Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, January 24, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets, and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies.
The current events in the fuel and energy sector (EES) as of January 24, 2026, draw the attention of investors and market participants due to their magnitude and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tensions remain high: the U.S. and EU are intensifying sanction pressure in the energy sector, leading to a further redistribution of global oil and gas flows. At the same time, there is a mixed picture in the global energy markets. Oil prices have stabilized at moderate levels after falling in 2025 – North Sea Brent is holding around $63–65 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $59–61. This is noticeably lower than levels a year ago (about $15–20 cheaper than in January 2025), reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and restrained demand. Meanwhile, the European gas market is facing harsh winter conditions: rapid withdrawals from underground storage have pushed reserves below 50% capacity, causing prices to spike about 30% since the beginning of the month. However, the situation is far from the energy crisis of 2022 – accumulated reserves and LNG inflows are allowing the higher demand to be met, keeping price growth in check. The global energy transition, meanwhile, is gaining momentum: many regions are recording new records in renewable energy generation, although to ensure the reliability of energy systems, countries still rely on traditional resources. In Russia, after last year's spike in fuel prices, authorities have extended emergency measures – including export restrictions and subsidies – into early 2026 to stabilize the domestic oil product market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: OPEC+ Holds Production Amid Oversupply Risks
Global oil prices are maintaining relative stability at relatively low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. Brent is currently trading around $63–65 per barrel, while WTI is within the $59–61 range. Current quotes are 15–20% lower than a year ago, reflecting market saturation after the peaks of 2022–2023 and moderate demand. The dynamics of oil prices are simultaneously influenced by a number of key factors:
- OPEC+ Policy: Concerned about a potential oversupply, the alliance of leading exporters is adopting a cautious approach. In early January 2026, OPEC+ members confirmed they would maintain existing production limits at least until the end of Q1. Major countries (including Saudi Arabia and Russia) extended voluntary cuts, aiming to prevent market saturation in a seasonally low-demand environment. This move indicates a desire to maintain price stability and marks a shift from the increases in production observed a year earlier.
- Weak Demand Growth: The growth of global oil consumption remains modest. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand is expected to increase by only ~0.9 million barrels/day in 2026 (compared to ~2.5 million barrels/day in 2023). OPEC predicts a growth of +1.1 million barrels/day. Such moderate expectations are linked to slowing global economic growth and the effects of high prices in previous years, which encouraged energy conservation. Structural factors, such as slower industrial growth in China and saturation of post-pandemic demand, also play a role.
- Rising Inventories and Non-OPEC Supply: In 2025, global oil inventories rose significantly – analysts report that commercial crude oil and product stocks were increasing by an average of 1–1.5 million barrels per day. This resulted from active production growth outside of OPEC, particularly in the U.S. and Brazil. The American oil industry reached record production levels (around 13 million barrels/day), while Brazil increased supplies through the commissioning of new offshore fields. The excessive supply led to the formation of a 'buffer' in the form of high inventories, which are pressuring prices, despite sporadic disruptions (such as temporary export cuts from Kazakhstan or local conflicts in the Middle East).
The cumulative effect of these factors keeps the oil market in a state close to oversupply. Brent and WTI quotes fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking impetus for either a new growth spurt or a significant decline. Some investment banks predict that if current trends continue, the average price for Brent in 2026 may fall into the $50 range. Nevertheless, market participants continue to closely monitor geopolitical events – sanctions, the situation in specific oil-producing countries – which could potentially alter the balance of supply and demand.
Gas Market: Europe Faces Freezing Temperatures, Prices Rising
The gas market is currently focused on Europe, which at the start of the year is undergoing a severe winter test. By the start of the heating season, European countries had high reserves: underground gas storage (UGS) was nearly 100% full by December 2025. However, prolonged frosts in January 2026 have led to accelerated withdrawals from these reserves – by the end of the month, the total level of UGS in the EU fell below 50%. Such rapid gas withdrawals have not been seen for several years, and the market responded with rising prices. Futures at the TTF hub soared to ~€40/MWh (about $500 per 1,000 m³), compared to trading around €30/MWh in December.
