Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy for Wednesday, February 25, 2026: Brent Oil at Max Levels, OPEC+ Decisions, European Gas and LNG Market, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity and Renewables. A Global Overview for Investors and Industry Participants.
The oil market remains highly sensitive to news, with Brent hovering around $72 per barrel (WTI approximately $67), reflecting recent highs. The key driver is the anticipation of the next round of U.S.–Iran negotiations in Geneva and the associated risk of deteriorating navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz. A geopolitical premium is again noticeable in oil prices, manifesting not only in futures but also in delivery costs.
Meanwhile, the fundamental picture for 2026 remains moderately oversupplied: forecasts indicate that global supply will grow faster than demand, with a significant accumulation of inventories observed in 2025 — including increases in "floating oil" and the share of sanctioned flows. This does not negate the geopolitical rally, but raises the likelihood that the market will "trade headlines" without transitioning into a sustainable shortage unless there are real disruptions to production and exports.
- OPEC+: In March, there is a pause in increasing production; the focus is on the meeting on March 1 and the likelihood of cautiously resuming quota increases from April.
- Demand: Uncertainty is amplified by new U.S. trade barriers and their impact on global industrial and shipping rates.
- Short-term Risks: Winter weather, emergency repairs, and export restrictions in certain supplying countries.
Freight and Logistics: Tanker Rates Becoming a Standalone Risk Factor
The maritime logistics market has effectively become a "second front" for oil. Freight rates for transporting Middle Eastern oil to Asia have surged to multi-year highs due to a combination of increased exports from the Persian Gulf and U.S.–Iran geopolitical risk. The deficit of available "clean" tonnage is exacerbated by sanctions and the aging fleet segment servicing sanctioned flows, reducing vessel supply in a transparent market.
A practical consequence for oil and gas companies and traders is the reassessment of arbitrage economics: high freight and insurance costs can negate the profitability of raw material and oil product shipments, even where exchange spreads appear attractive. As a result, some volatility is shifting from the "paper" curve to physical differentials and basis premiums on key routes from the Middle East to Asia.
Oil Products and Refineries: Strong Winter Demand Amid Seasonal Maintenance
The oil product segment traditionally exhibits sensitivity to weather and technical risks at the end of winter. In the U.S., recent weekly figures indicate significant reductions in inventories of oil, gasoline, and distillates due to high refinery utilization (around 91%) and increased consumption — supporting oil products and decreasing the likelihood of sharp price drops, all else being equal. Simultaneously, the maintenance season necessitates that the market closely monitor any unplanned outages at major refineries.
For Europe, additional stress tests arise from the uncertainty of sanctions surrounding certain refining assets and raw material logistics: financing, insurance, and long-term contract restrictions could quickly transform into local imbalances concerning gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. For global traders, this implies an increased role for regional premiums and product quality, while fuel companies must maintain more flexible supply chains.
- Diesel and Distillates: This segment often dictates the "nerves" in the oil product market during winter.
- Refineries and Maintenance: Maintenance schedules have become a price factor as significant as oil prices.
- Fuel Logistics: Financial and insurance constraints increasingly influence supply availability alongside physical capacities.
Gas and LNG: Europe Receiving Record Volumes, but Storage at One-Third
The European natural gas market concludes winter with a high share of LNG in the balance. February is set for record arrivals of LNG in Europe: the main volumes are supplied by the U.S., while Russian LNG remains a noticeable source. The primary concern shifts to the injection season: underground storage is estimated to be about one-third full by the end of February — below the seasonal norm, heightening the sensitivity of European prices to weather conditions and Asian spot prices.
Structurally, the market supports the growth of global LNG supply: an acceleration in the introduction of new capacities and an increase in global production/export, primarily driven by North America, is anticipated, with additional growth expected in the Middle East in the longer term. However, Asia remains a "switch": the return of China and major buyers to the spot market could quickly divert marginal shipments and elevate European volatility. In the U.S., the winter profile is confirmed by significant weekly withdrawals from storage, maintaining focus on Henry Hub as well as the LNG export balance.
Pipelines and Sanctions: Druzhba, Central Europe, and the EU’s Decision to "Embed" a Ban on Russian Oil
Transit risks remain one of the most underestimated drivers of volatility. The Druzhba pipeline, amid damages and delays in transit restoration, has turned into a source of political pressure: Hungary and Slovakia publicly link support for Ukraine to the resumption of supplies, activate strategic reserves, and reassess their roles in ensuring the Ukrainian energy system.
Concurrently, the European Union is preparing a legal mechanism to cement a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the end of 2027, making it resilient to potential changes in the sanctions regime. For global oil trading, this means increased competition for "non-Russian" barrels on the horizon for 2026–2027, enhanced importance of alternative routes (Middle East, North Sea, Africa, U.S., Latin America), and the maintenance of discounts/premiums depending on the sanctions status of shipments.
The United Kingdom has announced its largest sanctions package since 2022, affecting infrastructure and elements of "shadow" logistics. Such decisions typically operate through secondary effects — insurance, financing, vessel availability, and services — and can therefore influence oil, oil products, and delivery costs simultaneously.
Electricity, Renewables, and Grids: Growth in Wind and Solar Amid "Weather Gaps"
European electricity continues its energy transition: in 2025, wind and solar surpassed fossil generation in output share for the first time, with low-carbon sources (renewables and nuclear) forming the core of the balance. However, the efficiency of this structure increasingly depends on grids, storage, and demand flexibility: insufficient capacity leads to forced curtailment of renewable generation, while periods of weak wind raise demand for gas and coal generation — and consequently, for fuels and carbon quotas.
A separate layer of risk is the weather. Germany, the largest wind energy producer in Europe, is experiencing a protracted period of weak winds; forecasts indicate a likelihood of below-normal generation in the first quarter of 2026. In practice, this results in increased intraday volatility in the electricity market and heightened demand for gas, coal, and balancing capacity. The European Commission is discussing measures to accelerate investments in grids and energy efficiency, including mechanisms to mobilize private capital for infrastructure projects.
What is Important for Investors and Market Participants on February 25
Tomorrow, the market will be recalibrating risk premiums in real time. For oil and gas companies, refiners, energy sectors, and traders, this is a day when "minor" signals (statements, repair timelines, weather forecasts) can significantly impact money in spreads and logistics.
- U.S.–Iran: Any hint of de-escalation/escalation affects Brent, freight, and insurance premiums in the Persian Gulf.
- Druzhba and the EU: The status of transit and decisions in Central Europe will determine regional premiums for raw materials and fuel.
- Gas and LNG: The pace of deliveries to Europe and Asia's willingness to pay spot premiums are key to TTF volatility.
- Oil Products and Refineries: During the maintenance season, any disruption quickly reflects on diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
- Electricity: Wind and temperature forecasts remain the best quick indicators of demand for gas and coal generation.
