The heating season in Europe has just begun, yet reserves in storage facilities are already being depleted at record rates. Current levels are typically characteristic of late December. What is driving Europeans to consume their gas supplies so quickly this winter, and what are the potential risks?
European countries have been withdrawing gas from their underground storage facilities (UGS) at unprecedented rates. Between November 15 and 30, they extracted 7.7 billion cubic meters, exceeding the figures for the same period in November 2024 by 5%, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Withdrawals were lower during the first half of the month.
November withdrawals are running ahead of the usual consumption pace by about a month. Historically, the reserves in EU storage facilities reach the current level around late December (based on a five-year average), reports TASS.
“The real cold weather hasn't hit Europe yet. Several months of winter weather still lie ahead. Technologically, reducing reserves in storage decreases their effectiveness. If harsh or prolonged cold occurs, insufficient gas supplies in UGS could jeopardize reliable gas supply to European consumers,” say experts from Gazprom.
There are several reasons why Europeans are forced to withdraw more gas from storage at the start of this heating season than was necessary in 2024.
“Firstly, many European companies are currently trying to sell gas from underground storage because they fear that prices may drop further. They purchased and injected this gas earlier at higher prices than currently, and they are concerned about incurring even greater losses,”
— says Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (FNEB). Exchange prices for gas in Europe fell to a one-and-a-half-year low of $335 per thousand cubic meters on December 2.
Secondly, less pipeline gas is arriving in the EU compared to last year, with Russian gas transit through Ukraine down by 15-16 billion cubic meters. “Therefore, even with previous liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes, Europeans would still be withdrawing more gas from underground storage. The amounts of gas that were coming daily through Ukraine from Russia last year are now being compensated by gas from storage facilities,” explains the FNEB expert.
In addition, the EU has lost over 1 million tons of LNG per year that were previously shipped to the European market from two Russian projects — “Cryogas Vysotsk” and “Gazprom LNG Portovaya.” Supply has now been halted due to U.S. sanctions.
The third factor is that Europeans now have to “feed” Ukraine with their own gas. “Previously, Ukraine purchased virtual reverse gas, effectively Russian transit gas, but now it is physically taking blue fuel from Europeans. Apparently, Ukraine's own production has also declined due to Russian strikes, necessitating further purchases from Europe. Ukraine is now heavily reliant on Europeans, who must ensure gas supplies not only for their domestic market but also for Ukraine, through imports and their own storage facilities,” says Igor Yushkov.
The fourth distinction of this year compared to last year is that gas consumption in Europe has slightly increased in 2025. “Gas consumption in the EU has started to recover following a drop in 2022-2023 due to excessively high prices. This has happened because gas is now not excessively expensive, with prices around $400 per thousand cubic meters,” adds Yushkov.
However, in the expert's view, the cold weather is currently not the main reason for the higher withdrawals from UGS compared to last year.
What are the risks of a more rapid withdrawal of gas from underground storage? The potential exists for critically low gas supplies by the end of the year.
“The most extreme scenario is if severe frost hits at the end of the heating season. If cold temperatures strike in February and March while reserves are low, it will become increasingly difficult to withdraw gas on a daily basis.
This would lead to gas shortages, which would have to be covered only through current imports. This means that Europe would have to compete with Asian markets for LNG volumes. As a result, gas prices would rise, creating a negative effect for the European economy,” Yushkov explains.
Throughout the year, there has been an overall increase in the share of LNG in the structure of gas imports to the EU. “The share of LNG in gas imports to the EU grew from 37% to 45%. If the EU imported 297 million cubic meters of LNG daily during the first nine months of 2024, the same period in 2025 saw imports rise to 376 million cubic meters,” states Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
However, once the heating season begins, demand surges — not only in Europe but also in Asia. Asian buyers are attracting large volumes of LNG towards themselves with higher prices.
As temperatures drop in both Asia and Europe, both regions will increasingly compete for limited LNG volumes, driving up prices, concludes Yushkov.
Source: VZGLYAD
