Since the end of last year, according to Rosstat, retail prices for gasoline have increased by 1.2%, while diesel fuel (DF) prices have risen by 1.3%. The Moscow Fuel Association (MTA) reports an even greater price increase at refueling stations in the capital: during the same period, prices for all types of fuel rose by approximately 1.8% (over one ruble).
The reasons for this price increase did not require extensive investigation, as it was anticipated. Starting January 2026, excise taxes on gasoline and DF were raised by 5.1%, and their share in the price is about 20%. Additionally, VAT increased by 2%, which, as is well known, is collected in Russia with each sale of goods. The supply chain for fuel at filling stations rarely involves only one seller and one buyer.
Meanwhile, in the wholesale segment, and on the exchange, the situation remains relatively calm. Quotations have decreased from their October peaks and are now at levels seen in the spring of last year. Consequently, we are interested in whether retail prices have fully accounted for the increased tax burden and what will happen to them next.
As explained by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, the course to maintain the dynamics of retail prices for gasoline and diesel within the corridor defined by inflation parameters remains unchanged. "I do not see any prerequisites for sharp price jumps at this time," he told "RG".
However, Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, believes that the rise in the fiscal burden has only been partially absorbed. The VAT increase applies not only to fuel but also to all services, including transportation. The volumes under the new tariffs and with the new VAT are only just being dispatched, indicating that there is still potential for growth. The question is what is meant by stabilization. Given current conditions, we have a programmed steady rise in prices for gasoline and diesel within inflation parameters.
According to Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, retail prices have absorbed no more than 50% of the increase in the tax burden. A smooth rise is expected to continue until the start of the high season, after which price increases will be driven by rising demand, and its magnitude will depend on the balance of supply and demand.
Additionally, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, stated that the price increase at filling stations at the beginning of the year was tied not only to the indexing of fuel excise taxes but also to the retail networks' attempts to recover losses from November-December 2025, when gasoline prices fell for over a month and a half.
The fuel market has not yet fully adjusted to the rising tax burden. Tereshkin clarifies that the increase in VAT to 22% is significant, but it is not the determining factor for the fuel market. More critical will be the payments for the damping mechanism (compensation to oil companies from the budget for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels). There are no prerequisites for their increase, as subsidies are tied to external (export) prices for petroleum products, which are falling in line with declining oil prices. For instance, the price of the export alternative AI-92 dropped from 69,166 rubles per ton in November 2025 to 57,471 rubles per ton in December 2025 (this figure is assessed by regulators when evaluating payments for the damping mechanism). As a result, subsidies for fuel producers may reach a multi-year low in early 2026.
The importance of damping payments to companies can be gauged by the events of the 2023 fuel crisis. During that time, an attempt to cut these payments by half led to uncontrollable price increases at filling stations. There are also data for 2024 indicating that the share of damping payments in the revenue of "Gazprom Neft" was 44%. In 2024, the company received 1.8 trillion rubles from the budget via the damping mechanism. Payments decreased in 2025 and are unlikely to exceed 1 trillion rubles (statistics for December are still pending).
According to media reports, the initiative for direct fuel sales to small wholesale buyers (filling stations, agricultural producers, and industrial consumers) is currently under consideration to reduce the number of fuel resales and expedite logistics.
Stankevich notes that the FAS and the St. Petersburg Exchange are striving to improve the rules for public trading in fuel, reducing the number of intermediaries in transactions and introducing norms for sales in the small wholesale segment. "Exchange mechanisms are currently not ideal, especially considering that the price indicators for crude oil we operate with are established on foreign platforms. However, abandoning exchange trading would be a significant step backward without an alternative. We have no other intermediary capable of presenting an objective picture regarding pricing based on supply and demand."
From Frolov's perspective, this will be undoubtedly advantageous for independent filling stations (over half of the filling stations in Russia), as it will provide an additional procurement channel. However, he believes it will not significantly impact retail prices or the wholesale exchange segment.
Gusev believes that until it is possible to reduce the cost of accessing services for end consumers of fuel on the exchange, it is unrealistic to eliminate traders (resellers).
Tereshkin expressed a similar opinion, noting that the idea of direct sales to wholesale buyers is unlikely to have much impact; a more effective solution would be to increase the regulatory standards for exchange sales of gasoline and diesel. However, the very fact that regulators are seeking new ideas in a situation where industry regulation revolves around damping payments and export bans year after year is important. Regulators are looking for a way to lower prices "off-exchange," so we are likely to see further initiatives in the coming months, the expert is confident.
Source: RG.RU