Key topics for Monday, August 10, 2026:
- Record $510 billion for the half-year—the venture market is rewriting historical highs, but capital is concentrating within a narrow circle of mega-deals.
- Energy for AI—a new megatrend—billion-dollar rounds for Valar Atomics and Base Power indicate that "electricity for data centers" has become an independent investment class.
- The IPO parade continues—this week will see the listing of the Robinhood Ventures fund, while Moonshot AI is preparing a Hong Kong placement for approximately $3 billion.
- Record exits—in the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations exceeding $1 billion, while an additional 24 were acquired for a total of $113 billion.
- Investor selectivity is increasing—capital is flowing into projects with technological barriers and clear economics rather than "wrappers" over others' models.
- Russia and the CIS—the local market is anticipating a growth of 10-15% by the end of the year, and on August 13, the "Venture Landscape" forum will take place in Moscow.
Record Half-Year: $510 Billion and Unprecedented Capital Concentration
The first half of 2026 has become the best in the history of the venture industry. According to analysts, startups worldwide attracted $510 billion: $305 billion in the first quarter and another $205 billion in the second—making it the second-largest quarter on record. More than 70% of global funding in the second quarter went to AI companies, compared to around 50% a year earlier.
At the same time, the market is showing extreme concentration: OpenAI and Anthropic accounted for a combined $217 billion, or 43% of all venture dollars in the half-year, with Anthropic surpassing SpaceX in the ranking of the most valuable private companies in the world following a massive second-quarter round. July confirmed the trend—around $65 billion in global investments, double that of the previous year. For venture funds, this signifies a dual reality: while overall figures are record-breaking, the number of deals is growing much more slowly, and competition for quality projects outside the "magnetic field" of mega-rounds is intensifying.
Energy for AI: Nuclear Reactors and Batteries Attracting Billions
The primary investment theme in recent days has become the energy infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The power shortage for data centers has evolved from an engineering problem into a standalone venture sector with billion-dollar checks.
- Valar Atomics—a startup in small nuclear reactors raised $1 billion in a Series B round led by Sequoia Capital, complemented by a $200 million credit line from a syndicate led by JPMorgan. The company has already demonstrated a reactor powering an AI supercomputer from NVIDIA and is building a "waterless" power plant with a capacity of 30 MW for computing.
- Base Power—a Texas-based developer of home energy storage closed a Series D at $1 billion with a valuation of $13 billion featuring Ribbit Capital, Valor Equity, and a strategic unit from JPMorgan.
- Joulent—a Houston-based company raised $1.75 billion in strategic financing for energy infrastructure targeting compute-intensive industries.
It is noteworthy that alongside traditional venture funds, banks, sovereign funds, and corporations are participating in these deals. For investors, the "shovels and picks" of the AI era—chips, cooling systems, electricity generation, and storage—are becoming a way to bet on the industry's growth without overpaying for the valuations of AI labs themselves.
AI Infrastructure and Agent Platforms: Where Large Checks Are Going
In addition to energy, capital continues to flow into the infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence. Fireworks AI, which helps corporations transform general models into specialized systems, raised $1.5 billion in a Series D round. Together AI closed a Series C at $800 million led by Aramco Ventures with participation from Nvidia and General Catalyst. Safe Superintelligence, co-founded by Ilia Sutskever, garnered about $5 billion with support from Nvidia, while Travis Kalanick's startup Atoms in "physical AI" secured $1.7 billion from Andreessen Horowitz.
Another notable cluster is in agent platforms and their security. HappyRobot is raising tens of millions for automating multi-step business processes, Convex closed a Series B at $57 million aimed at databases for "AI-written" code, and Zenity secured $125 million for protecting corporate AI agents. London-based OLIX Computing, which specializes in photonic chips for inference, raised $312 million at a valuation of $3.3 billion, confirming that Europe is capable of nurturing deep tech champions.
IPO Conveyor: From Robinhood Fund to Moonshot AI
The IPO market is experiencing its best period in years. Since the beginning of the year, over a hundred IPOs have been conducted, with the amount raised surpassing $34 billion by the end of May—a 164% increase compared to the previous year. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations over $1 billion—setting a historical record.