Despite the significant surge, current gas prices remain several times lower than the peaks during the 2022 crisis, when prices exceeded €300/MWh. The European market is relatively resilient to demand shocks, thanks to the measures taken and external supplies. In the midst of the cold snap, a substantial volume of liquefied natural gas continues to arrive: LNG tankers are being redirected to Europe, compensating for reductions in the fuel withdrawn from storage. At the same time, gas demand has increased in other regions – in North America and Asia – where abnormal cold weather is also being observed. This has led to a global rally in gas prices: in the US, Henry Hub prices reached their highest since 2022, while the Asian spot index JKM climbed to levels seen at the end of last year. Nevertheless, thanks to established logistics and diversified sourcing, Europe is currently avoiding gas shortages: even with reduced inventories, supplies continue from various countries (Norway, North Africa, Qatar, the U.S., etc.), smoothing the impact of the cessation of pipeline gas imports from Russia.
Experts point out that after an extremely cold January, European storage facilities may finish the winter at significantly lower levels than last year. This will create a new task of refilling them ahead of the next heating season, potentially supporting prices. At the same time, the launch of several new LNG projects worldwide in 2026–2027 is expected to increase supply and alleviate pressure on the market in the medium term. In the coming weeks, the situation in the gas market will depend on the weather: if February turns out to be milder, price growth will likely slow down, and the remaining inventories will be sufficient without issues. Thus, even amid the current winter stress, the European gas sector is demonstrating adaptability, navigating seasonal demand peaks without panic, albeit at somewhat increased prices.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Export Reorientation
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the West is not easing the sanction pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector – rather, new restrictive measures are being implemented. The European Union agreed in December 2025 to a plan for a complete and permanent cessation of imports of Russian energy resources: specifically, imports of pipeline gas from Russia should be reduced to zero by the end of 2026, and dependence on Russian LNG is also planned to be eliminated gradually. Additionally, the EU imposed a ban on importing oil products produced from Russian crude at foreign refineries – this measure aims to close loopholes through which Russian oil was indirectly entering the European market in the form of fuel that was refined in third countries.
The United States, for its part, is stepping up rhetoric and preparing for new actions. The U.S. administration is considering additional sanctions against several countries and companies that help Moscow circumvent existing restrictions. Washington is openly warning major purchasing countries (such as China and India) against increasing imports of Russian oil. Initiatives to impose heavy tariffs on goods from countries that actively trade with Russia in energy resources are being promoted in Congress. Although these proposals are still under discussion, the very fact of the increasing pressure raises uncertainties in global oil and gas trade.
In response, Russia continues to reorient its export flows towards friendly markets. Oil and LNG supplies to Asia remain at high levels: China, India, Turkey, and several other countries are among the largest purchasers of Russian hydrocarbons, benefiting from price discounts. Alternative currencies (yuan, rupee) and payment schemes that reduce dependence on the dollar and euro are increasingly being used for settlements. Simultaneously, the Russian government has announced plans to develop its tanker fleet and insurance mechanisms to minimize the impact of Western sanctions on oil export logistics. An important event has also been the partial normalization of relations between Russia, Venezuela, and Iran: these oil-producing nations are coordinating their positions in the market, aiming to jointly counter U.S. sanction pressure.
Thus, the international arena remains a confrontation that influences energy markets. Sanctions and countermeasures are creating a new configuration of oil and gas flows: the share of exports to the West is declining, while the Asia-Pacific region is gaining increasing significance. Investors are assessing the risks: on one hand, further escalation of sanctions could lead to disruptions and price fluctuations, while on the other, any hints of dialogue or compromise (such as extension of deals for export through intermediaries or humanitarian exceptions) could improve market sentiment. For now, the baseline scenario – a continuation of the hardline stance by the West and exporters’ adaptation to new realities – is already accounted for in prices and forecasts.
