Global Oil and Gas and Energy News for December 5, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, OPEC+ Policy, Sanctions, the Energy Market in Europe and Asia, the Russian Fuel and Energy Complex, Renewable Energy Sources, and Coal. Analytics for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 5, 2025, illustrate a mixed dynamic in global markets amid cautious hopes for peaceful resolution and ongoing risks of oversupply. Global oil prices hover around multi-month lows: Brent crude is fluctuating around $62–63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is close to $59. These levels are significantly below mid-year figures and reflect a combination of factors ranging from expectations of progress in peace negotiations to signs of oversupply. In contrast, the European gas market enters winter relatively confidently: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are over 85% full, providing a substantial safety cushion, while wholesale prices (TTF index) remain below €30 per MWh, significantly lower than peaks in previous years.
Geopolitical tension surrounding energy remains unabated. The West continues to intensify sanctions on the Russian energy sector—the European Union recently legally approved a phased rejection of Russian gas imports by 2027 and a swift reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at a diplomatic resolution to the conflict have yet to yield tangible results, leaving supply constraints and risks in place. Inside Russia, the government has extended emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market following an autumn shortage of gasoline and diesel, strictly limiting the export of petroleum products. Concurrently, global energy is accelerating its "green" transition: investments in renewable sources are at record highs, with new incentives being implemented, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—still play a critical role in the energy balance of most countries. We provide comprehensive analytics on the current situation for investors and industry participants.
Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and Oversupply Pressure Prices
As December begins, oil prices remain under pressure and exhibit volatility near local lows. After relative stability in the autumn, North Sea Brent has dropped to around $62 per barrel, while WTI futures have fallen to $59. Current prices are about 15% lower than year-ago levels. The market is pricing in likely easing of restrictions on Russian oil should peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington succeed, reducing the geopolitical risk premium in prices. Concurrently, concerns over oversupply are rising: industry data shows an increase in crude oil and fuel inventories, and seasonal demand decline at the year's end coupled with a slowing Chinese economy limits consumption. The OPEC+ oil alliance reaffirmed at its November 30 meeting that it would maintain current production quotas until the end of 2026, signifying a reluctance to increase supply and risk price crashes. Consequently, the cumulative impact of these factors has tilted the market balance towards excess supply. Prices remain low as market participants assess the prospects of a peace agreement and OPEC+'s next steps in response to changing conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Comfortable Supplies and Modest Prices
The European natural gas market approaches the peak heating season without significant disruption. Thanks to timely fuel injections and a mild start to winter, EU countries welcome December with significantly filled gas storage facilities and relatively low prices. This reduces the threat of a repeat of the crisis experienced in 2022. Key factors in the current situation on Europe's gas market include:
- High UGS Fill Levels: According to industry monitoring, the average filling level of gas storage in the EU exceeds 85%, significantly above the norm for the start of winter. Accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of prolonged cold weather and supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. A decrease in LNG demand in Asia has released additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the drop in pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, LNG inflow remains high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the beginning of winter and energy-saving measures are restraining gas consumption growth. Concurrently, the EU is diversifying sources: imports of gas from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, strengthening energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are currently nearly three times lower than last year's extreme peaks. The Dutch TTF index remains around €28–30 per MWh. The filling of storage facilities and market balancing have allowed for avoidance of new price spikes even amid reductions in gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe enters winter with a considerable safety margin in the gas market. Even in the case of cold weather, the accumulated reserves and flexible LNG supply chains can mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand, especially if energy needs in Asia begin to rise again.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extended Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia experienced a sharp escalation in the shortage of motor fuels (gasoline and diesel) in the domestic market due to a combination of factors. The seasonal demand surge (the harvesting campaign increased fuel consumption) coincided with a decrease in supply from refineries, some of which curtailed production due to unscheduled repairs and drone attacks on infrastructure. In several regions, gasoline supply disruptions occurred, forcing the government to swiftly intervene to stabilize the situation. Authorities have implemented emergency measures that continue to be in effect:
- Gasoline Export Ban: The Russian government imposed a temporary full ban on the export of automotive gasoline by all producers and traders (with the exception of supplies under intergovernmental agreements) back in late August. Initially, this measure was intended to last until October but has since been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to ongoing tension in the domestic fuel market.
