The energy crisis in Europe has been triggered by the war between the U.S. and Iran, which began on February 28, and disruptions in oil supplies from countries in the Persian Gulf. In March, Birol mentioned that the situation is comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas crisis of 2022. "Not only oil and gas, but also some vital arteries of the global economy — such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium — their trade has been interrupted, which will lead to serious consequences for the global economy," he asserted.
According to Birol, more than 40 energy facilities had sustained significant damage following the onset of military actions.
Russian airlines have responded calmly to the IEA's recent statement. For instance, a representative from S7 told RBC that the airline has not observed any fuel shortages in any of the foreign countries within its route network. "There is also no fuel shortage in Russia," she added. The press service of the charter airline Azur Air noted that they do not foresee any risks in disrupting their summer flight program to Turkey due to fuel shortages.
RBC has sent inquiries to Aeroflot and Ural Airlines.
Alexander Lanetsky, CEO of Friendly Avia Support, stated to RBC that aircraft fuel is currently available in European airports. He mentioned that shortages may arise within the next two to three months, depending on the country. "If supplies do not continue, transport operations could be significantly reduced. But for now, this remains a theoretical question," he believes.
However, an RBC source from one airline indicated that fuel prices at foreign airports have increased by at least 30% from pre-war levels, with some price hikes reaching up to 50%. "In the current conditions, this will put pressure on the profitability of transportation," he stated.
Lanetsky confirms that jet fuel prices in Europe have been rising since the beginning of the armed conflict in the Middle East. "Jet fuel accounts for approximately 40-45% of the operating expenses of European carriers," he noted. "Over the past two months, the price of fuel has roughly doubled. This is already impacting ticket prices." The expert added that he does not see any possibility of replacing traditional jet fuel with alternative fuels in the coming years.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, jet fuel prices today are "notably higher than usual": according to the International Air Transport Association, during the week ending April 10, the average price of jet fuel in Europe was $203.6 per barrel ($1607 per ton). "This is 4.7% higher than the previous month and 123.5% higher than the average in 2025," the expert noted.
Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, stated that kerosene prices in Northwestern Europe reached $1800 per ton last week, compared to $750–830 per ton before the onset of the Middle East conflict. "This is more than a twofold increase in six weeks. The previous record was set in the spring of 2022, and the market has already surpassed it," he added.
Tereshkin emphasizes that jet fuel falls under the category of light petroleum products, produced from low-sulfur crude oil. "This is the type of oil extracted from the Middle East. Therefore, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz poses risks for the jet fuel market," the expert explained.
Kasatkin notes that jet fuel in Europe is primarily produced by major refineries — Total, Shell, BP, Eni, Neste. However, European production is insufficient: a significant portion of the volumes is imported as a finished product and raw material for its production. Key external suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and India, according to the RBC source. "European refineries can increase jet fuel production, but only at the expense of reducing diesel or gasoline production, which are already in short supply," he stated.
Sergey Kolobanov, deputy director of the Energy Sector Economics Center at the Center for Strategic Development, speculated in early April that the total consumption of jet fuel in Europe in 2025 will reach 48 million tons, of which only 30 million tons will be produced by refineries in EU countries. The remainder is imported, with half of the imports coming from Middle Eastern countries.
It is too early to speak of a deficit, according to Tereshkin. "There is a supply shock that overlaps with rising logistics costs. These factors will keep prices high but do not threaten the disruption of air travel," he is confident.
On the other hand, Kasatkin believes that a deficit in Europe has already occurred: restrictions on refueling have been recorded at four airports in Italy — the limit for individual aircraft is 2,000 liters, while a fully loaded narrow-body aircraft requires 20,000 liters.
"Airlines expect that kerosene will remain in short supply until the end of the year and may be forced to optimize their flights," Kasatkin stated. "Some carriers did not hedge their fuel risks and are left completely exposed to price increases. Many airlines have fuel reserves sufficient for only a few weeks: most carriers will not last more than 30 days, and in some Eastern European countries, only enough fuel remains for a week."
Kasatkin reminds us that the last tanker carrying jet fuel from the Persian Gulf arrived last week. "If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, by May supplies may be cut in half," he predicts. "This will lead to mass flight cancellations, rising ticket prices, and a significant blow to the tourism season in economies dependent on it in Southern Europe."
According to the analyst, among the emergency measures under consideration are centralized procurement of jet fuel at the EU level, a temporary suspension of carbon restrictions for aviation, and the removal of several taxes on air transportation.
Source: RBC
