Gasoline Remains in the Country: Can the Export Ban Lower Prices?

From April 2 to July 31, Russia has implemented a ban on gasoline exports for all market participants. Gasoline prices, which had been rising since the beginning of the year, have immediately started to decline, despite a reduction in domestic production and an increase in demand as spring arrives. On one hand, the rise in global oil and petroleum product prices, including gasoline, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, has prompted producers to seek opportunities to sell gasoline on foreign markets. On the other hand, these high global prices will also enable oil companies to receive significant compensations from the government. Why did gasoline prices increase, why was the decision to limit exports made, how long will it last, and how will it affect Russian producers' business? Forbes investigates. On April 2, the Russian government issued a decree imposing a complete ban on gasoline exports until July 31, 2026. "The decision was made to maintain a stable situation in the domestic fuel market during the high seasonal demand and agricultural fieldwork, as well as in light of the rising global oil prices due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East," the government stated. The restriction will not apply to deliveries under international intergovernmental agreements, as noted in the decree. In 2025, a full ban on gasoline exports was introduced on August 31 due to a sharp increase in wholesale and retail prices and lasted until the end of February 2026. The ban was lifted due to falling prices, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products marketplace Open Oil Market. Although gasoline prices began to rise again on January 12, 2026, the first day of trading on the St. Petersburg stock exchange that year, they were still lower than in August when the ban was imposed. On February 27, just before the embargo was lifted, the price of AI-92 gasoline was 59,263 rubles per ton, a decrease of 13.3% compared to August 29, the last trading day before the export ban, when the price was 68,435 rubles per ton. AI-95 saw an even greater decline of 20.7%, dropping to 62,677 rubles per ton from 79,054. Russia's customs statistics have been closed since 2022. According to the latest available data, in 2021, the country exported 4.4 million tons of automotive gasoline, a 24.5% decrease compared to 2020. The total production volume in 2021 was 40.8 million tons. Data on gasoline production will be closed by Rosstat starting in 2024. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak estimated the volume for 2024 at 44.1 million tons and anticipated its maintenance or slight growth in 2025. Forbes sent inquiries to the largest Russian oil companies—Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Gazprom Neft—asking whether they have ceased gasoline exports, but had not received any responses at the time of publication. The directive to impose a complete ban on gasoline exports was given to the Ministry of Energy by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on March 27, following a meeting with representatives of oil companies and relevant agencies. The day before the meeting, on March 26, Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft, proposed to introduce a full ban on gasoline exports for two to three months. He told reporters that, in his opinion, this measure was necessary to prevent fuel from being siphoned off the Russian market to external markets, where prices are significantly higher.

How gasoline prices rose

Gasoline prices, which had been increasing since the beginning of the year, began to decline on March 25, likely following the first reports that authorities were discussing the introduction of an embargo. On March 24, gasoline prices for AI-92 reached their peak, increasing 25% since the beginning of the year to 68,504 rubles per ton. Prices for AI-95 rose even more sharply—by 31% to 77,483 rubles per ton. By April 2, AI-92 was trading at 65,196 rubles per ton, down 4.8% from its peak, while AI-95 was 70,031 rubles per ton, a 3.4% decrease. On March 19, a week before Novak's meeting with the oil companies, Anton Rubtsov, head of the oil and gas complex department at the Ministry of Energy, claimed that gasoline reserves in the country amounted to 2 million tons, more than a year prior. He also added that the ministry anticipated an increase in oil processing volumes at refineries. However, prices continued to rise. Several factors influenced this rise, including the increase in excise taxes by 5.1% and VAT from 20% to 22% starting January 1, 2026, notes Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the Raw Materials Market Analysis Center at the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF). Additional price hikes were caused by scheduled repairs at major oil refineries (NPPs) and drone attacks that forced enterprises to reduce processing, he notes. The conflict in the Middle East also contributed to rising global prices for both oil and petroleum products. The surge in exchange prices for gasoline was linked to oil producers attempting to recover losses, believes Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. Payments to oil producers through the so-called price damper in January 2026 amounted to 16.9 billion rubles, down 90% compared to January 2025 when they reached 156.4 billion rubles. In February 2026, oil companies paid 18.8 billion rubles to the budget. The price damper is paid to oil companies from the budget as compensation for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. If the export price calculated by the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) is lower than domestic prices, oil companies have to pay the budget this difference. The formula for calculating payments through the damper is quite complex, emphasizes Tereshkin, and it is influenced not only by the difference between the calculated export and domestic prices but also by special coefficients like the price of gasoline in Rotterdam, average loading costs in Russian ports, transportation at sea, and the price of Brent crude oil. According to Tereshkin, informal agreements between fuel producers and regulators could have also played a role in the rise of exchange prices. He suspects that they may have instructed oil producers to restrain fuel price increases at the end of the previous year. The fact that prices decreased at the end of 2025 supports this hypothesis, states Tereshkin. "Restraining prices was supposed to provide regulators with reasonably decent inflation indicators for 2025; however, it resulted in a spike in prices at the beginning of 2026," he explains. Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 6% in January from 5.6% in December and remained high at 5.9% in February.

Why the ban is necessary

The decision to ban gasoline exports was made considering two factors, according to Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at the asset management company Arikapital. First, with the onset of spring, the demand for gasoline increases since significantly more private vehicles are used than in winter. At the same time, due to drone strikes on refineries and energy infrastructure, production is declining. In implementing restrictions, the government aimed to prevent a possible shortage in the domestic market. However, Suverov believes that prices will continue to rise due to inflation. "Saturation of the domestic market might contribute to some slowing of growth," he caveats. The ban on exports is likely to have a minimal impact on increasing physical supply in the domestic market, says Shevyrenkov from IEF. He notes that Russia exports a relatively small volume of gasoline, with most going through intergovernmental agreements, primarily with Mongolia and countries of the Eurasian Economic Union: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are exempt from the ban. Data on export volumes and destinations have been classified, reminders Shevyrenkov. However, he estimates that beyond supplies through intergovernmental agreements, Russia may have exported approximately 100,000 tons of gasoline monthly, while domestic consumption exceeds 3 million tons monthly. Nevertheless, the expert believes that the ban will limit the influence of high global gasoline prices on the Russian market since producers will lose an attractive export alternative. As global oil prices remained high throughout March due to the conflict in the Middle East, ranging from $80 to $110 per barrel, and since damper payments are calculated with a one-month lag, producers can expect significant payouts as early as April, remarks Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. He calculated that this month, oil producers could receive over 200 billion rubles from the budget. This will likely slow the price growth on the exchange in April and May. However, due to seasonal rises in demand, prices are expected to rise regardless of the export ban, Tereshkin warns. "Much will depend on whether regulators decide to revise the damper formula to guarantee Russian oil producers significant subsidies if global oil product prices start to decline," states Tereshkin. In October 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing oil producers to receive guaranteed compensations. However, its validity expires on May 1, 2026, and a decision on how the damper payment scheme will operate thereafter needs to be made. Despite high damper payments, producers still face the temptation to sell certain batches of gasoline abroad due to high global prices, says Shevyrenkov from IEF. Suverov from Arikapital believes that even receiving considerable compensation, companies might continue exporting gasoline to maintain their customer base abroad and secure foreign currency revenue for purchasing equipment or spare parts. If the situation with attacks on refineries and port infrastructure doesn't improve by the end of the export ban, the embargo will likely need to be extended, Suverov concludes. Shevyrenkov from IEF also permits the possibility of prolonging the embargo if the conflict in the Middle East drags on. Source: Forbes