On May 31, Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that the EU might temporarily refrain from raising the price cap on Russian oil. The current ceiling stands at $44.1 per barrel and is subject to biannual reviews based on the average Urals prices. Due to the global price surge driven by the Middle Eastern conflict, the cap on Russian oil may have risen to $65 per barrel, notes the agency.
According to Bloomberg, the EU could suspend the automatic price cap increase until the end of 2026 or set a maximum price level of $60 per barrel.
This measure could be included in the EU's 21st sanctions package against Russia. A European Commission representative declined to comment on the agency's inquiry.
The EU and G7 countries permit their companies to provide services for the maritime transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries as long as they adhere to the price cap. The $44.1 per barrel figure was established by the EU, the UK, and Canada, while Japan set its cap at $47.6 per barrel, and the US at $60 per barrel.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite, tankers associated with G7 countries or their allies accounted for 29.4% of Russian oil exports in April, amounting to 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d), up from 20.3% in March. The April figure was the highest in seven months.
Analysts attribute the increase in G7-related tankers to signals from Western authorities indicating a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil amid an imminent raw material shortage in the global market due to the Middle Eastern conflict. Since March, the US has issued four licenses for transactions involving Russian oil and petroleum products. The latest permit is valid until June 17 and applies to volumes loaded onto tankers before April 17.
Furthermore, the EU did not include a ban on providing transportation services for Russian oil in its 20th sanctions package. Instead, the EU Council announced the introduction of a "framework for a future ban," which will be coordinated with the G7. The Council's regulation stated that it is advisable to amend the price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products, which would allow for the "prompt blocking" of maritime supplies (see “Ъ” April 24).
According to Bloomberg, a total ban on the maritime transportation of Russian oil is also unlikely to be included in the EU's 21st sanctions package against Russia.
This measure is not supported by several EU member states and G7 countries as a whole, the agency notes. Earlier, Greece—the largest ship-owning country in Europe—opposed a complete ban. According to CAS, in April, Greek tanker operators increased their transportation of Russian oil by 2.2 times, reaching 687 thousand b/d, the highest level since October 2025.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University, states that the price cap itself does not impact the volumes of Russian exports. However, if the cap is increased and Russian oil falls within its limits, competition between the shadow and conventional fleet will intensify, leading to lower freight costs and allowing Russia to earn more—this, according to the expert, is the crux of the challenge for Europeans, prompting them to reconsider their actions.
Kirill Bakhtin, head of the Russian equities analytics center at BCS Global Markets, notes that for Russian oil producers today, the level of $44.1 or $60-65 per barrel is not particularly significant, as the actual price is higher. According to Argus, as of May 22, Urals prices ranged from $84-85 per barrel depending on the loading port. "In our opinion, the EU price cap is a significantly less effective tool than the G7's cap," adds Mr. Bakhtin.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the oil price cap is the most administratively complex restrictive measure.
“If, in the case of direct oil and petroleum product imports, monitoring incoming vessels is sufficient, tracking the price cap requires overseeing hundreds and thousands of oil purchase transactions, which is technically impossible,” explains the analyst. However, Mr. Tereshkin points out that a temporary waiver of the price cap would be an acknowledgment of the measure's ineffectiveness, prompting the EU to consider yet another "reconfiguration" of this mechanism. He believes that in terms of the overall market situation, this would change little.
Source: Kommersant