Asia: India and China Balancing Import and Domestic Production
- India: New Delhi is striving to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports while also navigating external pressures. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, India has sharply increased purchases of affordable Russian oil, ensuring the domestic market has access to cheap raw materials. However, in 2025, facing the threat of Western sanctions and tariffs, the Indian government somewhat reduced the share of Russia in oil imports, increasing supplies from the Middle East and other regions. Simultaneously, India is betting on developing its own resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National program for the exploration of deepwater oil and gas fields. Under this initiative, the state company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells on the shelf, aiming to uncover new reserves. Concurrently, the country is rapidly advancing renewable energy (solar and wind power) and infrastructure for imported LNG to diversify its energy balance. Nevertheless, oil and gas remain the cornerstones of India's fuel and energy balance, crucial for industrial and transport activities. India is compelled to carefully balance between the benefits of importing cheap fuel and the risks of sanction restrictions from the West.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues on its course toward self-sufficiency in energy, combining increased traditional resource extraction with record investments in clean energy. In 2025, China raised its internal oil and coal production to historic highs in an effort to satisfy rapidly rising demand and reduce import dependence. Simultaneously, the share of coal in electricity generation in China has fallen to a multi-year low (~55%), as vast new capacities for solar, wind, and hydroelectric plants are being introduced. Analysts estimate that during the first half of 2025, China added more renewable generating capacity than the rest of the world combined. This even allowed for a reduction in absolute fossil fuel consumption within the country. However, in absolute terms, China’s appetite for energy resources remains colossal: in 2025, oil and gas imports remained one of the key sources to meet needs, especially in transport, industry, and chemicals. Beijing continues to actively sign long-term contracts for LNG supply while also developing nuclear energy, viewing it as an essential element of the energy balance. It is expected that in the new 15th five-year development plan (2026-2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for increasing the share of low-carbon energy. However, it is clear that the authorities intend to maintain sufficient reserve capacities in traditional thermal power plants – the Chinese leadership will not allow energy shortages, given the experiences of power outages over the past decade. Thus, China is proceeding along two parallel courses: on one hand, it is rapidly implementing clean technologies for the future, while on the other hand, it maintains a solid foundation of oil, gas, and coal to ensure energy system resilience today.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and Balance with Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate, affirming its irreversibility. New records were achieved in 2025 in the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). According to preliminary estimates from industry analysts, the combined generation from solar and wind on a global scale for the first time surpassed electricity production from all coal-fired power plants combined. This historic milestone was made possible thanks to an explosive growth in RES capacities: for instance, global solar generation increased by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, while wind generation rose nearly 10%. These new "green" kilowatt-hours managed to cover a significant portion of the growth in global electricity demand, allowing in some regions to reduce fossil fuel burning.
However, the rapid development of renewable energy also comes with challenges. The main one is ensuring the reliability of energy systems with variable sources. During periods when demand growth exceeds the input of "green" capacities or weather reduces output (calm periods, droughts, extreme cold spells), countries are forced to resort to traditional generation to balance the grid. For example, in 2025, economic revival in the United States led to a temporary increase in electricity generation at coal-fired plants, as the existing RES proved insufficient to cover all additional demand. In Europe, weak winds and reduced hydropower resources during the summer and fall of 2025 necessitated a temporary increase in gas and coal burning to maintain energy supplies. By winter 2026, severe cold in both North America and Eurasia drove electricity consumption for heating up – traditional gas and coal stations urgently ramped up generation to compensate for falling RES output. These cases underscore that as long as solar and wind share remains unstable, coal, gas, and, in some places, nuclear capacities play a key role as insurance, covering peaks in demand and preventing outages.
Energy companies and governments around the world are actively investing in solutions designed to smooth variability in "green" generation. Industrial energy storage systems (powerful batteries, pumped storage facilities) are being built, electric grids are being modernized, and intelligent demand management systems are being implemented. All of this enhances the flexibility and resilience of energy systems. However, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid. The rapid growth of RES is proceeding alongside the significant role played by oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which ensure basic stability. Experts forecast that it won't be until the end of this decade that the share of fossil resources in generation begins to confidently decline, as colossal new RES capacities are introduced and climate initiatives are realized. For now, traditional and renewable sources are working in tandem, providing both progress in decarbonization and uninterrupted energy supply for the economy.
