Oil and Gas News and Energy, Wednesday, December 3, 2025 - OPEC+ Introduces Capacity Audit, Oil Prices Decrease

Current Oil and Gas Industry and Energy News for Wednesday, December 3, 2025: OPEC+ Decisions, Oil Price Dynamics, Gas Market Situation, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Oil Products. Analysis for Investors and Energy Market Participants.

Oil Market

• Global Oil Market: An oversupply and active production growth are pressuring prices. Brent is trading around $63/barrel, close to two-year lows.
• OPEC+: At the recent OPEC+ meeting, a moderate increase in oil production was agreed for December (+137,000 bbl/day from November levels), while a pause in further increases is maintained at the beginning of 2026.
• USA: Oil production in the U.S. continues to increase, with output in the Lower 48 states reaching a record 11.4 million bbl/day in July 2025. Drilling efficiency improves, although the number of active rigs is declining.
• Transportation: Last week, Ukrainian drones damaged a dock on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in the Black Sea; however, oil pumping has already resumed through another mooring location.

Gas Market

• European Inventories: Gas storage facilities in Europe are about 75-80% full, contributing to a calm atmosphere in the market. January TTF futures have fallen to historically low levels of around €28/MWh ($335/thousand m³), supported by warm weather and excessive fuel supplies.
• LNG Supplies: Liquefied gas exports from the U.S. and Australia are actively increasing. The world is witnessing a record number of gas carriers in transit. Meanwhile, demand in Asia is slowing: China is reducing its own LNG purchases and even reselling excesses, further stabilizing the European market.
• Russia – China: Gazprom is breaking records in gas deliveries to China; on December 1, "Power of Siberia" delivered over 100 million m³ per day for the first time, with annual volumes planned to increase to 44 billion m³. The increase in supplies through "Power of Siberia" reduces China's dependence on LNG and impacts the global gas balance.
• Transit and Negotiations: Consultations continue regarding the extension of gas transit through Ukraine after 2024 and discussions about Russia's energy relations with the European Union. Market participants expect that the final agreements on gas could influence the structure of supplies to Europe in 2026.

Electricity and Renewable Energy

• Infrastructure Investments: At the COP30 climate conference, the world's largest utilities announced plans to increase expenditures on energy transition to a record ~$148 billion per year. Of this, about $66 billion per year will go to new renewable energy sources, and around $82 billion will be allocated to building networks and energy storage systems.
• Growth of Renewable Energy: Installed capacity of green generation is actively increasing. Many countries broke annual records for the installation of solar and wind power plants in 2025 (for instance, India added over 25 GW of new capacity in the first seven months). The accelerated growth of renewable energy keeps CO₂ emission levels stable.
• Decarbonization: The final document of COP30 reaffirmed commitments under the Paris Agreement but did not introduce a direct abandonment of oil and coal. Meanwhile, some countries are tightening their environmental policies: South Korea has announced its entry into the Powering Past Coal alliance and pledged not to build new coal-fired power plants, planning to decommission 40 out of 61 existing power stations by 2040.
• European Strategy: The European Union maintains its course towards energy independence. Ambassadors have agreed on a plan to completely abandon the import of Russian oil and gas by 2028 and to impose an embargo on purchases of Russian LNG starting in 2027. At the same time, member states must ensure their gas storage facilities are filled to at least 90% by November 2027.

Coal Sector

• Asian Demand: In Southeast and South Asia, coal remains the main source of electricity. Long-term contracts and a rapidly growing industry support high levels of coal consumption, although the share of renewable sources is gradually increasing.
• China: The world’s largest consumer of coal shows signs of demand stabilization. Growth in coal generation is planned to be contained – new power plants are being constructed more slowly, and several provinces are imposing restrictions on coal projects. This has already reflected in a slowdown in CO₂ emissions growth.
• Carbon Transition: Some countries are officially announcing the abandonment of coal. For instance, South Korea has joined the Powering Past Coal alliance, abandoned the construction of new coal-fired power plants, and promised to close most of its existing coal power stations by 2040.

Oil Products and Refineries

• Fuel Demand: Global consumption of diesel and jet fuel continues to grow (stimulating distillate fractions), while gasoline demand remains relatively weak due to improved transport energy efficiency and slowing economic growth.
• Refinery Operations: Many large refineries in Asia and the Middle East are operating at nearly full capacity to meet domestic demand and fuel exports. European refineries are overwhelmed, utilizing alternative oil sources (such as Azerbaijani or Kazakh oil) to compensate for restrictions on Russian oil.
• Margins and Projects: Refining margins remain uneven: low oil prices constrain profits amidst an oversupply of raw materials, but diesel shortages support profitability for distillate refineries. New capacity expansion projects are underway in Asia and the Middle East, while investments in refineries in several developed countries are constrained due to the transition to renewable sources and strict environmental regulations.

Companies and Investments

• Russian Issuances: Gazprom Neft is preparing to issue ruble bonds worth up to 20 billion rubles with a floating coupon tied to the key rate. The Russian Ministry of Energy has approved RusHydro's investment program for 2026, maintaining the total financing at previously planned levels.
• Market Deals: International companies are ramping up diversification efforts. ExxonMobil is negotiating with the Iraqi government to acquire Lukoil's stake in the West Qurna-2 field, as Lukoil, under sanctions, plans to sell off its foreign assets. Concurrently, traders and oil companies (Gunvor, Vitol, Citadel, and others) are increasing investments in oil and gas production, particularly in U.S. shale gas projects, trying to build integrated supply chains.
• Major Investment Programs: Beyond private transactions, energy companies and investors are planning significant capital injections into the sector. The global association of energy holdings UNEZA anticipates over $1 trillion in investments by 2030 (including support for tens of thousands of kilometers of new lines and battery capacities), while increasing production and infrastructure remain priorities in the oil and gas sector.

Geopolitics and Regulation

• Ukraine: Negotiations to end the conflict remain an important factor for the markets. At the same time, practical actions continue: Russia and Ukraine are mutually striking at infrastructure (oil and gas facilities and tankers). Against this backdrop, the risk premium for energy resources has increased, although hopes for the resolution of military actions exert downward pressure.
• Sanctions: Western restrictions on Russian energy resources continue to impact the market. U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have already reduced oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget, with prices for tax purposes dropping to nearly $57/barrel from January to November 2025. The EU is gradually implementing a comprehensive ban on Russian oil and gas: ambassadors have approved legislation to abandon Russian fuel by 2028 and plan to impose an LNG embargo starting in 2027.
• Middle East and Asia: Instability in the region continues to influence oil and gas markets. Iranian oil reserves and the potential resumption of its exports remain on OPEC's agenda, while a potential normalization of relations between the U.S. and Venezuela could alter supply structures. Meanwhile, Asian states are strengthening energy security through bilateral agreements and the development of local resources.

Structured facts and analysis on key events in commodity and energy markets are provided for investors and participants in the global energy sector.