What are you looking for:
The Hormuz Blockade Could Lead to Oil Prices Above $150 Per Barrel
The authors outline three potential scenarios for the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East – "Prolonged Escalation," "Localization," and "Complete Blockade." In the first scenario, if the current situation of limited traffic and regular attacks on vessels persists for several months, it will lead to a reduction in oil production in Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day by February 2026, maintaining oil prices above $100 per barrel.
In the "Localization" scenario, where traffic resumes within a few weeks and the Strait is patrolled by forces from involved countries, oil prices will remain capped at around $100 per barrel.
The third scenario envisions a total cessation of maritime traffic in the Strait, including Iranian vessels. This will result in a significant decline in oil production across the Middle East (B1 does not provide a specific forecast) and lead to substantial oil shortages in countries within the Asia-Pacific region, analysts note.
The five-week timeframe indicated in the review for the blockade's impact on oil prices is based on the travel time of tankers carrying oil from the Persian Gulf to buyers in East and Southeast Asia, which can take up to 2.5 weeks, as explained to Vedomosti by Aleksey Lavrukhin, head of B1's analytical center. After five weeks, the halt in supplies will become apparent, prompting proactive withdrawal from oil reserves and a swift search for new suppliers, he added.
According to B1, from 2023 to 2025, the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Oman Gulf in the Indian Ocean, accounted for 20–25% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Alternative routes – East-West pipelines in Saudi Arabia (with a capacity of 5–7 million barrels per day), Habshan-Fujairah in the UAE (1.5–1.8 million barrels per day), and Kirkuk to Ceyhan in Iraq and Turkey (1.6 million barrels per day) – can only export an amount that is only 50% of what is transported via the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the outbreak of armed conflict between the US and Israel with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was militarily blocked by Iranian forces in March, although, according to the vessel tracking system MarineTraffic, some ships were still able to pass through. Iran does not obstruct vessels from friendly countries, such as China, from navigating through the Strait, but most exporters are avoiding this route due to high risks, the B1 review indicates.
Disruptions to maritime trade in the Persian Gulf and mutual attacks on infrastructure by conflict participants have led to a significant reduction in oil production in the region. According to calculations by Vedomosti based on OPEC data, oil output in the Gulf countries fell by 33% or 8 million barrels per day in March 2026 compared to February of this year, reaching 16.5 million barrels per day (see publication from April 14).
The parties announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8, during which Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On April 11-12, the first round of US-Iran negotiations took place in Islamabad, facilitated by Pakistan, but did not yield any results. On April 12, US President Donald Trump stated that the US would block the Strait to prevent Iranian vessels and those that had paid Iran for transit from passing through. The blockade commenced on April 13, and on April 18, Iran announced the closure of the Strait in response to the US blockade.
The second round of US-Iran negotiations scheduled for April 21 has still not occurred. Meanwhile, Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the maritime blockade of the Strait. The blockade is not complete – some vessels, including Iranian ones, continue to navigate through the Strait. According to data from Kpler cited by CNN, from April 24 to 27, 17 vessels passed through the Strait, including four tankers. Bloomberg reports that at the start of this week, vessel movement through the Strait has nearly stopped altogether.
Brent crude oil prices have remained at around $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026. According to ICE data, on April 27, June futures for Brent crude were priced at $108 per barrel. On February 27, prior to the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, oil prices stood at $72.5 per barrel.
Serguei Tershkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, considers a rise in oil prices to $150 per barrel in 2026 to be an unrealistic scenario. He believes that disruptions in crude supply from the Middle East will be offset by strategic reserves held by China and other countries. As a result, the average price for Brent crude this year will not exceed $80 per barrel.
Senior analyst at the investment bank "Sinara," Aleksey Kokin, and analyst at Finam Group, Nikolai Dudenko, believe that the reduction in oil production in the Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day compared to February levels will occur as early as April. According to Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, the decline in production by the end of this month will reach 9.1 million barrels per day. In the event of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the decline could reach 10-12 million barrels per day, the expert notes. Dudenko suggests that the figure could reach 14 million barrels per day even without a complete blockade of the Strait.
Under these conditions, oil prices could rise to $110–120 per barrel, predicts Kokin. In Dudenko's view, if the current situation persists, prices could reach $120–130 per barrel, while prices could potentially soar to $150 per barrel should issues arise with maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Kasatkin believes that if the blockade of the Strait continues, prices could reach $145–155 per barrel, and in the event of escalated conflict targeting oil infrastructure, the cost of oil could climb to $200–215 per barrel.
The gradual formation of oil shortages in the market is becoming noticeable, especially in certain Asian countries, notes Kasatkin. According to the expert, the most critical situation is in Pakistan (with crude reserves for 15 days and 85% reliance on supplies via the Strait of Hormuz) and Bangladesh (12 days), while India (30 days) and Taiwan (45 days) are in a "high risk zone." Kokin believes the most significant challenges, in addition to Pakistan and Bangladesh, may arise for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
Source: Vedomosti
