According to various indicators, the industry appears to be stabilizing. Rosstat has recorded a decrease in retail gasoline prices for five consecutive weeks. Moreover, in October 2025, the production of petroleum products in Russia increased by 6.6% compared to the previous month. Finally, on the exchange, prices have retreated from the multi-month highs reached in September and October.

In this context, one would expect the export ban to be lifted. The extension of restrictions seems to be associated with a cautious approach in case of unforeseen repairs at refineries. Therefore, oil producers will have to "wait it out" for a couple more months. It is also important to remember that the moratorium on the suspension of the dampener will remain in effect until early May 2026.

Practically, this may result in a new surge in exchange prices, which will also be reflected in retail prices. Oil companies are likely to recoup external losses through the domestic market.

Source: Vedomosti