The increase in the crack spread – the difference between the cost of crude oil and the final price of petroleum products – appears to be quite realistic, considering the decline in Urals prices. According to Argus, the average price of Urals in November 2025 was $44.9 per barrel, marking the lowest level in the past five years. Consequently, the cheaper the raw material, the more profitable the production of petroleum products becomes.

However, several caveats need to be made.

Firstly, the volume of petroleum product exports from Russia is currently at multi-year lows. According to S&P Commodities Insight, maritime deliveries of petroleum products from Russia, which exceeded 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) at the beginning of 2024, decreased to 2 million b/d by November 2025.

Secondly, due to the embargo, Russia is not conducting maritime shipments of petroleum products to EU countries, which accounted for three-quarters of Russian diesel fuel exports before 2022. In turn, deliveries to the Asian market are partially constrained due to infrastructural limitations on the Russian Railways (RZD) network: it is no coincidence that, according to RZD, the loading of oil and petroleum products decreased by 5.2% in the first eleven months of 2025 (down to 179.6 million tons).

However, in December 2025, maritime exports of petroleum products may increase due to a partial stabilization in the operations of refineries. If in August 2025, petroleum production in Russia decreased by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, and in September 2025 by 5%, then in October 2025, it increased by 6.6%.

Therefore, in December 2025, both the volume and the profitability of diesel exports to the global market may rise.

Source: Vedomosti