underpin global energy supply. In Russia, after the recent autumn fuel crisis, government emergency measures have stabilized the domestic oil products market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have turned downward, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity segments of the energy sector as of today.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices at Minimums
The global oil market is showing weak price dynamics influenced by fundamental factors of oversupply and declining demand. A barrel of Brent trades within a narrow range of about $61–62, while WTI hovers around $57, approximately 15% lower than a year ago and close to multi-year lows.
- OPEC+ Production Increase. The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for the participants of the agreement will rise by another 137,000 barrels per day. While further quota increases are postponed at least until spring 2026 due to concerns about market oversaturation, the current supply growth is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Slowdown in Demand. The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly slowed. The IEA estimates the increase in demand for 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts are now more restrained, at around +1.2 million barrels per day. The weakening global economy and the effects of previous price spikes are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
- Geopolitical Factors. Signals of a potential peace plan for Ukraine have temporarily reduced some of the geopolitical premium in prices. However, there are currently no real agreements, and the sanctions regime remains, leading to no sustainable calming of the market. Traders are still reacting nervously to news: without real progress, any peace initiatives offer only temporary effects.
- U.S. Shale Production. Relatively low prices are beginning to restrain the activity of American shale companies. The number of drilling rigs in key basins is decreasing as prices have dropped to ~$60 per barrel, making new drilling less profitable. If this price environment persists, the growth in supply from the U.S. may slow significantly.
The cumulative impact of these factors is leading to a slight surplus in the market: supply currently marginally exceeds demand. Oil prices remain close to recent historical lows. Some analysts note that if current trends continue, the average price for Brent could fall to $50 per barrel by 2026. For now, the market remains in a relative balance, lacking strong impulses for either growth or decline.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Stocks at Moderate Prices
On the gas market, the focus is on Europe’s passage through the heating season. EU countries have approached the winter cold with underground gas storage facilities filled to a comfortable 75-80% of their capacity by the end of November. This is just slightly below record levels from last fall and provides a strong buffer against prolonged cold spells. Thanks to this and diversified supplies, European gas prices remain low: December TTF futures are around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 cubic meters)—the lowest in more than a year.
High stocks have been possible due to record levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. This autumn, European companies actively purchased LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, nearly compensating for the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived at European ports each month, which allowed for timely filling of storage. An additional factor was the mild weather: warm autumn days and the late onset of cold are keeping consumption low and allowing for slower depletion of gas reserves than usual.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are high, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This is favorable for the industry and power generation in Europe as winter begins, reducing costs and the risk of supply interruptions. However, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of abnormal cold, the balance may quickly change, forcing accelerated gas consumption from storage facilities and causing price spikes towards the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives and Sanctions Pressure Form Mixed Expectations
In the second half of November, there arose cautious hopes for a geopolitical thaw. The U.S. has unofficially presented a plan for a peaceful resolution to the situation around Ukraine, which includes a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia. Media reports suggest that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received signals from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement, developed with input from Moscow. The prospect of achieving a compromise is encouraging; de-escalation of the conflict could potentially lift restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
However, there has yet to be any real breakthrough, and conversely, the West is intensifying sanctions pressure. On November 21, a new package of U.S. sanctions aimed directly at the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. Major companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil have been targeted—foreign partners have been instructed to fully cease cooperation by this date. In mid-November, additional measures against Russian energy assets were announced by the UK and the EU. London has given companies until November 28 to complete transactions with these oil giants, after which any cooperation must end. The Biden administration has also threatened further stringent measures (up to special tariffs on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, there are currently no specific shifts on the diplomatic front, and the sanctions standoff remains in full force. Nonetheless, the very fact of continued dialogue between key players offers hope that the most severe restrictions may be moderated in anticipation of negotiation outcomes. In the coming weeks, markets will be watching the contacts between world leaders closely: the success of peace initiatives will improve investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric of restrictions, while their failure threatens to escalate tensions further. The outcomes of these efforts will define the long-term conditions for cooperation in energy and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Under Sanctions Pressure
India and China, the two largest Asian consumers, are forced to adapt to sanctions pressure. Under Western pressure, Indian refiners have reduced purchases of Russian oil (notably, Reliance ceased imports of Urals by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in return). In China, state-owned companies have temporarily suspended new contracts for Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions, while independent refineries have ramped up purchases to record levels, taking advantage of the situation. Although China continues to increase its own oil and gas production, it still depends on external supplies for about 70% of oil and 40% of gas.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries have set new records for "green" generation. In the EU, total solar and wind generation surpassed production from coal and gas plants for the first time in 2024; in the U.S., RES share exceeded 30% at the beginning of 2025. China is annually introducing record capacities of solar and wind, strengthening its leadership. Investments in clean energy are also at an all-time high: according to IEA estimates, they will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half directed to RES, power grids, and energy storage.
Nevertheless, energy systems still need traditional generation for stability. The rising share of solar and wind creates balancing problems, as RES do not produce electricity consistently. Gas and, in some places, coal plants are still required to cover peak loads—for instance, last winter, some European countries had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities are rapidly investing in energy storage and "smart" grids in an attempt to enhance reliability. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal, but in the coming years, traditional plants will remain essential as backup. The energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push for decarbonization, coal maintains a crucial role in the energy balance. This autumn, China increased electricity generation at coal-fired power plants to record levels, although domestic production slightly decreased—this has raised imports to multi-year highs and pushed worldwide prices up from summer lows. Other major consumers, such as India, continue to generate most of their electricity from coal, and many developing countries are building new coal-fired power plants. Exporters are increasing supplies due to high demand. After the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices are moderate. Even with climate strategies being implemented, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts predict that in the next decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant role despite efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The Russian domestic fuel market has stabilized following the acute crisis from early autumn. At the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel soared to record heights, causing a local fuel shortage at several gas stations. The government was forced to intervene: temporary export restrictions on oil products were introduced at the end of September, while refineries ramped up fuel production after completing maintenance. By mid-October, these measures had successfully reversed the price surge.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for Ai-92 gasoline fell by approximately 4%, Ai-95 by 3%, and diesel prices decreased by around 3%. The stabilization of the wholesale market has begun to reflect in retail: consumer gasoline prices have slowly been decreasing for the third consecutive week (although only by a few cents). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of oil products to the domestic market. Overall, the measures taken have already produced results: the autumn price spike has given way to a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities intend to maintain price control, preventing new spikes in fuel costs in the upcoming months.
Outlook for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
On one hand, oversupply and hopes for a peaceful resolution to conflicts are softening prices and risks. On the other, the ongoing sanctions standoff and persistent geopolitical tensions create serious uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must exercise particular caution in risk management and maintain flexibility under these conditions.
Oil and gas and fuel companies are focusing on enhancing efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid changes in trade flows, as well as seeking new growth avenues—from field development to investments in renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
In the near future, key events will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine—the outcomes will largely determine market sentiment as 2026 approaches. Experts advise adopting a diversified strategy: combining operational measures for business resilience with the implementation of long-term plans that consider the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector.
