Venture Market Mid-October 2026: Record Capital Volumes, High Concentration in AI, Major Funding Rounds of the Week, IPO Preparations, and Signals for Funds and Investors

Venture investments in 2026 are on track to reach a historic record, but the market is becoming increasingly uneven. Capital is concentrating in a small group of companies related to artificial intelligence. Last week confirmed this trend: the largest rounds of funding went to cloud AI infrastructure, fintech with AI products, and developers of AI agents. Simultaneously, the market is discussing the revenue quality of AI startups and the sustainability of infrastructure built on debt financing. Below are key events for venture investors and funds.

The Macro Picture: Record Year with Declining Quarterly Momentum

According to Crunchbase, global venture investments in Q3 2026 totaled $159 billion. Approximately 6,000 startups received funding. The quarterly volume decreased by 25% compared to Q2 ($212 billion), but increased by 53% year-on-year. Over the first nine months, startups attracted $679 billion, marking the highest for the same period in recorded history.

• AI Share: $102 billion, or 64% of global venture capital for the quarter.
• Mega Rounds: 27 companies raised rounds of over $1 billion, setting an absolute record: there were 16 such companies in Q2 and 14 in Q1.
• Geography: US startups accounted for $91 billion (57%), with the San Francisco Bay Area capturing 24% of the global total.
• Stages: Late rounds reached $105 billion (+73% year-on-year), while early rounds totaled $40.6 billion (+25%).

American statistics from PitchBook and NVCA reflect the same trend. From January to September, the volume of venture deals in the US reached $515.8 billion, with 82.7% allocated to AI companies. About 90% of funds went to rounds of over $50 million. For startups outside of AI, the market record does little to broaden access to financing.

Key Theme of the Week: AI Infrastructure Attracts Mega Rounds

The most notable deal of the week was the $750 million Series D round for California’s cloud platform Modal, which has a post-money valuation of $15.75 billion. The round was led by Accel, with capital from Kleiner Perkins and participation from Menlo Ventures, General Catalyst, Redpoint, Lux Capital, and others. The company reported that its annual revenue run rate exceeded $1 billion, and platform usage tripled since May.

Investors are funding not only computing but also adjacent segments of AI infrastructure:

1. Salience Labs (Oxford) raised $125 million in a Series B round led by Bullhound Capital, with participation from AMD Ventures and Intel Capital. The company is developing optical switches for GPU clusters.
2. Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) secured strategic investments led by Siemens, reportedly exceeding $100 million. The company has become a "unicorn" and is building supercapacitor manufacturing facilities in the USA for data centers.
3. Labelbox announced Series E funding of over $100 million, including a line of credit. The funds will go towards reinforcement learning platforms and corporate AI agents.
4. Tamr raised $21 million in growth investments from Volition Capital for managing corporate data for AI systems.

The public market, however, is sending a warning signal. On October 14, shares of AI cloud provider CoreWeave sharply fell amid concerns about the cost of borrowing and the sustainability of infrastructure being expanded on debt. For venture funds, this argues for differentiating companies with proven demand from projects whose profitability depends on future capacity utilization.

Fintech: Ramp Increases by $16 Billion in Four Months

According to Bloomberg, fintech platform Ramp raised approximately $1.85 billion at a pre-investment valuation of about $60 billion. The round was led by Dragoneer and Thrive Capital, with a substantial check from Founders Fund. In June, the company raised $750 million at a valuation of $44 billion. Ramp serves over 70,000 companies, and its annual revenue reportedly surpassed $1.5 billion as of last summer. The company did not comment on the round.

This deal underscores the consolidation in the corporate expense management segment. Ramp's nearest competitor, Brex, came under the control of Capital One this year. Ramp is enhancing the AI components of its products, which directly supports its valuation.

