Global Energy Markets and Key Trends - Friday, December 26, 2025: Oil, Gas

Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of Friday, December 26, 2025: Global Oil and Gas Markets, OPEC+ Decisions, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, Electricity, and Key Trends in the Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants

The latest developments in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 26, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants with mixed signals. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the protracted conflict in Eastern Europe are ongoing, but no concrete results have been achieved thus far. The United States and European partners have offered Ukraine unprecedented security guarantees in exchange for a ceasefire, instilling cautious optimism about the possibility of a peace agreement. However, no formal agreements have been reached, and the stringent sanctions regime against the Russian energy sector remains fully in place.

The global oil market remains under pressure from oversupply and weakened demand. Prices for the benchmark Brent crude are hovering around $62 per barrel, close to the lowest levels since 2021, indicating the formation of a crude surplus. The European gas market shows resilience: even at the peak of winter consumption, underground gas storage in the EU is filled to approximately two-thirds capacity, effectively ruling out the risk of shortages. Steady supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and alternative pipeline fuels are keeping wholesale prices at moderate levels, significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, easing the burden on consumers.

Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records in electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional coal and gas power plants continue to play a crucial role in ensuring the reliability of energy systems. Simultaneously, interest in nuclear energy as a stable low-carbon source is reviving in several regions. Global coal consumption is estimated to have peaked historically in 2025 and is on the verge of decline. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.

OPEC+ Maintains Production Levels to Stabilize the Market

At its December meeting, OPEC+ members decided to maintain current oil production quotas for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a potential oversupply situation in the market.
OPEC+ countries have already returned around 2.9 million barrels per day to the market from previously reduced volumes, yet the total production cut of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day is still in effect and has been extended until the end of 2026.
The meeting took place amidst a new attempt by the U.S. to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, with OPEC+ taking into account that a successful negotiation and potential easing of sanctions could release additional volumes of oil into the market, whereas a failure would amplify sanctions pressure and limit exports from Russia.

Oil Prices Remain Stable

Global oil prices approach the end of the year without sharp fluctuations, settling within an average range. Brent is holding steady at around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $58–59, reflecting a balance between sustained demand and adequate supply in the oil market.

At the beginning of the week, oil prices rose by about 2% amid strong macroeconomic data from the U.S.: GDP growth in Q3 exceeded expectations, bolstering forecasts for continued demand for energy resources.
As the holiday season approaches, trading activity on exchanges has decreased, further limiting volatility and contributing to relative price stability by the year's end.

Natural Gas: Comfortable Stocks and Moderate Prices

The natural gas market enters winter relatively calm. In Europe, even the cold weather in December has not caused a stir: EU gas storage remains filled to over 65% of total capacity, significantly above historical average levels for the end of the year. Such storage levels virtually guarantee the absence of gas shortages this winter.

Wholesale gas prices remain at moderate levels. Gas futures at the TTF hub are trading around €27 per MWh (approximately $320 per thousand cubic meters)—a low not seen in nearly 18 months, well below the price peaks of 2022.
Active LNG imports continue to replenish European storage, with total LNG imports into Europe expected to approach record highs by the end of 2025. High supply volumes are mitigating price increases even amid higher demand during the cold period.
Looking ahead, a potential risk factor for prices could arise from competition for LNG from Asia if economic growth in Asia-Pacific countries accelerates, leading to increased demand in the region. However, the current balance in the gas market remains favorable for consumers.

Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Energy Supply

Political conflicts and sanctions continue to significantly impact global energy markets, simultaneously creating threats of disruptions and hopes for improvement. In recent weeks, market attention has been focused on diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis: negotiations involving the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia (including meetings in Berlin and Anchorage) demonstrate the parties' willingness to find a compromise.

As of now, there has been no breakthrough, and strict sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports remain. Furthermore, Washington has previously signaled a readiness to tighten measures in the absence of progress: a 100% tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. was discussed if Beijing does not reduce its purchases of Russian oil. Despite this, the continuation of dialogue has allowed for postponements of the strictest actions, and markets hope for positive shifts in the coming weeks. Any rapprochement of positions may improve investor sentiment and soften the sanctions rhetoric, while a failure in negotiations threatens a new escalation of trade restrictions. Thus, the political factor remains a key uncertain driver for oil and gas supplies into 2026.

Renewable Energy: Record Wind Production and Investments

The renewable energy sector continues to grow rapidly worldwide, setting new capacity records and attracting extensive investments—even amid ongoing geopolitical instability. The year 2025 has become significant for "green" energy, showcasing its resilience and attractiveness for capital investments.

