Detailed Review of the Oil and Gas and Energy Industry Situation as of November 29, 2025: Oil at Record Lows, Asia Reduces Imports, Sanctions Pressure, Price Dynamics, Gas Market, Energy Transition, Coal, Domestic Fuel Market
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of November 29, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting signals, attracting the attention of investors and participants in the energy market. Diplomatic efforts toward conflict resolution inspire cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tension: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that could weaken sanctions pressure in the long run. At the same time, Western countries continue to maintain a strict sanctions stance, creating a challenging environment for traditional energy export flows.
Global oil prices remain relatively low due to oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent benchmark is holding around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI is around $58, close to the lowest levels in the past couple of years and significantly below last year's prices. The European gas market is entering winter in a balanced state: underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in EU countries are approximately 75–80% full by the end of November, providing a solid reserve of resilience. Gas exchange rates are being maintained at comparatively low levels. However, the risk of weather uncertainty persists: a sharp cold snap could lead to price volatility spikes as the season progresses.
Concurrently, the global energy transition is accelerating—many countries are setting records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although traditional resources remain necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, even though oil, gas, and coal still constitute the backbone of global energy supply. In Russia, following the recent autumn fuel crisis, the authorities’ emergency measures have stabilized the domestic oil products market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have turned downward, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity segments of the fuel and energy complex as of the current date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
The global oil market is demonstrating sluggish price dynamics under the influence of fundamental factors of oversupply and slowing demand. A barrel of Brent is trading in a narrow range around $62, while WTI is near $58, roughly 15% lower than the level a year ago and close to multiyear lows. The market is not receiving strong impulses for either growth or further decline, existing in a state of relative equilibrium. The combined impact of current trends is leading to a slight surplus of oil in the market.
- OPEC+ Production Growth: The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for the participants of the deal will increase by another 137,000 barrels per day. Although further increases in quotas have been postponed at least until spring 2026 due to concerns about market oversaturation, the current supply increase is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Demand Slump: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly slowed down. The IEA estimates the increase in demand in 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to around 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC’s forecasts are now more moderate—around +1.2 million barrels per day. The weakening of the global economy and the effects of previous price spikes limit consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
Low prices are starting to affect high-cost producers. In the U.S. shale sector, a reduction in drilling activity is noted, as a price of around $60 per barrel is at the breakeven point for several independent companies. Some analysts predict that if current trends continue, the average Brent price could drop to as low as $50 per barrel in 2026. For now, however, the oversupply and expectations for a more lenient geopolitical situation keep oil prices under pressure.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Reserves at Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe’s approach to the heating season. EU countries are entering winter with gas storage facilities filled to a comfortable 75–80% by the end of November. This is only slightly lower than record storage levels from last autumn and provides a robust buffer in the event of prolonged cold spells. This, along with supply diversification, keeps European gas prices low: December TTF futures are trading around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 m³), a minimum in over a year.
The high reserves have been made possible by a record import of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the fall, European companies actively purchased LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, almost offsetting the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic meters of LNG were arriving monthly at European ports, allowing for timely filling of UGS. An additional factor has been mild weather: a warm autumn and the delayed onset of cold weather have kept consumption down and allowed for slower gas withdrawal from storage.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are large, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This situation is favorable for Europe's industry and power generation at the start of winter, reducing costs and the risk of disruptions. Nevertheless, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of abnormal cold spells, the balance between supply and demand could shift quickly, forcing accelerated gas withdrawals from UGS and causing pricing spikes closer to the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives Inspire Hope, Sanctions Standoff Persists
In the second half of November, cautious hopes for a geopolitical de-escalation emerged. Reports indicate that the U.S. has informally presented a peace plan addressing the conflict surrounding Ukraine, proposing a phased lifting of certain sanctions against Russia upon fulfilling the agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly received a signal from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement, developed with Moscow’s involvement. The prospect of reaching a compromise instills optimism: de-escalation could potentially lift restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in commodity markets.
So far, however, there has been no real breakthrough—instead, the West is intensifying sanctions pressure. A new U.S. sanctions package targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect on November 21. Major companies Rosneft and LUKOIL have been subjected to restrictions; foreign counterparties are required to cease collaboration with them by that date. In mid-November, additional measures against Russian energy assets were announced by the UK and EU. London has given companies until November 28 to complete any transactions with these oil giants, after which cooperation must cease. The U.S. administration has also threatened additional stringent measures (up to special tariffs on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil) should diplomatic progress stall.
