In the tumultuous global oil market, a significant reshaping of spheres of influence is underway. Previously, American efforts aimed to replace Russian oil in India with Venezuelan supplies; however, the onset of conflict in Iran has halted this process. As a result, the current deficit in oil supply from the Persian Gulf opens new markets for Russia, while faith in Venezuelan oil as a long-term player wanes—particularly in the absence of an independent player sanctioned by Western overseers.
The narrative propagated by overseas media claiming that Caracas will oust Moscow from the Indian market is unfounded. Venezuelan oil is not only relieved of sanctions but is now under U.S. control. Speaking of a systematic approach is either premature or misguided altogether. Meanwhile, India is not rushing to forsake liquid fuel from Russia. According to Bloomberg, New Delhi plans to inform Washington of its intention to increase imports of Russian oil, driven by the same Persian Gulf crisis which has impacted supplies to Indian refineries.
Overall, while stock exchanges are grappling with the repercussions of the Middle Eastern crisis, India has emerged as Russia's "safe haven" and a key market since 2022, once again finding itself at the heart of a geopolitical triangle. Headlines in business publications abound with forecasts claiming that Venezuelan oil is on the verge of replacing Russian barrels in Indian ports. However, a historical analysis and cold statistics tell a different story: until recently, Russia was steadily displacing Venezuela from South Asia.
In 2016, Caracas supplied India with 462,000 barrels per day (b/d), accounting for 11% of imports, while Russian presence was marginal at a mere 0.1%. U.S. sanctions against Venezuelan PDVSA in 2019 and Moscow's subsequent pivot to the East drastically altered the dynamics. By the fall of 2025, Russia's share in India’s imports surged to 33% (1.7 million b/d), while supplies from Venezuela nearly ceased. Changes only began in early 2026 when Washington eased sanctions, granting U.S. companies permission to engage with Venezuelan crude.
Independent expert Kirill Rodionov noted in a conversation with VG that Venezuela aims to bolster its presence in India for two key reasons. The first is the easing of export operations from "the shadows" due to a decision by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), eliminating the necessity to utilize an unregistered OECD fleet. The second reason is China's withdrawal from purchasing Venezuelan oil, effective January 2026.
"With China stepping back from Venezuelan oil supplies, Caracas requires a new market, and India presents itself as that opportunity," our interviewee emphasized.
He further stated that India will remain the only major growing market globally amidst stagnating demand in Europe, the U.S., and China.
However, the expert community advises against dramatizing the situation. Direct supplies from Russia to India have indeed plummeted to their lowest since 2022 (505,000 b/d in January 2026 compared to 1.49 million b/d in November 2025), but this reflects tightened U.S. controls rather than the success of competitors. Russian oil is finding alternative routes: in January of this year, over 900,000 b/d of Russian crude passed through Egypt and Singapore.
Rodionov believes that Russian supplies will not be entirely replaced. He outlines two phases of the ongoing situation: the current decline and subsequent growth as geopolitical stabilization unfolds. "Given that oil production in Venezuela is relatively low, its presence in the Indian market this year will not severely hinder Russian oil supplies. I don’t foresee significant competition due to Venezuela's insufficient supply levels to replace Russian crude," he asserts. According to his forecasts, Venezuela may achieve production levels of 3 million b/d only by the early 2030s, contingent on American investment and the demopolization of PDVSA.
Nevertheless, logistical flexibility remains a crucial advantage for Russian companies. Maria Nikitina, founder of N. Trans Lab, describes the operations of domestic logistics under conditions of uncertainty as a true business phenomenon.
The "shadow fleet" created by our colleagues has become not only a factor in international politics, a topic of discussion at EU summits, and a pivotal point in sanctions but also, in essence, a business and geopolitical phenomenon, alongside names like Sputnik, Kalashnikov, and vodka@matreshka," she notes.
According to the expert, the response to decreased Indian demand has been prompt redirection of volumes to China.
"Russian logistics have begun actively transloading crude from smaller tankers to VLCC supertankers in the Red Sea area, aiming to reduce costs and optimize logistics for long routes to the East. Since December, between 6.3 and 6.9 million barrels have been transshipped, with supplies to Chinese ports rising to 2.09 million barrels per day in February, fully compensating for the drop in Indian demand," Ms. Nikitina reports.
The expert believes that if circumstances change tomorrow, alternate solutions will be rapidly sourced, as uncertainty and volatility have become the new reality for us.
However, Venezuela is not the only contender eyeing the Indian market. The topic is essential within the broader context of increasing supply in the market, as Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, conveyed to VG.
"One of the 'sleeping tigers' is Iran, which currently relies almost entirely on China as its only significant market. The current volume of Iranian oil exports to China is estimated at 2 million barrels per day (b/d); should a deal with the U.S. materialize, Iran would ramp up exports while redirecting some volumes to other markets, including India.
A notable increase in supply could also come from Saudi Arabia, whose actual production volume remains more than 2 million b/d below its maximum output level. Until 2022, Saudi Arabia was India’s leading oil supplier until it was replaced by Russia. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the determining factor will be the dynamics of OPEC+ quotas.
Participants in the deal are likely to raise their production targets this year.
Furthermore, Canada has the potential to increase production and exports, particularly if the Trump administration revives the Keystone XL pipeline project, which was shelved by the Biden administration.
If approved, this pipeline will facilitate the transportation of Canadian crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast for subsequent tanker deliveries to global markets," concludes our interviewee.
It is clear that the global energy map continues to be redrawn in real-time. Venezuela's re-entry into the legal market does not spell doom for Russian exports but merely the return of another significant player into a complex multi-vector game. India, pursuing its interests, will continue to diversify its supplies, compelling exporters to compete not only on price but also on logistical sophistication.
The real challenge for the industry lies not in the emergence of competitors from Caracas, should this occur and be sanctioned by the U.S., but in the overall stabilization of oil prices at low levels, which inevitably leads to decreased export revenues compared to peak values in 2022. In this new reality, survival will depend on who can quickly adapt their supply chains to the "noise" of sanctions, market fluctuations, and geopolitical storms like those we currently observe in the Middle East.
Source: ВГУДОК