- Diesel Export Restrictions: At the same time, the export of diesel fuel for independent traders is prohibited until the year's end. Oil companies with their own refineries may continue limited diesel exports to avoid halting production. This partial ban aims to ensure adequate domestic supply of petroleum products and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to relevant officials, the fuel crisis that arose in autumn has a localized and temporary nature. Reserve stocks were mobilized, and refining is gradually recovering from unscheduled downtime. By early winter, the situation has somewhat stabilized: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from September peaks, although they remain above last year's levels. The government's priority is to fully ensure the domestic market and prevent a new surge in prices; therefore, if necessary, stringent export restrictions may be extended into 2026.
Sanctions and Policy: Intensified Western Pressure and the Search for Compromises
The collective West continues to tighten its policy toward the Russian fuel and energy complex, showing no signs of easing sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized the plan for a complete and indefinite cessation of imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with the cessation of LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This action aims to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of export revenues in the medium term. Hungary and Slovakia, which are dependent on Russian resources, have traditionally opposed the initiative, but their objections could not block the overall decision of the EU.
Simultaneously, the United States is intensifying its own pressure. The Trump administration has taken a hard line against countries collaborating with Russia in the energy sector. In particular, Washington imposed higher tariffs on certain Indian goods in 2025, partly in response to India's purchases of Russian oil, and signaled a reconsideration of concessions for Venezuela. These moves create uncertainty regarding the future supply of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington regarding conflict resolution have not yielded significant progress—the consultations in Moscow involving American emissaries concluded without breakthroughs. Hostilities in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources remain in place. Western companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, the geopolitical standoff surrounding energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainties to the market.
Asia: India and China Focus on Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia—India and China—continue to prioritize their energy security, balancing the benefits of cheap imports with external pressures. Asian countries are actively taking advantage of opportunities to procure energy resources under favorable conditions while simultaneously developing domestic projects and partnerships. The current situation is as follows:
- India: Under Western pressure, New Delhi temporarily reduced its purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow's key clients overall. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals oil, meeting domestic fuel needs and directing surpluses of petroleum products for export. President Vladimir Putin's visit to India on December 4 underscores the close ties between the countries. It is expected that on December 5 during the summit in New Delhi, the parties will discuss new agreements for long-term oil supply and potential gas projects. Russia is also seeking to increase its import of Indian goods to balance trade despite U.S. sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to collaboration with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite economic slowing, Beijing retains a key role in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying import channels: additional long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (including with Qatar and the U.S.) are being secured, pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas production are increasing. Concurrently, China is gradually ramping up its own hydrocarbon production, although this is currently insufficient to meet domestic demand fully. The country continues to make large coal purchases to ensure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in renewable energy development, though they do not plan to forsake traditional sources—oil, gas, and coal—which remain the foundation of their energy balance in the coming years.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, setting new records in investments and capacity additions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investments in renewable energy surpassed $2 trillion in 2025—more than double the total investments in the oil and gas sector for the same period. The main capital flow is directed towards the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as associated infrastructure—high-voltage grids and storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerate greenhouse gas emission reductions and significantly increase renewable energy capacity by 2030. To achieve these goals, a complex of initiatives is proposed:
- Speeding Up Permitting Processes: Reduce approval times and simplify the issuance of permits for building renewable energy facilities, modernizing grids, and implementing other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy—special tariffs, tax benefits, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investments and lower risks for business.
- Financing the Transition in Developing Countries: Increase the volumes of international financial assistance for emerging market economies to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy where domestic resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being established to reduce the costs of "green" projects in the most vulnerable regions.
The explosive growth of renewable energy is already leading to changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables together with nuclear generation) account for over 40% of electricity production worldwide, and this share continues to grow steadily. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations may occur due to weather conditions or consumption spikes, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, bringing about the dawn of a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, but the Peak is Near
Despite global efforts to decarbonize, the world coal market in 2025 remains one of the largest in history. Global coal consumption remains at record levels—around 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, slightly exceeding last year's figures. Demand continues to rise in the developing economies of Asia (primarily in India and Southeast Asian countries), compensating for decreased coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, in the first half of 2025, global coal consumption even slightly decreased due to increased generation from renewables and mild weather; however, a slight increase (approximately 1%) is expected by year-end. Thus, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year with near-record levels of coal combustion.
Coal production is also increasing—especially in China and India, which are ramping up domestic output to reduce import dependence. Prices for thermal coal generally remain stable as high demand in Asia maintains market balance. However, analysts believe global demand for coal has reached a "plateau" and will transition to a gradual decline in the coming years as renewable energy development accelerates and climate policy tightens.