Thus, on the diplomatic front, there are still no concrete shifts, and the sanctions standoff persists in full force. Nonetheless, the mere fact that dialogue continues between key players gives hope that the most stringent restrictions may be eased while awaiting negotiation results. In the coming weeks, markets will closely monitor contacts among global leaders. Success in peace initiatives will enhance investor sentiment and soften sanctions rhetoric, while their failure threatens new escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will largely determine the long-term terms of cooperation in the energy sector and the rules of engagement in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Adapt to Sanctions Pressure
The two largest Asian energy consumers—India and China—are forced to adapt to the new restrictions on oil trade.
- India: Under pressure from Western sanctions, Indian refineries are significantly reducing purchases of Russian oil. In particular, Reliance Industries fully ceased imports of Urals grade by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in exchange. Increased banking scrutiny and the risk of secondary sanctions are pushing Indian refineries to seek alternative suppliers, despite Russia accounting for up to one-third of India's total oil imports in 2025.
- China: In China, state oil companies have temporarily suspended new deals for importing Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions. However, independent processors (known as "teapots") have taken advantage of the situation and ramped up purchases to record volumes, obtaining raw materials at substantial discounts. Although China is also increasing its own oil and gas production, it remains roughly 70% reliant on oil imports and 40% on gas imports, critically dependent on external supplies.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
Many countries worldwide are setting new records in "green" generation. In the EU, total electricity generation from solar and wind exceeded production from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time after 2024. In the U.S., the share of renewable sources surpassed 30% at the beginning of 2025. China is annually commissioning record capacities for solar and wind power plants, strengthening its leadership in the RES sector. Investment in clean energy is also hitting new highs: according to the IEA, global investments in energy transformation will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with over half of this sum earmarked for RES, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
However, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability. The growth of the share of sun and wind creates balancing challenges, as RES do not produce electricity continuously. Gas-fired, and in some cases, coal-fired power plants are still needed to cover peak loads—last winter, certain European countries had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Governments in various countries are rapidly investing in large energy storage systems and "smart" grids, striving to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global power generation, surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, traditional plants will still be necessary as a reserve and insurance. The energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources to ensure uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push for decarbonization, coal continues to play a key role in the energy balance. This autumn, electricity generation from coal-fired power plants in China reached record levels, although domestic coal production slightly declined. As a result, coal imports to China surged to multiyear highs, lifting global prices from the dismal summer lows. Other major consumers, such as India, still derive a significant portion of their electricity from coal, while many developing countries continue to build new coal-fired power plants. Coal exporters have ramped up shipments to capitalize on strong demand for the commodity.
Following the shocks of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, while prices are moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts expect that in the upcoming decade, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will retain a significant role despite efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The internal fuel market in Russia has stabilized after the acute crisis of early autumn. At the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel soared to record heights, causing local fuel shortages at certain gas stations. The government had to intervene: from the end of September, temporary restrictions on the export of oil products were introduced, while oil refineries (refineries) increased fuel production after completing scheduled repairs. By mid-October, facilitated by these measures, the price surge was successfully reversed.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, the exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline dropped by about 4%, AI-95 by 3%, and diesel saw a price decrease of roughly 3%. The stabilization of the wholesale market is starting to be reflected in retail prices: consumer gasoline prices have been slowly declining for the third consecutive week (albeit by just a few kopecks). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of oil products to the domestic market.
Overall, the measures taken have already yielded results: the autumn price surge has given way to a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities are determined to maintain control over prices, preventing any new spikes in fuel prices in the coming months.
Prospects for Investors and Participants in the Energy Market
On one hand, oversupply and hopes for peaceful conflict resolution are softening prices and risks. On the other hand, the ongoing sanctions standoff and persistent geopolitical tensions create serious uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must, in such conditions, manage risks particularly carefully and maintain flexibility.
Oil and gas companies are currently focusing on improving efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid the restructuring of trade flows. At the same time, they are seeking new growth areas—from developing fields to investing in renewable energy and storage infrastructure. In the near future, key events will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine: their outcomes will largely determine market sentiment on the brink of 2026.
Experts recommend adhering to a diversified strategy. It is worth combining operational measures for business resilience with the implementation of long-term plans that consider the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global fuel and energy sector. This approach will help companies and investors overcome current challenges and take advantage of emerging opportunities in the dynamically changing energy market.
