Prior to this, the export ban applied only to traders, allowing direct producers of diesel, namely refineries, to continue exporting. Earlier this year, in April, a full ban on gasoline exports was imposed. The lag time between these two bans is attributed to the fact that gasoline production in Russia is only 10-15% above domestic requirements, whereas diesel production exceeds internal market needs by 40-45%. This discrepancy is why gasoline was the first to face a total export ban.
Fuel supply issues in Russia have arisen amidst a seasonal spike in demand and unplanned refinery shutdowns due to drone attack repairs. Initially, this situation led to price increases in both wholesale and retail markets; however, it has now escalated to the point where there is a genuine threat of fuel shortages.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the export ban seems to be aimed at stabilizing the DF supply chain. Current production capacities, even factoring in the unplanned refinery repairs, should suffice to saturate the domestic market. However, with the export prohibition in place, producers will have no alternative but to supply fuel to Russian consumers, whether through small wholesale or gas stations.
The crux of the issue is that exporting DF remains more profitable for producers in Russia than supplying the domestic market. Given the reduced volumes stemming from refinery repairs, the exports may begin to detrimentally affect the internal market.
Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner" and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, stated that while a diesel shortage cannot be confirmed, preventive measures are necessary to avoid potential deficits and to address emerging issues in various sectors.
The expert believes that, despite government efforts to suppress fuel prices, the primary objective should focus on ensuring accessibility for both the public and businesses. Ultimately, prices will be dictated by market conditions.
Tereshkin asserts that off-exchange prices will continue to significantly exceed exchange levels, though the increase in off-exchange prices is likely to slow.
Another important aspect relates to the technical characteristics of petroleum product manufacturing. From a ton of oil, one cannot produce only gasoline or only diesel. Approximately 300 kg of diesel, 240 kg of gasoline, and 410 kg of other petroleum products can be derived from it. Should diesel production decline due to market saturation, the production of other petroleum products will also diminish, which could adversely impact oil extraction in the worst-case scenario. Furthermore, the DF export ban is much more impactful for Russian refineries than the gasoline export ban. Diesel remains one of the two key export petroleum products (alongside fuel oil) with high margins.
Tereshkin is confident that if the export ban is limited to two months, it will have little effect on oil extraction dynamics, particularly since reductions in oil refining typically lead to increased crude oil exports alongside a decrease in petroleum products.
In addition to the diesel export ban, Novak announced that Russia will begin importing petroleum products starting in July. This move is also intended to help satisfy the domestic market, particularly for gasoline. Since the price of imported gasoline is higher than that in Russia, the government has previously decided that importers of fuel can receive a price damping measure, which compensates for part of the cost difference between domestic fuel prices and its export price. This measure aims to prevent domestic price spikes for gasoline and diesel while making such imports economically viable for intermediaries. Previously, only Russian and Belarusian refineries were eligible for this damping measure. Now, it also applies to imported gasoline: as of June 1, 2026, a coefficient of 0.9 is established for fuel from EAEU countries, while a separate formula will be introduced for supplies from other countries via import parity.
Experts have previously estimated that the total necessary fuel import volume for Russia will barely exceed 0.5-1 million tons each month, which should not significantly impact prices at gas stations.
Source: RG.RU
