The United States capitalized on the moment and significantly increased its export of energy resources to record levels. They began capturing OPEC’s market shares, their main competitor in the global oil market. On the other hand, they flooded the market with even more American LNG, allowing local companies to earn additional billions. How long will this success last?
The United States took advantage of the conflict in the Middle East and sharply increased its export of oil, petroleum products, and LNG. They are taking market share from OPEC, which, due to the military situation, has been forced to reduce its energy resource exports. How did the U.S. manage to profit from a conflict it has partly instigated in the Middle East?
U.S. oil exports reached a historic high of 12.9 million barrels per day, with over 60% comprising petroleum products (as of early April). Maritime exports in April are expected to reach a record 9.6 million barrels per day, with supplies to Asia nearly doubling compared to pre-war levels – reaching 2.5 million barrels per day, according to analytics firm Kpler. American companies are doing well financially, considering that both prices and export volumes have increased. The value of crude oil and petroleum products exported rose by $32 billion compared to pre-war figures, which has boosted corporate profits and tax revenues, according to ROI.
LNG supplies have also surged. In March, exports set a historical record. According to Kpler, the combined oil and LNG exports from the U.S. to Asia in March and April increased by approximately 30% compared to the same period last year.
The growth of the U.S. share in the oil market is linked to situational factors, whereas the LNG market experiences structural changes, states Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
“The increase in LNG exports from the U.S. is a result of new capacities coming online. Just a few days ago, the Golden Pass plant, the tenth LNG facility in the United States, made its first export shipment. By 2025, U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 154 billion cubic meters, up from 122 billion cubic meters in 2024. This year, export volumes are set to rise further, driven by increasing demand in external markets,” says Tereshkin.
“Americans have indeed begun producing more LNG. They have maximized the output of existing plants and initiated ramping up new facilities. Additionally, the heating season in the domestic market has ended, leading to reduced current consumption, which has allowed them to redirect excess volumes to export,” explains Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
However, in the case of oil, the U.S. has not increased its domestic production volumes. So how has export increased? “This occurred because they increased imports of one type of oil and raised exports of another type and petroleum products. The U.S. imports medium-sulfur and relatively heavy oil, yet exports light oil and petroleum products (produced from heavy oil). They import more from Canada and Mexico, while maritime exports are directed to countries that previously received Middle Eastern oil, which is now unavailable,” explains Igor Yushkov.
Consequently, while American oil companies are reaping additional profits in the current situation, this also poses a problem for the American public and the overall U.S. economy, as domestic prices rise in order to retain fuel within the country.
Unlike the gas market, in the oil market, companies have a choice of where to supply their products – either to the domestic or external market, which poses a significant challenge for the current U.S. administration,
says Yushkov.
While the U.S. share in the global market grows, OPEC's share declines. According to the IEA, in March 2026, oil production in Saudi Arabia decreased by 3.15 million barrels per day compared to the previous month; in the UAE, the reduction was 1.27 million barrels per day, in Kuwait – 1.35 million, and in Iraq – precisely 3 million. The total volume of these cuts is comparable to Russia’s oil production of 8.96 million barrels per day in March 2026, notes Tereshkin.
Even before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ began to increase production quotas by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day in order to reclaim its positions in the global market. Many OPEC+ participants were unhappy that they had to cut production prior, allowing competitors, including the U.S. and Guyana, to ramp up output.
Clearly, the situation has now changed.
“Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of oil from traditional OPEC countries – Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran – has diminished, and their market share has truly shrunk. But this is not due to an evolutionary path; rather, it is merely because their oil cannot fully reach the global market.
However, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, we will again witness OPEC+ resuming its increases in quotas,” concludes Yushkov.
The fact is, Asian countries are not particularly suited to light American oil. Asian refineries are designed to work with denser, sulfurous oil from the Middle East, rather than lighter American varieties. While plants can utilize light oil, the process becomes less efficient and profitable. Thus, following the resolution of the conflict, we can expect a return to the previous state of affairs. The joy of American oil producers will be short-lived.
Source: Vedomosti