AI Agents and Geopolitics: Manus Raises Over $500 Million

Butterfly Effect, the parent company of AI agents developer Manus, closed a round of more than $500 million. Co-investors include Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with participation from Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund. This is the first funding since Beijing compelled Meta to cancel a deal to acquire Manus for over $2 billion. The valuation remains undisclosed, although earlier reports indicated negotiations at the $4 billion level.

The Manus case illustrates that regulatory risk in cross-border AI deals has become a distinct item in due diligence. Investors need to consider not only the technology but also jurisdiction, capital structure, and the possibility of exit through strategic sale.

Deep Tech, Biotech, and Defense: Capital for Long Cycles

Beyond AI, venture funds continue to finance capital-intensive technologies with long payback periods:

• OMass Therapeutics (Oxford) raised $310 million in an oversubscribed Series C round led by Bain Capital Life Sciences, Forbion, and Novo Holdings. The funds will be used for clinical research on therapies for endocrinology and immunology.
• Oratomic closed a $475 million Series B round for developing fault-tolerant quantum computers.
• Sabi received $50 million in seed funding led by Khosla Ventures. The company is creating a wearable “brain-AI” interface.
• Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for maneuverable spacecraft to protect orbital infrastructure.
• Tessolve Semiconductor (India) secured $75 million from Vector Line Capital for international expansion through acquisitions.

Funds and LPs: OrbiMed Raises $3 Billion

The funding side also remains active. Health-focused investor OrbiMed announced it raised $3 billion across two funds. OrbiMed Private Investments X attracted over $1.9 billion for venture deals in life sciences in the US and Europe. OrbiMed Asia Partners VI raised more than $1 billion for growth and venture investments in Asia. In the US, according to PitchBook-NVCA, emerging managers have closed 81 first funds totaling $4.9 billion since the beginning of the year. LP attraction still favors large and established teams.

IPO Window: DayOne Files, Anthropic Clarifies Timeline

The public offering market remains the main channel for returning capital to venture funds. This week:

1. Singapore-based AI data center operator DayOne Data Centers filed for an IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker DODC. Underwriters include Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, BofA Securities, and Citigroup.
2. According to media reports, Anthropic may start its roadshow the week of November 9, about a month later than originally planned. Expected valuation is $1.8–2 trillion. The company has not officially confirmed the timeline.
3. The case of SpaceX, the largest IPO in history (June 2026, valuation of $1.77 trillion), serves as a reminder of post-offering volatility. Reports indicate that by the end of July, company shares lost about half of their peak value.

Russia and CIS: Market Contracts, Focus on Strategics

The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to a report by the Moscow Venture Fund, in the first half of 2026, investors put in 4.6 billion rubles, nearly 48% less year-on-year. The capital shortage is exacerbated by a tight monetary policy. Investors are focusing on robotics, IT, and artificial intelligence. The primary exit scenario is the sale of a stake to a strategic investor rather than an IPO. The Moscow Venture Fund announced the allocation of 250 million rubles to tech companies and expects about 1 billion rubles in co-investments.

Risks and Conclusions for Venture Investors

Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, pointed out the issue of "revenue quality" in AI. He suggests that a significant portion of AI companies' revenues comes from other AI startups that themselves rely on venture funding. For funds, this leads to several practical conclusions:

• Distinguish run rate from ARR. The annual revenue run rate in consumption-based infrastructure does not equate to contract recurring revenue.
• Analyze deal structure. The headline amount of a round may include credit lines and secondary stock sales.
• Consider client concentration. Dependency on venture-backed AI companies creates a chain of mutual risks.
• Account for regulatory risk. The Manus case shows that an exit through a sale can be blocked at the state level.
• Diversify beyond AI. Biotech, quantum technologies, defense, and industrial deep tech provide alternative sources of returns.

The takeaway of the week: the global startup and venture investment market remains generous but increasingly selective. Capital is flowing to companies that control the infrastructure, data, and customer relationships necessary for commercializing AI. For funds, key selection criteria in Q4 2026 will be revenue quality, discipline in valuations, and realistic pathways to exit.