Oil and Gas News and Energy, Saturday, February 14, 2026: OPEC+ Leans Toward Production Increase Starting April, Oil Prices Under Pressure
As of February 13, 2026 (exact time of reporting not specified), the global energy market has entered a phase of reevaluation: expectations for a return to production growth by OPEC+ starting in April have intensified pressure on oil prices, while EIA statistics revealed a significant increase in oil inventories in the U.S. Concurrently, the IEA maintains a cautious tone regarding demand in its February report, warning of the risk of oversupply in 2026. For investors in the oil, gas, and energy sectors, this shifts the focus toward refinery margins stability, the supply chains for petroleum products, and the quality of investments in electricity and renewable energy sources (RES).
- Oil: Brent around $67/barrel, WTI around $62-63/barrel; the market is pricing in higher supply for the second quarter.
- Gas: TTF around €32/MWh; Europe enters the storage refill season with low inventory levels (exact as of February 13 - unspecified).
- Electricity: For delivery on February 14, prices remain in three-digit ranges in certain areas — grid investments and connection regulations become key drivers for RES.
Oil Market: OPEC+, Demand, and Expectations for 2026
The key news for the oil market was discussions within OPEC+ regarding a return to production growth starting April 2026 following a pause in January-March. The market interprets this as an effort to pre-emptively "secure" market share ahead of summer demand, even if the balance for the second quarter appears softer than seasonal norms. Additionally, the IEA estimates global demand growth in 2026 at approximately 850,000 barrels per day, while global supply is expected to increase by around 2.4 million barrels per day. This raises price sensitivity to actual export flows and quota compliance, which is critical for hedging strategies and investments in production.
For upstream investments, this means higher cost and cash flow stability requirements. "Long-term" projects are evaluated more stringently, and the market increasingly favors companies with strong free cash flow and predictable capital policies. Geopolitics (Middle East) remains a source of volatility, but its contribution to prices as of February 13, 2026, is unspecified.
Prices and Indicators for February 13-14
- Brent Oil: around $67/barrel.
- WTI Oil: around $62-63/barrel.
- TTF Gas (Europe): around €32/MWh.
- Henry Hub Gas (U.S.): around $3.17/MMBtu.
- JKM LNG (Asia): around $11/MMBtu.
- Newcastle Coal: around $115-116/ton.
- Electricity (Nord Pool, delivery on February 14): Germany ~€103.5/MWh; Netherlands ~€95/MWh; France ~€34/MWh; other zones - unspecified.
- EU ETS (carbon): around €73/ton CO₂ as of February 12; as of February 13 - unspecified.
U.S.: Inventories, Refineries, and Signals for Petroleum Products
U.S. EIA statistics set the tone for discussions surrounding the physical market. For the week ending February 6, commercial oil inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels. Refineries processed approximately 16.0 million barrels per day, with utilization rates around 89%. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories grew by 1.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks decreased by 2.7 million barrels.
For the "petroleum products" segment, this indicates a diverging balance: while oil inventories remain comfortable, the market may face localized pressure on diesel and jet fuel, especially if seasonal weather boosts demand. This is significant for investors, as refinery margins and exports of petroleum products from the U.S. to Europe often serve as a "buffer" for the global fuel market.
Refineries and Petroleum Products: Operational Events and Market Impact
Operational risks in refining are back in focus. Reports indicate that the Volgograd refinery in Russia halted operations following a fire caused by a drone attack, damaging a major primary processing unit. While this has an indirect impact on the global oil market, such incidents increase risk premiums for the regional petroleum products balance (particularly diesel) and could boost import demand, potentially supporting margins for European refineries.
In Europe, sanction compliance changes even operational models: TotalEnergies has assumed full operational control over the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands while maintaining a stake in Lukoil, centralizing raw material procurement and product sales under one management framework. In Africa, a significant signal comes from Nigeria: Dangote has resumed operations at a major atmospheric distillation unit, with a test start-up of a gasoline block expected in the coming days — this potentially strengthens petroleum product import substitution in the region and alters regional oil demand.
Gas and LNG: Europe Between Storage Refill and New Supply Regime
The European gas market remains sensitive to inventories and competition for LNG. TTF stabilizes around €32/MWh, but for investors, the trajectory of storage refill is more crucial: public estimates indicate that the fill level of European storages is around 35-36% (exact value as of February 13, 2026, unspecified). Additionally, the EU has confirmed a phased ban on Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 (LNG earlier), solidifying Europe’s structural dependence on the global LNG market and enhancing the value of flexible supply.
In Asia, the JKM marker around $11/MMBtu reflects relatively calm demand, though supply is dependent on megaproject schedules. Reports have indicated a delay in the start of the first phase of Qatar's LNG expansion until late 2026. This situation supports a premium for "ready molecules" in Europe and Asia, highlighting the significance of investments in regasification, gas infrastructure, and the flexibility of electricity generation.
Electricity and RES: Prices, Grids, and Investment Cycle
As of February 14, electricity prices in Europe, according to Nord Pool, remain heterogeneous: Germany around €103.5/MWh, Netherlands around €95/MWh, France around €34/MWh. This variance is explained by the generation structure (nuclear, gas, RES), availability of interconnections, and grid constraints. The investment cycle in the energy sector is increasingly centered on infrastructure: in the UK, subsidy contracts for record amounts of solar generation have been issued, while the dispute between London and Paris over financing additional interconnector cables underscores that grid projects are becoming a political factor in the speed of RES integration.
On the continent, "grid costs" are rising: in Germany, discussions are underway regarding a mechanism where RES developers will bear a greater share of costs for connecting to the electric grid. For RES projects, this may result in a reevaluation of IRR and more selective site choices. France's strategy focuses on boosting decarbonized electricity (nuclear and RES) and stimulating demand electrification, which intensifies the structural demand for investments in grid and flexibility (storage, demand management).
Coal: Price Benchmark, Asia, and Carbon Risks
Coal remains a "safety net" resource in global energy, particularly in Asia. Newcastle holds around $115-116/ton, maintaining its significance for marginal electricity generation and portfolio hedging. In Europe, coal's role is defined by CO₂ pricing and energy system regime: sharp movements in EU ETS prices temporarily alter the economics of coal generation, but do not alleviate long-term funding constraints on coal assets and projects.
Regulation, Sanctions, and Forecast
Regulatory and sanctions risks remain systemic for the energy sector. In Europe, price instability for CO₂ increases uncertainty for decarbonization investments, while in the oil and gas segment, changes in sanction regimes can swiftly redistribute oil flows and feedstock for refineries (including Venezuelan routes). The baseline scenario for oil in the coming days is consolidation in the range of $65-$70 for Brent amid the dominant narrative of OPEC+ supply.
Scenarios for the Coming Days:
- Base Case: Oil within a range, gas under the influence of weather and storage dynamics, electricity impacted by grid constraints.
- Upward Risk: Infrastructure disruptions and tightening sanctions raise risk premiums for oil and diesel, supporting refining margins and petroleum product prices.
- Downward Risk: Accelerating expectations for production growth and increased availability of heavy oil exert pressure on oil and upstream investments.
Checklist for Energy Market Participants:
- OPEC+ communications ahead of the March 1 meeting;
- Weekly EIA data on oil, gas, and petroleum products;
- Dynamics of European storage and competitive situation in the LNG market (as of February 13 - unspecified);
- News on refineries (maintenance, incidents) and on petroleum product supply chains;
- Decisions on grids, interconnectors, and carbon that impact electricity and RES.