The UK achieved a historic peak of wind energy production on December 5, reaching 23,825 MW, which accounted for over half of the country's energy consumption at that moment. This record was facilitated by strong winter winds and the expansion of offshore wind farms.
According to BloombergNEF, global investments in new renewable energy projects reached a record $386 billion in the first half of 2025. The majority of funds were directed towards the development of solar and wind generation, as well as energy storage systems necessary for integrating renewables into the energy network.
In the U.S., a federal court overturned a ban on constructing new wind energy facilities on federal lands and offshore, which had been imposed earlier this year. The court's decision paves the way for the realization of large offshore wind farms and supports states' plans to increase their share of clean energy.
China maintains its global leadership in renewable energy: the total installed capacity of renewable sources in the country has surpassed 1.88 TW (approximately 56% of total electricity capacity). The extensive deployment of solar and wind installations, along with storage systems, has enabled China to keep CO₂ emissions stable despite economic growth.

Nuclear Energy: A Return of Significant Capacity

After a prolonged downturn in the global nuclear sector, a revival is underway. Various countries are reassessing the role of nuclear generation as a stable low-carbon energy source, striving to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and ensure the reliability of energy systems.

Japan is preparing for a partial restart of the largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. Energy company TEPCO received approval from the Niigata prefectural authorities and plans to launch reactor No. 6, with a capacity of 1,360 MW, on January 20, 2026—this will be the first reactor commissioned by the company since the 2011 disaster. Complete restoration of the 8.2-gigawatt plant is expected to be carried out in stages over several years.
The Japanese government has announced support measures for the nuclear industry, aiming to at least double the share of nuclear generation in the country's energy balance by 2030. A system of government loans and guarantees for reactor modernization is being introduced; currently, 14 out of 33 reactors that remained after the Fukushima disaster have resumed operations.
A return to nuclear energy is also observed in other regions. In Europe, the Olkiluoto-3 reactor in Finland achieved full operational capacity in 2025; France and the UK are investing in the construction of new nuclear power plants. In the U.S., discussions are ongoing regarding the extension of the lifespan of existing units and financing for small modular reactor projects.

Coal Sector: Consumption Peak and Gradual Decline

The global coal market reached a historical peak in 2025, after which a trend reversal is expected. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption grew by approximately 0.5% to around 8.85 billion tons this year. However, significant further growth is not anticipated; on the contrary, a slow decline in coal demand is expected by the end of the decade as renewables, nuclear, and natural gas gradually displace coal from the energy mix.

In the U.S., coal use for electricity generation increased in 2025. This was facilitated by last year's spike in gas prices and a temporary directive from the administration to extend the operations of some coal-fired power plants that were previously slated for closure.
China remains the largest coal consumer, accounting for about 60% of the country's electricity generation. In 2025, coal demand in China stabilized; its gradual decline is expected by 2030, supported by the large-scale deployment of renewable capacities. Beijing's policy aims to achieve peak emissions by 2030, meaning a reduction in the role of coal in the coming years.

Refined Products and Refining: High Margins at Year-End

By the end of 2025, the global refined products market shows high profitability for refineries. The decline in crude oil prices, coupled with stable demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, has driven growth in refining margins in many regions. Refiners are benefiting from relatively cheaper raw material costs while still experiencing healthy levels of refined product consumption.

Global indicative refining margins have risen to their highest levels in recent years. Notably, a significant increase in profits is observed in the diesel segment, where demand remains high in transportation and industry.
New refinery constructions in Asia and the Middle East (e.g., large complexes in China and Gulf countries) are increasing global refining capacity. However, concurrent closures of aging plants in Europe and North America help maintain a relative balance in the refined products market, preventing oversaturation and preserving profitability.
In Russia, authorities have extended the ban on exports of gasoline and diesel after the summer crisis to saturate the domestic market and lower prices. These measures have stabilized the situation within Russia, but have simultaneously reduced the supply of diesel fuel in the global market, also contributing to the maintenance of high margins in Europe and Asia.

Corporate News: Deals and Strategies of Energy Companies

The end of the year has been marked by significant corporate moves within the FEC, reflecting companies' efforts to optimize asset portfolios and adapt to new market conditions. Oil and energy corporations are reassessing strategies, focusing both on enhancing efficiency in traditional business and investing in the transition to clean energy.

BP announced the sale of 65% of its subsidiary Castrol (a lubricant manufacturer) to the American investment fund Stonepeak for $6 billion. The deal values the entire Castrol business at $10.1 billion; BP will retain a 35% stake in the new joint venture. The proceeds will be used to reduce debt and pay dividends, aligning with the strategy to enhance returns in the traditional oil segment.
Despite sanctions, foreign partners continue to show interest in Russian oil and gas projects. For instance, Indian ONGC and Japanese SODECO have maintained their stakes in the Sakhalin-1 project, while a preliminary agreement between ExxonMobil and Rosneft to compensate for losses incurred in previous years signals a willingness among major players to resume cooperation once the political situation improves.
The merger of technology and energy continues: American tech giant Alphabet (parent company of Google) announced in December the acquisition of Intersect Power for $4.7 billion, a company involved in renewable energy projects and grid infrastructure (including powering data centers). This move will enable Alphabet to accelerate the development of its renewable energy generation and reduce its data centers' dependence on overloaded electrical grids.