Current Startup and Venture Capital News as of September 18, 2026: OpenAI's Negotiations for a New Round, Mega-rounds in AI Development, Record Bonuses for Research Teams, New Unicorns, Valuation Gap Between Europe and the U.S., Deals in India, and the IPO Window Check Amidst Expensive Money

As we approach the end of the third week of September, the global venture market is operating in two realities. On one hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023, increasing them to 3.75-4.00%, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, and 16 of the 18 committee members anticipate another increase by the end of the year. On the other hand, private capital continues to significantly overvalue AI leaders within a matter of months. For venture investors and funds, Friday, September 18, serves as a test: will the appetite for risk withstand the new cost of capital?

Key topics in the venture agenda:

• OpenAI is in early negotiations for a round valuing the company at over $1.2 trillion.
• Factory raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion—three times its April valuation.
• Discovery Loop, founded by Jeff Dean, is seeking capital at a valuation of around $50 billion, despite having no product or revenue.
• New unicorns: Profound ($1.8 billion), CADDi ($1.2 billion), Thatch ($1 billion).
• Europe: the median valuation of AI startups is nearly eight times lower than that of American counterparts.
• IPO: Holtec is expected to debut on Nasdaq this Friday, while Oura is preparing a listing by the end of the month.

OpenAI and the Race for Trillion-Dollar Valuations

OpenAI has conducted preliminary negotiations for a new funding round that could value the company at more than $1.2 trillion. The initiative came from investors, and the terms of the deal may still change. In March, the company closed the largest private round in history at $122 billion with a valuation of $852 billion, so a new benchmark would represent a growth of approximately 41% in less than six months. In August, a tender offer was made to buy back employee shares for $7 billion at the previous valuation.

The logic is clear: the IPO documents have been filed confidentially, but the listing has been pushed to 2027, while the private round provides capital without the obligations of public disclosure. Revenue on an annual basis exceeded $40 billion in July; however, the year 2025 closed with a net loss of $38.5 billion on revenues of about $13 billion. Competitor Anthropic, which raised $65 billion in May at a valuation of $965 billion, is reportedly preparing for a Nasdaq listing this fall, with its shares trading in the secondary market at an implied valuation of around $1.2 trillion. The first company to go public will set the multiplier for the entire sector.

AI Development: Factory and the Price of "Software Factories"

Startup Factory, which creates AI agents called Droids for writing, testing, reviewing, and deploying code, raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion. The round was backed by Khosla Ventures, Blackstone, and Sequoia Capital, with angel investors including Marc Benioff, Brad Gerstner, and Nico Rosberg. The valuation dynamics are indicative:

1. April — Series C of $150 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion;
2. July — extension round of $120 million at a valuation of $4 billion;
3. September — $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion, totaling over $400 million raised.

Among its clients are Nvidia, Adobe, Morgan Stanley, and Palo Alto Networks. The segment is overheated: Cognition raised over $2 billion in September at a valuation of $48 billion, while SpaceX acquired the developer Cursor for $60 billion. Venture funds will need to determine whether corporate demand will be sufficient for several players with the same thesis.

Premium for Team: Discovery Loop and Thinking Machines

Discovery Loop, founded on August 5 by former Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean along with Sanjay Gemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals, is in negotiations for funding at a valuation of about $50 billion. Just weeks earlier, $1 billion was discussed at a valuation of around $10 billion. The initial round was led by Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures with participation from Lightspeed and Kleiner Perkins, while Alphabet serves as a founding investor. The company aims to automate scientific experiments, but presently lacks both a product and revenue. Meanwhile, Thinking Machines Lab, led by Mira Murati, is concurrently discussing $1 billion at a valuation of $40 billion. The market is paying not for metrics, but for access to rare research teams—this represents the most risky segment of the current cycle.

New Unicorns and This Week’s Infrastructure Rounds

• Profound — $180 million Series D at a $1.8 billion valuation led by Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins, seven months after its Series C; the platform helps brands appear in AI search responses.
• CADDi — $114 million Series D at a $1.2 billion valuation; an AI data platform for industrial manufacturing.
• Thatch — $108 million at a $1 billion valuation from General Catalyst and Index Ventures.
• Lyte — $165 million Series C at a $1.6 billion valuation; perception systems for "physical AI."
• TAR — $120 million Series A at a $1 billion valuation from Spark Capital; autonomous energy supply for data centers.
• Crusoe and Fluidstack — over $3 billion at valuations of approximately $30 billion and $1.5 billion respectively.

The common denominator remains unchanged: venture capital flows to areas with shortages—computing, energy, industrial data.

Europe: Volume Growth Amidst Eightfold Discounts

According to PitchBook, the median pre-money valuation of AI startups in Europe is €8.3 million compared to €64.2 million in the U.S. Notably, AI accounted for 60.2% of the total value of European venture deals in the first half of the year, up from 37.8% in 2025, with the overall volume reaching €44 billion. Recent rounds include Integral (€18 million Series A, Mosaic Ventures and Reid Hoffman), Hackuity ($19 million Series B), and Veridion ($20 million Series A). Crane Venture Partners closed four funds totaling $484 million. For global investors, the European discount is both a liquidity risk and an entry point.

Asia: India Increasing Weekly Volumes

From September 7 to 12, 24 Indian startups secured approximately $413 million—an increase of 42% compared to the previous week. The leaders include space company Pixxel ($100 million Series C from Temasek and Seraphim), restaurant chain Popo Global ($56 million from Artal Asia), and the brand Nua ($50 million from Peak XV Partners). Since the beginning of the year, India has raised $16.3 billion across 1,450 rounds: fewer deals, but larger checks.

IPO and Macro: A Test for the IPO Window

It is anticipated that trading for Holtec Nuclear will begin on Nasdaq this Friday under the ticker HNUC: 50 million shares in a range of $15–18, approximately $825 million at the midpoint of the range, with a valuation of up to $10.2 billion. Demand for nuclear energy is being fueled by data centers, but the sector is uneven: X-energy is trading below its IPO price, while Standard Nuclear fell on its first day. Oura is expecting to list before the end of September at a valuation of over $16 billion. The market's reaction to the Fed was muted for technology stocks: the Dow lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq remained nearly unchanged. The next focal point will be the Bank of Japan's decision.

Russia and the CIS: A Market of Single Deals

According to various estimates, the Russian venture market in the first half of 2026 shrank by about half, with the number of active investors dropping from 50 to 33; one methodology values the volume at only $29.3 million. In the CIS, 92% of investments were from the Uzbek marketplace Uzum's round of $131.5 million, with Uzbekistan accounting for 44 out of 58 deals in the region. Capital is concentrating in mature companies with confirmed revenue.

What This Means for Venture Investors and Funds

1. The discount rate has risen, and so have valuations of leaders. The gap between AI elites and the rest of the market will widen; late-stage investments outside of AI should expect a reevaluation of multipliers.
2. The speed of revaluation poses a risk in itself. A tripling in five months necessitates a check of revenue retention, rather than just growth rates.
3. Bets on teams without a product are justified only in a portfolio context and with a limited fund share.
4. Geography provides arbitrage opportunities. The European discount and early rounds in India appear more attractive than the overheated segments in the U.S.
5. Liquidity will define the fall. The debuts of Holtec and Oura will demonstrate whether the public market is ready for new offerings at yields above 5%.

The venture market enters the final stretch of September with record private valuations and the highest cost of capital in three years. Startups that can demonstrate not just potential but also economic viability will prevail.