The upcoming week promises several significant events:
- Robinhood Ventures—a fund providing retail investors access to private companies, including a portfolio associated with Y Combinator, will list on the NYSE on August 13 under the ticker RVII with support from Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.
- Moonshot AI—the Chinese developer of Kimi models is preparing a confidential IPO application in Hong Kong aiming to raise around $3 billion.
- Anthropic—the company has reportedly filed confidential documents for placement after achieving a valuation of $965 billion.
- SpaceX—a potential listing is being discussed for the second half of 2026 with a possible valuation of up to $1.5 trillion, amidst the fact that approximately 70% of revenue is already generated by Starlink.
For venture funds, the open exit window is a critically important signal: in the second quarter, 24 portfolio companies were sold to strategists for prices starting at $1 billion, for a total of $113 billion. Capital returns to partners are fueling a new fundraising cycle.
Selectivity as the New Norm: What Investors Are Demanding
Beneath the facade of record figures lies a tightening of selection. Rounds over $100 million account for nearly four-fifths of all AI funding, while early-stage companies are facing increasingly demanding investors. Funds are increasingly requiring:
- verified revenue and paid pilots instead of product demonstrations;
- technological barriers—proprietary data, hardware solutions, regulatory approvals;
- a clear unit economics considering the actual costs of computations;
- protected distribution channels that competitors cannot buy with money.
Universal chatbots and thin overlays on others' models have practically lost access to capital. Vertical solutions for healthcare, logistics, finance, and industrial sectors are winning—areas where AI addresses significant and measurable client problems.
Industry Diversification: Not Just Artificial Intelligence
Although AI dominates the statistics, venture capital is expanding its reach. Function Health raised $450 million for preventive medicine, strengthening the position of the healthtech segment. Defense technologies continue to ascend: Anduril is preparing for one of the most anticipated IPOs of the year against a backdrop of record defense budgets. Quantum computing received a public benchmark after Quantinuum's June placement, which raised $1.68 billion. In Europe, long-cycle energy storage, semiconductors, and industrial software are consistently raising rounds in the tens of millions, confirming that deep technologies have become a full-fledged alternative to purely software bets.
Russia and the CIS: Betting on Recovery in the Second Half
The Russian venture market is at the bottom of its cycle and is expecting a turnaround. Following a 40% decline in the number of deals in 2025—to 102 transactions totaling about $159 million—market participants forecast growth of 10-15% by the end of 2026, to approximately 17 billion rubles. Constraining factors remain high key rates and the situation in the foreign exchange market; however, the anticipated easing of monetary conditions by the end of the year could stimulate transactions.
Private and state funds are serving as the drivers of recovery, while the activity of angel investors and corporate venturing remains limited for now. An important event of the week will be the fifth "Venture Landscape" forum, which is set to take place on August 13 at the Moscow cluster "Lomonosov": investors, development institutions, and technology entrepreneurs will discuss the state of the market, approaches to company valuations, and requirements for projects seeking financing.
Outlook for Investors: Navigating a Overheated Market
On Monday, August 10, 2026, the venture market is experiencing a phase of record yet uneven growth. For funds and private investors, the agenda for the upcoming months appears as follows. First, energy infrastructure for AI is evolving into a separate investment asset class where venture capital, bank lending, and state interests converge—this segment is just beginning to formulate valuations. Second, the open IPO window requires managers to actively engage with their portfolios: companies ready for public offerings command a premium, while funds gain the long-awaited liquidity. Third, the concentration of capital in mega-rounds creates opportunities at early stages where competition for deals is lower, and founder discipline is higher compared to the peaks of past cycles.
The primary risk remains the same—overheating valuations in the upper segment of AI. However, record exits, real corporate revenues from AI companies, and a flow of institutional money distinguish the current upswing from speculative bubbles of the past. The market rewards those who combine a risk appetite with strict selection—and this formula will define the winners of the 2026 venture cycle.
