Scheduled spring repairs at Russian refineries may coincide with an increase in seasonal diesel demand from agricultural producers, which is likely to occur later than usual this year. Market participants believe that this combination could support quotes for summer fuel, which have already reached their highest levels since October.
The later-than-usual start to spring agricultural work, due to adverse weather conditions, may overlap with the planned refinery repairs, thus supporting the diesel market, industry sources told "Kommersant". According to a market participant, rising quotations could also be fueled by an increase in export parity due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
In preparation for the scheduled refinery repairs, commodity stocks have been formed and are currently at high levels, surpassing last year’s figures, the Ministry of Energy reported to "Kommersant". As part of the preparations for the sowing campaign, oil companies have agreed on fuel supply volumes to agricultural producers, they noted. "The Ministry of Energy will continue to monitor the market conditions for motor fuel, and necessary regulatory measures will be taken based on the evolving supply and demand balance," they added.
The price of summer diesel at the St. Petersburg exchange rose by 1.96% on March 10, reaching 60.53 thousand rubles per ton, according to the index for the European part of Russia. Interseasonal diesel also increased by 1.1%, to 60.63 thousand rubles per ton. These are the highest levels for both fuel types since mid-October 2025. From March 2 to March 6, wholesale prices for summer diesel rose by 5.6%, while interseasonal prices increased by 7.7%.
Exchange prices for diesel rose in the first week of March amid external uncertainties and expectations of seasonal demand increases, according to a report by the National Exchange Price Agency.
Analysts note that market participants are beginning to build up inventories in anticipation of heightened consumption from the agricultural and construction sectors. However, despite the arrival of the calendar spring, actual demand remains subdued due to weather conditions that complicate logistics and slow down economic activity, as mentioned in the report. At the same time, total diesel sales remain relatively low at 57.9 thousand tons daily, which traditionally supports price increases, analysts point out. Oil companies are reallocating supplies in favor of summer diesel, with minimal sales planned at 310.9 thousand tons in March, an 84% increase from February’s figures.
According to Andrey Dyachenko, chief analyst for oil markets, petroleum products, and macroeconomics at "Proleum", snowfalls may delay agricultural activities by two to three weeks; however, the stock of summer diesel has already been formed, making further increases impractical.
Portfolio manager of "Alpha-Capital" Dmitry Skryabin does not see the current sales volume as a factor for further price growth. He believes that scheduled spring refinery repairs, if undertaken according to schedule, will also have a limited impact on the market. Moreover, he adds that last year’s experience revealed significant reserves in case of possible disruptions. Managing partner of NEFT Research Sergey Frolov notes that Russia produces diesel with a considerable surplus; therefore, the risk of shortages is low even considering potential unscheduled refinery shutdowns.
The dynamics of diesel exchange prices in spring will also be determined by the situation regarding damping payments, says Sergey Tereshkin, general director of Open Oil Market. The higher the subsidies, he explains, the lower the incentives for oil companies to raise prices; conversely, if payments decrease, companies will offset losses through rising wholesale prices. In February, for the first time in five years, oil companies transferred 18.8 billion rubles to the budget through the damping mechanism, according to the Ministry of Finance. In January, budget payments to oil companies amounted to 16.9 billion rubles.
In March, given the rise in external prices for petroleum products, the situation may shift in favor of producers, notes Sergey Tereshkin. Without adjustments to the damping formula, quotes may again exceed 70 thousand rubles per ton within the year, he adds.
In January, according to analysts from "Euler", the export profitability of diesel for Russian producers has, for the first time since at least 2024, exceeded domestic deliveries, partly due to falling exchange prices (see "Kommersant" from February 13). According to Reuters, in January, marine diesel and gas oil exports from Russia increased by 19% compared to December, reaching 4 million tons. In February, shipments fell to 2.85 million tons due to challenging ice conditions in the Baltic ports and unscheduled refinery repairs. Currently, only producers can export diesel; a ban is in place for others until July 31.
Source: Kommersant
