Current News in Oil and Gas and Energy as of February 22, 2026: Expectations from OPEC+, Price Dynamics for Oil and Gas, LNG Market, Refinery Maintenance Season, Oil Products, Electricity, Renewables, and Coal. A Global Overview for Investors and Market Participants in the Energy Sector.
The global energy sector enters the final week of February with a shift in investor focus: from "winter shortages" to assessing supply and demand balances in the second quarter. Oil and gas remain sensitive to geopolitical factors and logistics, while the oil products and refinery sector is navigating its maintenance season, impacting spreads and margins. In the electricity and renewables domains, the discourse around energy costs for industry and the acceleration of investments in networks and system flexibility is intensifying.
Oil: The Market Anticipates a Scenario of Higher Supply in Q2
The key intrigue of the week centers around expectations that the OPEC+ alliance may shift from a cautious hold on barrels to a gradual increase in production this spring, contingent on demand confirmation and sustained oil prices. This development is more critical for the global balance than short-term fluctuations in quotes: the market begins to re-evaluate the trajectory of inventories and risk premiums in advance.
Concurrently, discussions are intensifying regarding how rapidly non-OPEC+ production will grow in 2026 and how disciplined members of the agreement can adhere to quotas, particularly in light of budgetary needs and market share competition.
OPEC+ and Geopolitics: A Flexible Strategy Instead of "Rigid" Promises
Signals from participating countries in the agreement convey a singular logic: production decisions will depend on "market conditions" and may adapt as demand and risks fluctuate. For investors, this implies a growing role for "event-driven volatility" — reactions to statements, meetings, and informal guidelines concerning target production levels.
The most significant risk factors for oil and oil products at this point are:
- Geopolitical Premium (tensions in the Middle East, risks of sanctions and countermeasures);
- Sanction and Insurance Infrastructure (charter costs, tanker availability, delivery routes);
- Discipline within OPEC+ and the distribution of "space" for increasing production among leaders and constrained countries.
Under these conditions, the oil market tends to assess not just "one number" of production, but a range and speed of supply changes — which directly impacts the futures curve and hedging strategies.
Gas and LNG: Europe Maintains Stability, Yet Remains Sensitive to Supplies
The European gas market, mid-February, displays stability: prices at major hubs remain around winter levels (approximately 32 euros/MWh), with weather and LNG flow as key drivers. Regulators and governments, assessing the heating season, increasingly emphasize "structural resilience" — diversified imports and inventory management, rather than emergency measures.
At the country level, two parallel trends are evident:
- Stabilization and Risk Control. In major EU economies, there is an emphasis on the sufficiency of gas supplies for the remainder of winter with current LNG and import flows.
- Energy Cost Policies. Some countries are enhancing support for consumers and businesses to alleviate the impact of high electricity and gas prices on industry.
For the global LNG market, key projects that expand supply and flexibility are crucial. A notable subplot is the development of floating liquefied gas (FLNG) facilities: these "floating plants" expedite production in countries with limited terrestrial infrastructure and enhance the geographical diversification of LNG supplies.
Refineries and Oil Products: Maintenance Season Supports the Market, but Diesel Prices "Chill"
The refining sector enters its traditional maintenance period in the Northern Hemisphere. This simultaneously:
- Restricts crude oil processing and supports local balances of oil products;
- Creates volatility in refining margins and "cracks" for gasoline and diesel;
- Increases the significance of logistics — flows between regions, availability of tankers and terminals.
In recent weeks, a decline in values for the diesel segment has been observed, with weakening refining margins in certain markets, which is particularly important for publicly traded refiners and integrated oil companies. However, as spring approaches, the market shifts its gaze towards gasoline balances: in 2026, a more "balanced" supply is expected, which may pressure gasoline cracks as refineries exit maintenance.
Practical takeaway: under the current demand structure, oil products may behave diversely — making it critical for investors to separate the narrative of "oil as a commodity" from the story of "refinery margins and product spreads."
Coal: Asia Sets the Tone, but Competition with Gas and Renewables Grows
Coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance in Asia, particularly in electricity generation and metallurgy. In 2026, coal demand increasingly hinges on:
- The cost of gas and availability of LNG in the region;
- The pace of renewables integration and grid constraints;
- Export policies of major suppliers and logistics (ports and freight).
For global energy players, this means: coal assets maintain cash flow under favorable pricing, but their long-term valuation increasingly encounters regulatory risks and capital costs.
Electricity: The Competitiveness Question for Industry Takes Center Stage
In the European electricity and gas market, there is a growing political demand to reduce wholesale prices and narrow spreads between countries. This is reflected in support measures and attempts to “smooth out” price peaks for households and businesses.
For investors in electricity, key themes on the horizon for 2026 include:
- Networks and Flexibility (storage, demand management, flexible generation);
- Reliability (reserve capacity and capacity market mechanisms);
- Cost of Capital and tariff regulation affecting project profitability.
Indeed, network infrastructure and system balancing increasingly become the “bottleneck” for the growth of renewables.
Renewables and Energy Transition: Investments Shift Towards Infrastructure and Supply Chains
Renewables remain a structural driver, but the market is becoming more pragmatic: not only new solar and wind stations come to the forefront, but also grid projects, localization of components, access to critical materials, and expedited permitting procedures. For the global energy transition, this indicates a shift to a phase of "industrialization": more capital-intensive projects, longer timelines, and heightened attention to contractual structures (PPAs, indexing, guarantees).
In 2026, investors in renewables are increasingly assessing:
- The quality of the regulatory framework and predictability of returns;
- The ability of projects to withstand fluctuations in rates and equipment costs;
- The availability of grid connections and storage infrastructure.
What Matters for Investors and Market Participants in the Energy Sector: Weekly Checklist
Ahead of the new week, investors, traders, and corporate buyers in oil and gas and energy should focus on the following signals:
- OPEC+ Rhetoric for Q2: Any suggestions regarding the pace of barrel returns quickly impact oil and currency-commodity assets.
- Gas in Europe and LNG: Weather patterns, inventory levels, and the stability of import flows dictate TTF volatility and electricity prices.
- Refinery Margins and Oil Products: During maintenance season, diesel and gasoline cracks, as well as regional supply imbalances, become key.
- Electricity and Renewables: Decisions regarding price support and investments in networks affect the valuations of generating and network companies.
- Coal: Monitor demand from Asia and competition with gas, especially with fluctuations in LNG prices.
The baseline scenario for the end of February: the energy market remains "event-driven." Oil balances between expectations of increased supply and geopolitical premiums, gas and LNG balance between seasonal weather and infrastructure resilience, while oil products and refineries navigate between maintenance and re-evaluation of spreads. In such an environment, strategies with disciplined risk management gain advantage: diversification across segments (oil, gas, electricity, renewables), controlling exposure to product cracks, and careful management of delivery timelines.