Coal: Steady Demand Despite Climate Goals
The global coal market demonstrates how inertia in resource consumption can be. Despite active decarbonization efforts, coal usage around the planet remains at record high levels. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, global demand for coal increased by approximately 0.5%, reaching about 8.85 billion tons – a historical high. The majority of the growth is coming from Asian countries. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, electricity generation at coal-fired plants, although reduced in relative terms thanks to record RES input, remains colossal in absolute volumes. Moreover, fearing energy deficits, Beijing approved the construction of several new coal-fired power plants in 2025, aiming to create reserve capacities. India and Southeast Asian countries are also continuing to actively burn coal to meet their growing energy needs, as alternative generation in many of them is not keeping pace with economic growth.
After sharp price spikes in 2022, the coal market transitioned to relative stability in 2025. Energy coal prices at key Asian hubs (for example, Australian Newcastle) remained significantly below the peak levels of the crisis period, although still somewhat above pre-crisis levels. This price environment is encouraging major producing countries to maintain high levels of production and coal exports. Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa – these leading exporters have increased supply in recent years, helping to meet high demand and preventing market shortages. International experts believe that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of this decade and then start to decline as climate policies strengthen and coal generation is substituted by renewable energy. However, in the short term, coal continues to be a key part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base electricity generation and heat for industry, so until a full replacement is available, coal-fired power plants continue to play an irreplaceable role in sustaining the economy.
Russian Oil Product Market: Continued Measures to Stabilize Prices
In the domestic fuel sector of Russia, by early 2026, a relative stabilization has emerged, achieved through unprecedented government measures. Back in August–September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in the country hit historical records, exceeding levels during the 2023 crisis. The reasons included a combination of high summer demand (peak transportation and harvesting season) and tightening fuel supply – among the factors were unscheduled repairs and accidents at several major oil refineries (including due to drone attacks), which reduced gasoline output. Confronted with the threat of shortages and price shocks for consumers, authorities quickly intervened in market mechanisms, launching an emergency normalization plan:
- Export Ban: In mid-August 2025, the Russian government imposed a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, applying it to all producers – from independent mini-refineries to the largest oil companies. This measure, extended several times (most recently until the end of February 2026), returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel to the domestic market that had previously been exported every month.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market became saturated, strict restrictions began to be gradually relaxed. Large oil refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict state control, while for smaller traders and intermediaries, export barriers largely remained. Thus, the export channel was opened in a measured way to prevent a new spike in domestic prices. In fact, at the start of 2026, the export of oil products from Russia remains partially restricted – authorities are deliberately holding back fuel volumes in the domestic market to ensure its saturation.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the steps taken was to enhance control over the movement of oil products within the country. Producers were obligated to first close domestic market needs and prohibited the practice of mutual exchange purchases between companies (previously, these transactions contributed to rising exchange prices). The government, together with relevant authorities (Ministry of Energy, Federal Antimonopoly Service), developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas stations, bypassing exchange intermediaries. This is intended to ensure a more direct and fair path for fuel to retail gas stations and prevent speculative price increases.
- Subsidies and Dampener: Financial instruments have been employed to restrain prices. The government has increased budgetary subsidies to oil refining enterprises and expanded the application of the dampening mechanism (reverse excise tax), which compensates companies for lost income when redirecting products to the domestic market instead of export. These payments incentivize oil companies to send sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to Russian gas stations without fearing significant losses due to missed export revenues.
The complex of these measures has already yielded tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from their peak levels, and the growth of retail prices at gas stations has been moderate – throughout 2025, gasoline and diesel rose in price by an average of 5–6%, roughly within the overall inflation rate. The domestic fuel shortage has been avoided: gas stations across the country, including in remote rural areas during peak harvest times, were supplied with fuel. The Russian government states that it will continue to keep the situation under strict control. At the first signs of new imbalances, fresh restrictions on exports may be promptly introduced or fuel interventions from state reserves conducted. For EES market participants, such a policy signifies relative predictability in domestic prices, although oil product exporters have to contend with partial restrictions. Overall, stabilizing the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that even amid external challenges – sanctions and volatility in global prices – it will be possible to maintain domestic gasoline and diesel prices within acceptable bounds, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
