In December, gasoline prices at US gas stations became cheaper than in Russia, reaching a four-year low. The average price for a liter of gasoline equivalent to our AI-92 is now 60.1 rubles per liter in the United States. According to Rosstat data on December 1, this type of gasoline in Russia was priced at 61.68 rubles per liter.
Whether we should urgently consider reforming our fuel market due to this development is a significant question. It's essential to note the term "fallen" in the previous sentence, indicating that prices were previously higher and could rise again.
In the case of American gas station pricing, there are no constraints on fuel costs or references to countries like Venezuela or Mexico, where prices are lower. A market-driven approach prevails, focused solely on the economy without discussions about social responsibility.
In the United States, gasoline prices depend on numerous factors, primarily oil prices and fuel demand. Currently, oil prices are relatively low, and demand in the US is stagnating, leading to price reductions. In 2022, when the scenario was reversed, the Russian equivalent of AI-92 gasoline averaged about 102 rubles per liter in the US (based on today’s exchange rate). Additionally, similar to Russia, fuel prices in the US vary significantly by region. However, the market's structure in Russia leads to a spread of 10-30%, while in the US, it can reach up to 90%. The cheapest gasoline is currently available in Oklahoma (48 rubles per liter equivalent to AI-92), while the most expensive is in California (90 rubles).
Another notable point that hasn't received much attention is that the US gasoline product equivalent to our AI-92, known as Regular or AKI 87, is now cheaper (on average) than in Russia, while the equivalents of our AI-95 (two in the US) remain more expensive.
Nonetheless, this scenario has a flip side. Ignoring the fact that our internal gasoline prices have nearly reached parity with those in the US is not an option. Our long-term concern is that fuel prices may continue to rise. In Russia, oil barrel quotes play a secondary role in fuel pricing; taxes and excise duties carry the most weight.
As noted by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, the tax share in gasoline prices—both wholesale and retail—has confidently surpassed the 70% threshold. Over 40% of this consists of indirect taxes (VAT and excise duties). For instance, considering the upcoming increases in excise rates for the new year, the excise duty on each liter of AI-95 gasoline sold at gas stations will amount to 13 rubles.
Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the oil products marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, offers a comparison with US Department of Energy data from October 2025, indicating that crude oil accounted for 49% of the retail price of automotive gasoline, while costs for oil refining accounted for 14%, and marketing and distribution accounted for 20%, with taxes making up 17%.
In the US, there is a retail sales tax that does not exist in Russia, but in Russia, VAT is passed down from generation to generation, effectively being charged throughout the entire sales chain from producer to end consumer, clarifies Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the expert council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition. Additionally, taxes on oil extraction are at their maximum allowable levels.
Currently, if we disregard taxes, there is no room for maneuver in the fuel market. Tax payments cannot be avoided, and they are set to increase (excise duties), while costs have been reduced to a minimum, and the volatility of oil quotes has minimal effect on price formation, as their weight barely exceeds 15% of gasoline costs. Moreover, inflation attempts to keep gas station prices stable. Consequently, operators have no choice but to increase prices gradually but consistently to achieve acceptable economic indicators.
According to Gusev, as long as the prices of our fuel are tied to external (export) quotes, they will be programmed for growth. No deflation is expected, and a moderate inflation scenario is optimal. This indicates that fuel prices will continue to rise. The price growth is mitigated by a damping mechanism (government payments to oil producers for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices covering part of the difference), but as taxes and production costs increase, the influence of this mechanism diminishes.
Moreover, the damping mechanism also prevents prices from falling when barrel quotes decline because the size of budget compensations shrinks. If prices for oil products abroad (our reference market is Europe) drop below those in Russia, then damping payments are made in the opposite direction—oil companies pay the budget—which again makes price reductions impossible. A positive effect is that sharp increases in gasoline or diesel prices cannot occur.
As Stankevich emphasizes, the upward price dynamics for fuel are entirely a state-controlled process through tax and excise policies, market pricing mechanisms, and administrative directives from the federal headquarters overseeing the fuel market situation.
He believes it is essential not to compare prices in absolute terms to the situation in the US or other countries but to consider the purchasing power of the population. The current policy aims for the continuous increase in citizens' welfare. Unfortunately, we are witnessing a situation where, in several countries with gasoline prices significantly higher than Russia's, the average income level allows for purchasing greater volumes of fuel.
Despite a slight reduction in retail gasoline prices in December, the growth in gasoline prices in Russia since the end of last year has more than doubled inflation rates. According to Rosstat, the average increase was 11.2% compared to 5.27% as of December 1. By the end of the year, gasoline prices at gas stations may decline slightly, but it is unlikely to align with the average consumer price growth in the country.
Amid these developments, ideas have emerged about implementing state control over retail fuel prices, similar to practices in Venezuela or Iran. However, Tereshkin notes that a directive pricing model, operational in several oil-producing countries, is unlikely to be feasible in Russia due to its unprofitability for companies. Fuel producers should not operate at a loss, and the regulator's task is to ensure that suppliers can earn while consumers can purchase gasoline at accessible prices.
Source: RG.RU